LETTER TO HONORABLE WILLIAM J. CASEY FROM A. ALAN HILL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002200240004-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2009
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: September 22, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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DEPUTY DIREG fO~teF8R I LLSg IGENC r 29, 1982
Routing Slip_
TTE FOR: EO/OGI
Dick would like you to tap someone from
our office to be responsible for the
'ttached. Please prepare a short memo to go
-hrough the DDI to the Executive ecre a
Setting him know the name of.'the person you
nave selected. That memo should be to me by
:OB 6 October. Thanks.
DDI
2. C
~p T
ACTION
INFO
. DATE
INITIAL
INITIAL
1
DCI
X
2
DDC
X
3.
EXDIR
X
4
D/ICS
0 WON
5
DI
x
6
DDA
7
DDO
8
DOW
9
Chm/NIC
X
STAT
10
GC
11
IG
12
Compt
13
D/EEO
14
D/Pers
STAT
15
D/OEA
16
C/PAD/OEA
17
SA/IA
18
A0/DCI
19
C/IPD/OIS
20
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EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
For necessary action. Please let me
know name of responsible individual.
NSC review completed.
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24 ep e__.
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
:ATE: 9-23-82
UBJECT: CCNRE :
NUMBER: 077492CA
Interagency Global Tssues
ALL CABINET MEMBERS
Vice President
State
Treasury
* Defense
Attorney General
Interior
Agriculture
Commerce
Labor
HUD
Transportation
Energy
Education
Counsellor
B
CQ 0
V
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AD , FEMA E3000 ^
NASA, EPA i ^
REMARKS:
DUE BY: Noon 11-12-82
wark Group
ACTION
FYI
Baker ^
fir",
Deaver ^
^
Clark ^
^
Darman (For WH Staffing) ^
^
Harper ^
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Jenkins ^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
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CCCT/Gunn D
13
CCEA/Porter ^
CCFA/Boggs D
CCHR/Carleson a
CCLP/Uhlmann
^
CCNRE/Boggs
131,011-
* Also sent to: Secretary of the Navy, Secretary of the Army, and
Secretary of the Air Force.
RETURN TO: ^ Craig L. Fuller t8' Becky Norton Dunlop
Assistant to the President Director, Office of
fnr ('ahinet AfT irc ('ahinet AfTairc
CABINET AFFAIRS STAFMG MEMORANDUM
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EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL ON ENVrRONMENTAL QUALITY
722 JACKSON PLACE. N. W.
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20006
September 22, 1982
Honorable William J. Casey
Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20505
Dear Mr. Casey:
At the request of the President, the Cabinet Council on Natural
Resources and Environment has established an interagency Global
Issues Work Group under the direction'of the Council on
Environmental Quality. The work group is charged with the
responsibility to review, analyze, and evaluate questions on
population, resources and environment raised in recent studies
prepared in the U.S. and abroad. The objectives and scope of
this effort and the information required from the agencies to
fulfill this charge are set forth in the enclosed questionnaire.
.For this effort to proceed expeditiously and lead to useful,
credible conclusions, your personal support is critical. Please
assign responsibility for direction of this project to a senior
policy official within your department or___ag.eenc who will i re
that answers to e ~1 es ions will be returned to CEQ
no later than Friday, November 12. That individual should also
be responsible for identifying the issues in the appendix which
fall under your agency's purview and insuring that they are
appropriately assigned and reviewed.
Nancy Maloley, Council Member, will be calling your office
within a week to follow up with the policy official who will be
coordinating this project for your department.
If disagreements or different perceptions of these issues exist
within your organization, I would welcome a discussion of the
points of contention.
I appreciate your personal attention and cooperation in this
effort.
A. ALAN HILL
Chairman
Global Issues Work Group
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GLOBAL ISSUES QUESTIONNAIRE
Issue Addressed (from ApE,endix)(Example, question 1. a. Population: Growth of.)
Agency Responding
Technical Contact: (name)
(position)
(telephone)
Recognized Authorities on this issue
(Several names, with addresses and telephone numbers where possible)
Brief Bibliography
(List the best published sources bearing on this area.)
Instructions for Questionnaire
A concise and a prompt reply is desirable. Please confine your major
responses to each question to about four pages which will summarize
your best thinking on these issues. Longer responses and important
documents could be provided as addenda to your report.
Question: (Example: A.8. - Indicate what you, and others, consider
appropriate measures of well-being in your areas.)
Response: (Please confine to about four pages.)
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GLOBAL ISSUES REPORT (PHASE 1)
r
Federal Agency Questionnaire
Objectives: Answers to the questions posed below are intended to:
o Produce a sound, up-to-date analytical base for the development
of a perspective on long-term global. population, resource, and
environmental issues.
o Provide a basis for reviewing the data, methodology, assumptions,
projections, and conclusions of previous governmental and non-
governmental studies, including, for example, the Global 2000 Report.
o Identify the strengths and weaknesses of federal agencies to
develop projections useful for long-term policy initiatives.
Parameters:
o Analyses should be carried out for all issues listed in the Annex
within your area of expertise, as well as for any others that you
believe important.
o The time frame of interest is the present to as far into the future
as defensible projections can be made; and backward in time as far
as good historical data permit. This will differ from subject to
subject. For example, population trends can be extended farther
than can energy supply-demand trends.
o Analyses should cover, when data and methodology permit, the world
as a whole; principal regional groupings of countries; and selected
representative countries.
Scope of Effort:
o Answers should reflect the best current thinking of your department.
Cite relevant governmental and nongovernmental studies, including
those with differing views.
Indicate work in progress or specific suggestions of work that
could be done if requested or commissioned.
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2 -
Questions to Agencies:
A. Sector/Issue Analyses
1. What do past and current data, and your best projections,
reveal about trends and likely future conditions in each
of the areas of your resppnsibility? (See Annex for areas
to be covered.) What are the differences or similarities
between your conclusions and those contained in other non-
governmental reports, such as Global-2000? What accounts
for the differences...better data, different assumptions,
improved analytical techniques, recent wori'd events?
2. What are the implications (economic, social, ecological,
strategic) for the United States-of global and regional
trends and likely future conditions? Which of these trends
and conditions would appear to warrant high-priority attention
by the federal establishment?
3. What assumptions were used in the analyses (e.g., regarding
economic growth, technological progress, resource availability,
ecological constraints)? What principal sources of data were
employed... including U.S. private sector institutions and
international organizations?
4. How would greater or lesser growth in population and the world
economy affect the various projections which you described in
question 113...and why?
-S. What recent developments (economic, social, political, techno-
logical), if any, have changed present conditions and future
projections from those predicted in earlier studies?
6. Are there any emerging technological or other changes that are
likely to or may significantly modify the situation over the
next 20 years? What would be the effects on U.S. interests
or conditions?
7. What developments are the most likely to lead to more optimistic
or more pessimistic results in your field in the next 50 years
that could alter the nature of global environmental problems?
8. Indicate what you (and others) consider appropriate measures of
well-being in your areas.
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- 3 -
B. Agency Analytical Capability
1. What were the major analytical tools (e.g., models used in
he analyses? (Briefly describe them, including assumptions
and key variables.) What degree of uncertainty is contained
in your analyses, and what are the causes of it?.'
2. Assess your capability for "providing projections of the
quality needed for long-term policy decisions"...an alleged
deficiency of the federal agencies highlighted in Global 2000.
What is the quality of your data base and analytical tools?
What significant gaps in the data and analytical deficiencies
exist?
3. Provide a brief essay on the nature and quality of the sources
of data used in your analyses and those relied on by others in
the field. What are the important differences between the nature
and quality of the data used in your analyses of the various areas
and those that exist elsewhere within and outside the U.S. Govern-
ment?
4. What recent changes, if any, have been made in your analytical,
and forecasting capability? What improvements do you believe
are desirable in the near term. . .and realistically possible?
Do you have any current activities or plans designed to achieve
an improved capability in the next two to five years?
5. Looking forward, what do you consider to be the most important
indicators for confirmation or refutation of the projections?
For example, what appear to be the critical indicators of climate
change, or human nutrition? Describe when and how such data
becomes available (e.g., vital statistics, oil production data,
etc.).
-6. Indicate significant new modeling and analytical exercises
conducted in your area from 1978 to 1982. Include a retro-
spective examination of past uses of models in light of actual.
results.
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These topics reflect issue areas which should be addressed in the study.
Federal agencies should provide analyses for each of those areas which
fall under their mandate and address any other significant issues which
do not appear on this list.
1. Population
a. Growth of; Rates of Change in Growth and Fertility
b. Migration (rural-urban and international)
c. Birth and Death Rates
2. Human Settlements
a. Urban Growth
b. Urban Services (water, sanitation)
3. Economic Issues
a. GNP
b. Per Capita Income
c. Income Differences Among Nations
d. Non-Monetary Factors in Standards of Living
a. Production and Productivity
b.. Demand
c. International Trade
d. Agricultural Land Conversion/Expansion
e. Agricultural Impacts (pesticides, fertilizer, water, energy)
f. Land-Soil (erosion, salination, waterlogging, reclamation, restoration)
g. Desertification (rates, trends and effects on productivity)
h. Transportation and Distribution
5. Fisheries (Oceanic and Inland, including Aquaculture)
a. Production
b. Demand
c. Environmental Effects
6. Forests (Temperate and Tropical)
Extent-Trends (including rates of deforestation and reforestation
and change in'the forest cover)
7. Water Resources
a. Supply-Demand (industrial, municipal, agricultural) (include price effects)
b. Conflicts Over Shared Water Resources
c. Quality Changes (surface and groundwater)
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8.
Non-Fuel Minerals
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Supply-Demand
International Trade
Conservation Trends
Environmental Impacts
Substitutability
(e.g., waste disposal)
9.
Energy ( Including Coal, Oil, Nuclear, Non-Conventional, Firewood)
a.
b.
c.
d.
Supply-Demand
International Trade
Environmental Impacts
Conservation Trends
10.
Environmental Quality
a. Atmosphere (lower and upper, including acid rain and urban
pollution)
b. Water (marine and fresh; surface and sub-surface)
c. Coastal Areas and Wetlands
11.
Climate
a.
b.
C02 and Deforestation Relationships
Impacts of Change on Agriculture
12.
Biological Diversity/Extinction
13.
Technology
a.
b.
Types
Impacts of (positive and negative)
14.
Political and Institutional Factors Affecting the Global Environment
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