NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 9 OCTOBER 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000400030038-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: October 9, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of I IO secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
9 October 1981
Top Secret
CO I
Copy 2 2 9
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Egypt: Additional Unrest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Poland: WaZesa Wins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Western Europe: Attitudes Toward the EC . . . . . . . . 5
? 25X1
Brazil: Political Atmospherics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Finland: Election Maneuvering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
UN: Campaigning for Secretary General. . . . . . . . . . 8
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The attacks yesterday by Islamic fundamentalists on-three
police stations in the town of Asyut suggest that Vice President
Moubarek's government will face a continuing challenge from ex-
tremist terrorists.
Asyut is a traditional center of fundamentalist
strength and has often been the scene of Muslim-Coptic
clashes in the past. Cairo and Alexandria remain calm,
and Egyptian security forces are mobilizing to prevent
any outbreaks of violence in the capital during the
funeral tomorrow.
The violence in Asyut indicates that the regime has
failed to neutralize the clandestine Islamic fringe, de-
spite recent arrests of Takfir members. The government
appears to have underestimated the strength of the Is-
lamic opposition and additional terrorist attacks seem
likely. 25X1
Nonetheless, there is no indication that extremist
fundamentalists have gained extensive popular backing or
have undermined the loyalty of significant elements of
the military. Although Libyan media continue to call for
a popular uprising against Moubarek, most Egyptians seem
to have accepted the legitimacy of the new government.
The largest Islamic organization, the Muslim Brotherhood,
reportedly has decided to d t a wait-and-see approach
to the Moubarek regime. 25X1
Saudi leaders, although saddened by Sadat's death,
apparently will not send any official message of condo-
lence or a representative to the funeral.
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ATTENDANCE AT THE SADAT FUNERAL
The list of dignitaries named so far to head funeral delegations includes:
Argentina
Foreign Minister Camilion
Liberia
Chief of State Doe
Australia
Deputy Prime Minister Anthony
Belgium
King Baudouin
Foreign Minister Nothomb
Brazil
Joint Chiefs of Staff Member Werner
Canada
Governor General Schreyer
China
Vice Premier Ji
Denmark
Prince Henrick
Foreign Minister Olesen
France
President Mitterrand
Foreign Minister Cheysson
Indonesia
Minister of Religion Prawiranregara
Israel
Prime Minister Begin
Italy
President Pertini
Foreign Minister Colombo
Japan
Foreign Minister Sonoda
Netherlands
Prince Claus
Foreign Minister Van Der Stoel
Norway
Crown Prince Harald
Prime Minister Brundtland
Oman
Deputy Prime Minister Bu Sa'id
Portugal
Assembly Speaker General Eanes
Spain
Foreign Minister Perez Llorca
Sudan
President Nimeiri
Sweden
Princess Christina
Prime Minister Falldin
United Kingdom
Prince Charles
Lord Carrington
Uruguay
Foreign Minister Valdez
West Germany
President Carstens
Chancellor Schmidt
Foreign Minister Genscher
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25X1
Union Leader WaZesa won a major victory in the voting yester-
daz' for the union's new presidium despite opposition from militants.
Walesa's aides described him as "very happy and
enthusiastic" about the membership of the newly elected
executive committee, most of whom are apparent supporters
of Walesa. The three militants who ran against him for
the chairmanship of the union failed to win seats on the
presidium. 25X1
The election of 11 members of the 12-person body
came after some angry shouting matches and heated pro-
cedural disputes in the National Commission earlier in
the day. Despite his victory, the union leader will
still have to contend with pressure fr militants and
25X1
restive local union chapters.
~ 7
Walesa indicated in a conciliatory interview with
the official Polish media that he wants to resume nego-
tiations with the government as soon as possible. An
ebullient Walesa left for Warsaw immediately after the
elections, perhaps to begin laying the groundwork for
but can provide no quick fixes for food shortages.
threatened local protests over recent price increases
and continuing food shortages. The government has
offered to compensate consumers for the price increases
The new Solidarity leadership is under pressure to
make some gains in talks with the government because of
In the interview Walesa also sought to undercut
criticism of the political planks of the union platform
by asserting that his goal is to change Solidarity from
what he admitted is a "social movement" into a genuine
trade union. His cryptic reference to the need for some
new legal organization to deal with other subjects
raised at the congress--presumably non-trade union is-
sues--will reinforce the suspicions of regime hardliners
that Solidarity still has wider ambitions. The party has
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scheduled a Central Committee meeting on 14 and 15
October, almost certainly to set i rategy following
the Solidarity congress. 25X1
Soviet Pressure
Initial Soviet commentary at the conclusion of the
Solidarity congress suggests Moscow will keep pressure
on the Polish regime to act firmly against union radicals
and resist union efforts to play a "political" role.
A TASS dispatch yesterday described the new Solidarity
program as "counterrevolutionary" and quoted charges
by a Polish journal that the union has broken its agree-
ment with the government.
Moscow may be using the threat of reduced economic
aid to put pressure on the Warsaw regime to act firmly.
In turn, Polish authorities may use the Soviet threat to 25X1
induce Solidarity to moderate its position.
Soviet
planning chief Baybakov said last month that Moscow would
not allow the Poles to continue running a substantial
trade deficit with the USSR after next April. It is
unlikely, however, that Moscow has in fact made a final
decision on future aid to Poland.
the Soviets will continue their sub-
stantial aid to Warsaw next year, and Soviet Premier
Tikhonov implied as much in recent remarks to the West
Germans. Moreover, the Soviets have approached Western
banks for $1.5 to 2 billion in hard currency loans, some
of which may be for Poland.
The negotiations for 1982 trade have only just begun,
and the Polish and Soviet positions can be expected to
change as talks continue. Moscow will likely seek to
prolong the talks and use the resulting uncertainty to
its political advantage.
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Public support for European unification and for continued
membershi in the EC is in-a, according to a Community-sponsored
poll. 25X1
In the UK, support for unification fell to 52 percent
from 63 percent last year. Moreover, 61 percent of those
polled favor withdrawal from the Community. The number
of West Germans who believe that EC membership is a good
thing has dropped from 66 percent in 1979 to 49 percent.
25X1
Continued disagreements over reform of the Community's
budget and the expensive agricultural policy probably are
key factors contributing to the decline in support for
the EC
The survey also may adversely influence current
proposals for increased EC foreign and security polic
cooperation
Govern-
ments may be hesitant to increase the authority of the
Community, however, if popular support for the institu-
tion is decreasing.
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BRAZIL: Political Atmospherics
A favorable prognosis for President Figueiredo's
recovery from the heart attack he suffered last month
and the performance of Vice President Chaves--who is
well regarded in both military and civilian circles--have
helped to calm apprehension about the prospects for the
political liberalization process. Should Figueiredo be
incapacitated for an extended period, however, divisions
in the armed forces would become more pronounced. None-
theless, a majority of the military probably would prefer
to retain Chaves rather than face a prolonged national
crisis.
Top Secret
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FINLAND: Election Maneuvering
The government has decided to extend President
Kekkonen's sick leave by one month until 10 November,
thus putting off a probable presidential election until
next year. A medical report sent to the Cabinet indicates
a slight improvement in Kekkonen's condition, but most
political leaders believe that there is no chance that
he will resume his duties and that new presidential
elections will have to be held. Prime Minister Koivisto,
the Social Democratic Party leader who is officially
filling in for Kekkonen, remains the front-runner to
succeed the President. The extension, however, will
allow other parties additional time to rally support
for their candidates. 25X1
The Center Party, which has played a key role in
political decisionmaking during the Kekkonen era, is
focusing its campaign on Koivisto's inexperience in
foreign affairs. The party leadership is touting its
candidate, former Foreign Minister Karjalainen, who has
been influential in promoting economic cooperation and
trade with the Soviets.
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 UN: Campaigning for Secretary General.
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to cultivate good relations with Third World members.
Secretary General Waldheim plans to fight for the
Security Council's endorsement of his candidacy for a
third term as Secretary General. He believes that he
has a chance to build on the plurality of support he
has in the Council. He is supported by the UK, France,
and the USSR, but he needs Chinese and US support.
Beijing, however, evidently plans to support Tanzanian
Foreign Minister Salim--at least in the early balloting--
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