THE SOVIET UNION IN THE 1980S: PROJECT SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002300110014-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2008
• Sequence Number: 14
• Content Type: REPORT

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Mi&W The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University / 1800 K Street Northwest / Washington DC 20006 /Telephone 202 / 887-0200
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
THE SOVIET UNION IN THE 1980s: PROJECT SUMMARY
Background
The Georgetown Center for Strategic and International
Studies is conducting a major examination of the significant
trends and developments within the Soviet Union that will shape
Soviet foreign policy over the next decade. The Soviet Union is
facing critical choices in the political, economic, military, demo-
graphic, technological and social spheres, all of which will affect
its behavior in the international arena. Of these many factors,
seven broad areas stand out as particularly important.
Key Issues
1. The Political Succession
At the recent 26th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party,
no major changes were made in the Soviet leadership. This develop-
ment suggests that when the succession occurs, it will be dramatic.
What will be the effects on Soviet foreign policy? Will the so-called
generational change in leaders make a dramatic impact?
2. ..Economic Developments: The Military, Industry, Agriculture_.and.Ene_rgv
The basic problems of the Soviet economy are fairly well known: --
a decline in overall growth rates, in productivity, in investment, and
in the working age population;. a lagging agricultural sector; and a large
share of resources dedicated to national defense. What are the policy
alternatives for the Soviet Union? Can it have both guns and butter?
If.not, what are the implications of the Soviet choice? What will and/
or should be the role of external economic relation-is? Can or will the
Soviet Union continue to pursue an economic strategy that gives a high
priority to external credits, trade, technology? How will the Soviet
Union's agricultural performance affect its foreign policy behavior
and goals?
Although there are differing assessments about the severity
of the Soviet Union's energy problem, energy policy is also a clear
priority in Moscow. How dependent on imported oil is the Soviet
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Union likely to become? What will be the impact of developments in
the energy sphere on Soviet policy?
3. Demographic Trends and Social Tensions
The balance of the Soviet population is so changing that
ethnic Russians will soon be a minority. Nevertheless, they remain
in-the majority of the key decision making roles in the Soviet hier-
archy. How will the Soviet Union adapt to its changing demographic
character? To what extent will the non-Russian and non-European
elements of the Soviet population play a greater role in Soviet policy-
making? What are the prospects for minority unrest in the Soviet
Union? What will be the likely impact on Soviet economic and mili-
tary structures, and what tradeoffs between them are probable, in
light of the much smaller age groups which will be joining the labor
pool? How will Soviet leaders meet rising consumer demands and dis-
satisfaction?
4. Developments in Eastern Europe
Unlike earlier crises in Eastern Europe, the current crisis
in Poland does not stem from a disloyal or "misguided" Communist
leadership, but a weak leadership confronting social unrest. To
what extent does this crisis reflect a more'general systemic crisis
that could be repeated elsewhere-in Eastern Europe? To what extent
is it a harbinger of development in the Soviet Union itself?
5. The Military
Unlike the political leadership, the military has largely
experienced its succession already, although little is known about
these new leaders. What are their goals, tactics and strategies?
How do they view relations with the West? What level of technological
skill does their weaponry indicate, and how does such weaponry com-
pare with its Western counterparts in numbers and quality?
6. Intellectual and Cultural Life
Soviet society is undergoing considerable changes that bear
on future policy problems. How will the growth of modern communications
technology necessary for development affect the Soviet-leadership's
imperative of a closed society? What are the effects of external
contacts, with both the West and the Third World? Will the status
of Marxism-Leninism change? What is the state of art, religion,
and intellectual life in the Soviet Union today?
7. External dynamics
Just as in the United States, the distinction between domestic
politics and foreign policy in the Soviet Union is increasingly
difficult to draw. External factors will interact with the above
mentioned internal elements to shape Soviet policy creating dilemmas
for the Soviet leadership. Among the external sources influencing
Soviet policy are perceptions (and facts) of the future balance
of power, especially with the United States, questions of political
and military opportunity, relations with the People's Republic of
China, developments in Western Europe and the evolution of NATO,
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rhilitary developments, technological change, and arms control con-
siderations. How are these external factors likely to influence
Soviet policy in light of domestic developments?
Methodology
This 18-month program will be built around in-house and com-
missioned research from the top experts in the Soviet field, seminars
and briefings for the executive and legislative branches of govern-
ment, a major international conference, and a series of publications
designed to reach the widest. possible audience.
In addition to the Project Director
STAT
a Steering Committee of CSIS expects and advisors, the Center has
commissioned a number of authorities in the Soviet field to cover
the various facets of the project. Each broad area outlined above
will be covered in depth by a working group of three or four-scholars
under the leadership of a group chairman. The chairmen, all of whom
represent the most substantive and up-to-date scholarship in their
respective specializations, are responsible for delineating the
boundaries of their research, choosing their group members, and writing
a definitive monograph based on their findings. Group members will
stimulate discussion and write commentaries and critiques of the
chairmen's papers.
Communications
CSIS will communicate the findings of its study to the widest
possible audience, not only in government but in the business and
and academic communities as well. The Center will use a variety
of publication vehicles, including articles in the Washington Quarterly,
pieces in the nation's leading newspapers and a special series of mono-
graphs produced by the chairmen and the working groups. The culmination
of the project will be a major volume drawing chapters from each working
group into a cohesive entity under the editorship of the Project Director.
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In addition, the Center. will sponsor Congressional meetings,
CSIS roundtable discussions in various cities, special corporate
briefings, and a variety of other forums for participants to share
their findings.
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