NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 1 OCTOBER 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000400030003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 1, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
1 October 1981
Top Secret
CO NID 81-229 IX
1 October 1981
COPY 227
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Top Secret
Poland: Soviet Criticism Mounts . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Western Europe - USSR: Gas Pipeline Developments . . . .
1
Egypt: Restrictions on Students . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
Zaire: Possible Loss of IMF Funds . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Moscow is dissatisfied with the course being taken by the
second session of SoZidarit 's congress and the absence of counter-
measures by Warsaw. 25X1
TASS yesterday tersely reported a statement on Tues-
day by the Polish Politburo that criticized Solidarity
but expressed "hope" that union moderates would prevail.
TASS suggested that this hope is inconsistent with the
draft program under consideration at the congress, which
it called a political "manifesto" that seeks to end
"socialist ownership." 25X1
TASS ignored Solidarity's attempt in union documents
to placate Moscow by reaffirming Poland's postwar alli-
ances. Moscow, citing a gibe at the Polish regime in
a Czechoslovak article, also stated that counterrevolution
cannot be smashed with "appeals." 25X1
The Solidarity congress, meanwhile, has settled down
to a lengthy discussion of its draft program, a process
that could last until the weekend. The delegates then
are slated to elect a new union leadership. Andrzej
Gwiazda--a leading militant who currently is a deputy
chairman--reportedly will run against the current head
of the union, Lech Walesa, for the office of union chair-
man but has little chance of drawing significant support.
Debt Renegotiations
Negotiations to reschedule Poland's unguaranteed debt
to private banks have broken down following the Poles'
insistence on rescheduling all principal payments and pos-
sibly interest payments as well. Before meetings this
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week in Vienna, Poland had seemed close to accepting the
banks' terms of rescheduling 95 percent of principal and
no interest payments.
I
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WESTERN EUROPE - USSR: Gas Pipeline Developments
The conclusion of agreements for the supply of turbines and
compressors for the gas pipeline that is to connect Siberia with
Western Europe leaves agreement on gas rites as the last major
hurdle in the negotiations. 25X1
In agreements signed or due to be signed this week
the Soviets placed orders for the turbines and compres-
sors with companies in Italy, West Germany, France, and
Great Britain. Several companies also were selected to
serve as project managers for their respective parts of
the pipeline and will be responsible for subcontracting
for auxiliary equipment, services, and construction on
the compressor stations using their equipment.
West German firms reportedly were disappointed that
they received a much smaller share of the orders than
expected because Italian and French firms offered cheaper
financing. In a related development Japan's export-import
bank has signed a protocol to finance e ui ment for use
in and around the compressor stations. 25X1
The West European turbines and compressors report-
edly will include US components or licensed technology.
Should there be an embargo against their export, the West
European firms probably can develop equivalent technology
within two years. Because the pipeline itself is not ex-
pected to be in place before 1985, Soviet equipment needs
probably could be met independent of US technology with
only a slight delay. 25X1
There apparently has been no progress on gas prices
between the Soviets and West European distributors. So-
viet willingness to sign equipment contracts before a gas
price is agreed upon, however, probably indicates that
they are now prepared to make concessions on the price
in order to complete the negotiations. Talks between
Ruhrgas and Soviet gas export authorities are set to
resume on 8 October. 25X1
Previous West European concessions on low-interest
credit for equipment purchases, combined with the current
oil glut and the decline in projected West European demand
for gas, almost ensures that the Soviets will meet West
European price terms. Ruhrgas executives state that they
will withdraw if they cannot negotiate a satisfactory
price. 25X1
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Egyptian authorities are taking a tough line toward
fundamentalist Islamic activity among university students
in an effort to prevent unrest when the academic year
begins early this month. A series of disciplinary meas-
ures have been ordered to control and monitor student
activities, including a ban on traditional Islamic garb
on campus. The government is concerned that the student
Islamic societies--which have been the dominant activist
force on campuses in recent years--will protest President
Sadat's domestic crackdown in which some 150 leaders of
the societies were arrested. Sadat has publicly threatened
more wides read arrests of society members if trouble
develops. 25X1
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Zaire may at least temporarily lose access to its
three-year, $1.1 billion loan from the IMF, which would
have far-reaching repercussions for the economy. Although
and ruin Mobutu's plans for economic recovery.
President Mobutu is coping with his budget deficit at
least for the time being with the help of an advance pay-
ment of $30 million from Zaire-Gulf, inflation is running
far in excess of the rate anticipated by the IMF. Dimin-
ished foreign exchange receipts have forced Zaire to de-
lay paying over $100 million in foreign debts due by
today. Failure to meet IMF criteria in these areas could
jeopardize the $87 million that Kinshasa is scheduled to
receive this month as the second installment of its loan
from the IMF. Loss of Fund support, even for a short
period, could set the stage for a major series of defaults
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1 October 1981
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