NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 17 OCTOBER 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000400030068-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 68
• Publication Date: October 17, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

\ Director of 1 op secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
17 October 1981
Top Secret
CO NID 81-242JX
17 October
Copy 229
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Poland: Pressure on Solidarity . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Lebanon: Leftist Attacks on the Government . . . . . . . 3
Western Europe: Disagreement on CSCE . . . . . . . . . . 4
OPEC: Dwindling Current Account Surpluses . . . . . . . 5
Turkey: Political Parties Dissolved . . . . . . . . . . 7
Netherlands: Government Resigns . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Senegal - The Gambia: After the Coup . . . . . . . . . . 9
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POLAND: Pressure on Solidarity
Party leader Kania's attack yesterday on Solidarity, combined 25X1
Union leaders will react vigorously to this unex-
pected strike ban and will view it as a major drawback
in their economic talks with the government, which began
on Thursday. As a matter of principle they would not
risk the anger of the rank and file by surrendering--even
for a short time--Solidarity's chief weapon. If the re-
gime presses this issue--such a measure must be authorized
by the parliament--Solidarity probably will feel compelled
to follow through with its threatened general strike next
week. 25X1
he act more forcefully against Solidarity.
Kania's call for a prohibition against strikes dur-
ing the fall and winter in his speech to the party's
Central Committee was partly for economic reasons. This
proposal and the purge of liberals now under way, however,
were also in response to hardline critics' demands that 25X1
fen the union leaders' posture in negotiations with the regime.
This most explicit attack by Kania on the union will
force its leaders to defend themselves against the charge
of having political ambitions--something union moderates
had tried to play down at the recent congress. Kania,
seconded by Politburo member Olszowski, accused elements
in Solidarity of wrecking the economy in order to take
over political power. 25X1
The rash of wildcat strikes and strike alerts in at
least eight provinces over shortages of food, especially
meat, will put pressure on Solidarity to avoid making
concessions during the talks. The union is asking for
increased control over the distribution, export, and
rationing of food, and Solidarity's chief negotiator said
that, unless the talks ended "satisfactorily," Solidarity
would call the general strike. The government, meanwhile,
yesterday rejected Solidarity's proposal for a rnment- 25X1
union "social council" to oversee the economy. ove
The government does not have the capability to in-
crease food supplies and cover meat rationing commitments.
Despite the recent procurement price hike, farmers have
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contracted to supply only about one-half as much meat to
the state in the next three months as they did in the same
period last year; they can get much higher prices in black
market sales. In addition, the government's chronic prob-
lem in supplying farmers with coal in exchange for meat
will become more difficult because of the drop in coal
output resulting from the dispute between the government
and the union over Saturday pay for miners.
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The Muslim leftist National Movement is sharpening its
attacks on the government in an apparent effort to broaden Muslim
support for restructuring the Christian-dominated political system
before the presidential election next summer.
The three-week-old campaign initially focused--
probably with Syrian collusion--on the government's
reluctance to move boldly to implement the declarations
of the Arab Conciliation Committee on severing Phalange
ties with Israel and opening traffic crossings in Beirut.
The principal target of the campaign has been Prime
Minister Wazzan, the ranking Muslim in the government,
who is especially vulnerable to Muslim criticism.
Movement spokesmen, led by Communist Action Orga-
nization chief Muhsin Ibrahim, recently have shifted
their attacks to more fundamental Muslim grievances,
including Christian dominance of the 23,600-man Army,
and have accused the government of siding with the
Phalange on key issues. Some observers in Beirut
believe, however, that Ibrahim's real goal is to use
the attacks to launch the Movement's campaign for
fundamental changes in Lebanon's current power-sharing
arrangements as the presidential election approaches.
Wazzan has obtained support from several old-line
Sunni Muslim figures and Christian leaders. He has
sought to deflect leftist criticism with personal state-
ments supporting the reorganization of the Army and
defending Palestinian claims that they should be exempt
from any implementation of the Conciliation Committee's
proposed ban on arms shipments through Lebanese ports.
The National Movement's renewed attack on the
government will aggravate longstanding confessional
differences. If it continues, other major factions are
likely to begin similar campaigns, focusing on their own
basic grievances rather than on the more overriding
problems of maintaining the cease-fire in Beirut
keeping the Arab conciliation process alive.
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WESTERN EUROPE: Disagreement on CSCE
Allied and neutral participants are urging the US to make
concessions on human rights and security issues that are unresolved
at the CSCE review session in Madrid. 25X1
is possible without the link to security issues.
Other allies consider that further human rights progress
The UK, speaking for the EC states at the North
Atlantic Council meeting on Monday on CSCE strategy, said
that the EC no longer believes the West should insist on
a meeting of human rights experts after the review session
in order to balance a conference on security issues.
Norway believes that Western participants should be
pleased with the human rights progress already achieved. 25X1
In addition, the EC states are anxious for the US
to drop the word "continent" from its formulation of the
area to be covered by a post-Madrid security meeting.
They believe that it is too restrictive and is not needed
to exclude the Azores from CSCE jurisdiction to protect
Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force transit. Portugal
has indicated that it considers "Europe" to include the
Azores, whether or not the word "continent" is used in
The reliance on the EC--as opposed to the NATO--
forum by the allies for coordination of Western positions
on CSCE is increasing as they sense widening differences
between themselves and the US. The allies hope to persuade
Washington that Western unity can best be maintained in
Madrid if the US is willing to make compromises that they
believe are required to ensure that the CSCE process
continues.
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1981
(estimated)
1982
(projected) a
OPEC
109
62
39
Algeria
2
-1
-1
Ecuador
b
-1
-1
Iraq
7
-14
-11
Kuwait
14
11
9
Libya
9
-3
-1
Nigeria
5
-6
-6
a Based on a unified bench mark price of $34 per barrel.
b Negligible.
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OPEC: Dwindling Current Account Surpluses
OPEC's current account surplus is likely to fall from $110
billion in 1980 to about $60 billion this year and $40 billion in
1982.
The reduction will show up in improved current ac-
count balances among the OECD countries. What little
relief the less developed countries are getting from stable
oil prices is being lost to higher interest costs on their
mounting foreign debt. 25X1
The organization's oil sales will decrease to about
20.5 million barrels per day this year, 9.3 million less
than the record level of 1977 and 4.5 million below 1980.
While Saudi Arabia maintains its exports at the level of
1980, Iran and Iraq together will export less than 2
million barrels per day--about half as much as in 1980--
and other OPEC countries will export nearly 25 percent
less than last year. Oil revenues, down $25 billion,
will be supplemented by $40 billion in earnings on in-
vestments. 25X1
OPEC imports this year are likely to be $155 billion,
up 16 percent from 1980. Iraq has increased imports
Nigeria, Libya, and Algeria continue high levels
of purchases despite payments deficits. Nigeria in
particular must curb imports soon to conserve foreign
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6 25X1
17 October 1981
or enough votes to obtain a parliamentary majority.
Andreas Papandreou's Socialists still have an even
chance of unseating the center-right New Democracy in
national elections tomorrow, even though the Socialists
appear to have lost much of their momentum during the
closing weeks of the campaign. New Democracy, led by
Prime Minister Rallis, has recovered much of the ground
it had lost to Papandreou because of a poorly organized
start. The Socialists, nevertheless, attracted the
larger crowds, and most of the opinion polls--although
generally unreliable--still give them either a plurality
ask the leader of the party with the most seats to put
together a minority or coalition government. The new
government would face its first confidence vote within
a few weeks after parliament convenes on 16 November.
President Karamanlis and other Greek observers
believe that neither of the two major parties is likely
to obtain the absolute majority--151 seats--needed to
form a stable single-party government. In that event,
Karamanlis would be required under the constitution to
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The military council yesterday disbanded political
parties, whose functions had been suspended since the
military takeover a year ago. The move opens the way
for the creation of two or three new parties that are
internally more democratic once the constituent assembly--
scheduled to convene next Friday--produces a new con-
stitution. The council, however, is unlikely to sanction
any new parties until late 1982 or early 1983--after a
constitutional referendum and the passage of laws on new
parties and elections. 25X1
tion of the council's reforms after it steps down.
In any event, the military probably will retain for it-
self a substantial political role to ensure the continua-
The generals appear determined to inject new blood
into the political system in an effort to end the bickering
that characterized past parliamentary politics, but they
may not insist that former Prime Ministers Demirel and
Ecevit be permanently excluded from the political process. 25X1
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NETHERLANDS: Government Resigns
Top Secret 25X1
Prime Minister van Agt's month-bld center-left
government fell yesterday following disputes between
the coalition partners over budget proposals. Queen
Beatrix would like the three-party government to con-
tinue in office and is likely to retain van Agt in a
caretaker capacity and appoint a respected political
figure to try to find a compromise economic program ac-
ceptable to both van Agt and Labor Party leader den Uyl.
A formula to hold the coalition together probably will
be found because most Dutch politicians do not want
new elections now and because Labor leaders are re-
luctant to give van Agt a chance to form a government 25X1
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SENEGAL - THE GAMBIA: After the Coup
tary police as a first step toward integration.
has absorbed loyalist remnants of The Gambia's paramili-
Senegal is pushing for a political union with The
Gambia by the end of the year as the price for restoring
the Jawara government to nominal power after the coup
attempt in July by Marxist rebels. Tentative plans
envision a loose confederation that initially would
preserve each country's identity and government. The
Senegalese Army, which continues to keep order in Banjul,
Complete integration, however, may take years.
Gambian elites believe a merger would cost them consid-
erable political and economic power. In addition, there
are distinct linguistic and cultural differences--
Senegal is French-speaking and The Gambia is a former
British possession. France, which maintains a major naval
base in Senegal, and the UK have quietly endorsed the
idea as a positive development for regional security
and Western interests.
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