NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 5 OCTOBER 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000400030018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: October 5, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
5 October 1981
Top Secret
rn Nm R1_7?f1X 25X1
COPY 2 2 9
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Contents
Poland: Moderates Gain Time . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yugoslavia: Leadership Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zimbabwe-USSR: Holding Relations to a Minimum . . .
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The compromise resolution on workers' self-management endorsed
by Solidarity's congress is a tactical victory for union moderates
that allows time for further negotiation of differences between the
government and the union. 25X1
There apparently was little support for a militant
proposal flatly rejecting the law, which was passed by
parliament on 25 September. Instead, the delegates di-
rected the new union leadership to organize a referendum
on objectionable parts of the law in what seems to be an
effort to bring about amendments or to ensure implementa-
tion on favorable terms. 25X1
Solidarity leaders evidently will have some latitude
in carrying out this directive; no deadline for a refer-
endum was set. They also can use the threat of the
referendum to bring pressure on the regime as the two
sides negotiate the vague areas of the legislation--
especially the issue regarding which directors will be
chosen by workers' councils.
The government's announcement of price increases for
a small number of consumer goods--effective today--has
angered many delegates and prompted Solidarity leader Lech
Walesa to send a telegram to Premier Jaruzelski demanding
their recision. In a conciliatory gesture to the newly
reelected union leader, Jaruzelski quickly dispatched two
ministers to Gdansk to-consult with Solidarity. The
ministers' justifications for the price hikes were re-
jected during a heated session, and Walesa again demanded
recision of the price hikes. 25X1
The Solidarity leadership is interpreting a recent
letter from the head of the Hungarian trade union organi-
zation offering to "discuss and debate" the role of
unions as a hopeful sign that Solidarity can find some
common ground with other East European unions. The Hun-
garian message--which declined Solidarity's invitation
to its congress because of its "antisocialist, anti-
Soviet" platform--is the first offer of a dialogue by any
regime-controlled trade union in Eastern Europe. Hungarian
motives are unclear--the message may be nothing more than
rhetoric--but the-act I ion presumably will not please 25X1
Moscow.
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Moscow has not initiated any significant new depar-
tures in its public commentary on the congress in recent
days, although it is sustaining its critical line. The
Soviets are keeping pressure on Warsaw by citing continued
calls for firmer government action from elements in the
Polish party and populace. They are continuing to attack
"extremists" in the Solidarity leadership but are also
pointing to ositive" voices being raised from the floor
at Gdansk. 25X1
The Soviets have reported, but not commented on,
Walesa's reelection. Unless some particularly provoca-
tive anti-Soviet statements are made at Gdansk, Moscow
is likely to withhold a more definitive indication of
its future course until after the congress, which appar-
ently will continue at least until tomorrow.
Top Secret
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YUGOSLAVIA: Leadership Changes
The resignation from the party presidium last week
of a longtime Tito confidant is the most significant
leadership change since Tito's death and probably opens
the door to similar personnel changes. Before Petar
Stambolic resigned on Thursday, the leadership had been
reluctant to reinvigorate the 23-man presidium that
existed when Tito died. Stambolic was one of only three
in the leadership who held positions in both the top
state and the party bodies. His replacement suggests
that the double incumbencies of Kosovo's Fadilj Hodza
and Croatia's Vladimir Bakaric also may end soon.
The appointment of Dragoslav Markovic, head of
the Federal Assembly, to replace Stambolic tends to
strengthen Serb nationalist forces in the party leader-
ship. Markovic has been in the lead in Serbia's drive
to increase its authority over the troubled Kosovo Prov-
ince; he has been at odds with another Serb leader, Milos
Minic, who believes such efforts risk inflaming Serb
nationalism. Minic, however, has no independent power
base in Serbia and is not likely to find much support 25X1
for his more moderate views.
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ZIMBABWE-USSR: Holding Relations to a Minimum
economic assistance talks has been rebuffed. Salisbury
has responded favorably only to an offer of scholarships
President Mugabe continues to block Moscow's efforts
to improve relations beyond the establishment of diplo-
matic ties, begun last February. A Soviet offer to open
for technical studies in the USSR.
Moscow also has not been able to persuade Salisbur
to establish a diplomatic presence in the USSR.
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