THE SOVIET UNION IN CRISIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002200140001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 23, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/08/10: CIA-RDP83M00914R002200140001-6
27 September 1982
NOTE FOR: Michael Q. Wheeler
Staff Secretary
National Security Council
Per your request, attached are
comments on the Richard Pipes lecture
forwarded by your memorandum dated
23 September 1982.
xecu a ecre ary
Distribution:
ADVANCED COPY - LDX'd
Original - Addressee
ER
1 - ES Chrono
MI.(27 Sept. 1982)
NSC review completed.
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Notes on Pipe's Speech
Page 4: "Decline of Soviet economic growth" vice "Decline of the Soviet
economy."
---growth of GNP in the 1950s "almost 6 percent per year"
--now less than 2 percent per year
.--coming decade, growth likely to remain below 2 percent
Page 4: Capital investments aren't being drastically reduced; their rate of
growth has been cut markedly.
--Soviet worker produces only two-fifths as much as his American
counterpart
Page 5: Low productivity was a serious problem in Russia in 1980. Because
of low productivity, Russia was still poor and backward.
"Improvements in Soviet production," vice "Improvements in Soviet
productivity."
Agricultural production has increased in the past 17 years by 33
percent (1965-81) according to our calculations. The point is that
the investment costs have been extremely high, and the supply of
agricultural products is still not sufficient to satisfy rising
consumer demands.
Machinery imports from West have had a decided impact on the industries
which received them.
Page 7: No evidence that productivity of voluntary brigades plus sobashniki is
twice that of ordinary workers. Probably much less..
Page 13: Allocations to total capital investment and consumer-oriented investment
increased in both the 9th and 10th five-year plans.
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INITIAL
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
UNCLASSIFIED with
CONFIDENTIAL Attachment
MEMORANDUM FOR
Executive Secretary
Central Intelligence Agency
SUBJECT: Lecture to be given by Richard.Pipes
Attached is the text of Richard Pipes' lecture on the Soviet
crisis to be given under USIA auspices in Bonn and Paris. The
forum in Bonn will be either the German Council on Foreign
Relations or the Konrad Adenauer Foundation; in Paris'it will
be the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales. We
would appreciate your comments by close of business on Monday,
September 27, 1982.
Micdael O. Wheeler
Staff Secretary
Lecture on "The Soviet Union in Crisis"
UNCLASSIFIED with
CONFIDENTIAL Attachment
September 23, 1982
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tUPIr ILJLN I IAL
THE SOVIET UNION IN CRISIS
I am confident that the subject of greatest interest to
an audience such as this is practical. politics, which in the
case of an address by a Soviet specialist means United
States policies toward the Soviet Union.- From this perspective,
the. topic of my talk "The Soviet Union in Crisis" -- may
appear academic. It is not. To the extent-that-it seeks to
influence a country's behavior, the foreign policy of the
United States toward that country must be formulated on the
basis of knowledge of what.it is and where. it is going.
Thus, we want to make certain that our policies toward the
Soviet Union can be justified in terms of Soviet developments
rather than of our own wishes or fears. If the premise of
my address is correct, namely that the USSR is in the midst
of an acute crisis of its governing system, then it is
doubly incumbent on us to turn our eyes in this direction,
because the possibilities of doing good or harm with our
initiatives are at present greater than ever.
. pr-Snr--
~,~~ i`vLi a I A L
l r f
Approved For Release 2009/08/10: CIA-RDP83M00914R002200140001-6