YUGOSLAVIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002700060007-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 4, 2007
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 3, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700060007-4
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
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Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700060007-4
 Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700060007-4
SECRET
3 December 1982
MEMORANDUM F R: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Yugoslavia
1. There is a very good DDI intelligence assessment dated 22 November 82
entitled "Yugoslavia: The Strains Begin to Tell" (attached). The question
of what to do to help Yugoslavia's position will come up early in the year,
perhaps.as early as January.
2. I think we should do a quick SNIE on what the Soviets might do to
abort a Western rescue effort with responses like these and others you will
think of:
-- As they have in the past, the Soviets could punish Belgrade by
cutting oil shipments.
-- Or they could cut the level of Yugoslavian-Soviet countertrade,
which has I believe doubled in the last few years.
-- Either of these actions, if not countered, would devastate the
Yugoslavian economy.
-- Alternatively, the Soviets could so to speak bid against the West
by boosting oil shipments and enhancing the terms of trade.
-- The Soviets could also offer weapons to the Yugoslavian military
forces on terms the generals couldn't refuse. A strong alliance with the
Yugoslavian army would be immensely valuable to Moscow.
3. Then we should go on to consider what measures would be available to
the West to any such Soviet countermeasures--oil s..ipply, weapon supply, etc.
4. It might be entitled "Likely Soviet Responses to We ern Initiatives
in Yugoslavia."
William J. Casey
SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700060007-4