NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 31 OCTOBER 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000500010023-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: October 31, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
31 October 1981
Top Secret
25X1
cto er I Y61
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Poland: Political Maneuvering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
USSR - Western Europe: Gas Pipeline Negotiations . . . . 4
France-Africa: Summit in Paris . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
China-Us: Pressure From Beijing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Thailand: Another Troop Alert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Tunisia: Legislative Election . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
OPEC: Impact of Price Accord . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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POLAND: Political Maneuvering
Party leader Jaruzelski yesterday chose a moderate course b
not confronting Solidarity with a legal ban on strikes. 25X1
He called on the union to heed a parliamentary
resolution--which lacks the force of law--demanding an
immediate end to strike activity. If that resolution
is ignored, he threatened to seek parliamentary authori-
zation for the government to use "extraordinary means
of action," something that could, point to a legal strike
ban or a "state of emergency."
Jaruzelski, in effect, has temporized on the issue,
trying to deflect hardline pressure for an immediate
strike ban while forcing Solidarity to control wildcat
strikes. At the same time, he has reduced his maneuver-
ing room by publicly committing himself to a tougher
course of action if labor unrest continues.
The regime threat to take away Solidarity's strike
weapon could hinder the union leadership's attempts to
end continuing wildcat strikes. The union announced
Thursday that it will consider disciplinary action to en-
force its own ban on strikes. Union militants can argue,
however, that such action by the leadership would threaten
its credibility with the rank and file by creating the
impression it is giving in to government threats.
Ministerial changes announced by Jaruzelski are
partly intended to invigorate management of the economy.
Three deputy premiers were given broad powers to oversee
economic and trade union affairs.
Although the changes are also designed to give the
appearance of broadening the base of government support,
the appointees are not likely to enjoy the confidence
of Solidarity and the Church. They include the head of
the Communist-allied Democratic Party and an activist
from a regime-sponsored Catholic organization.
Opposition from party hardliners may have prevented
Jaruzelski from making more significant changes. He
might try instead to bring representatives of Solidarity
and the Catholic Church into his proposed new mechanisms
for government consultation with representatives of
society. Parliament could act on such proposals at its
final session today.
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in time for President Brezhnev's visit to Bonn in late November.
USSR - WESTERN EUROPE: Gas Pipeline Negotiations
Moscow's concessions on Siberian natural gas prices--the last
major hurdle--could bring the pipeline negotiations to a conclusion
25X1
anism earlier this month. The Soviets lowered their
price offer to the West German Ruhrgas Company from
$6 to $5.20 per million BTU, but the West Germans ap-
The Soviets and the West Europeans narrowed their
differences on the base price and price escalation mech-
parently are holding out for a price nearer $4.50.
Moscow also dropped its demand that future price
increases be tied only to crude oil prices. The Europeans
insist that the price escalator must be tied to a group
of alternative fuels if Soviet gas is to be competitive
Ruhrgas probably 25X1
will resolve its remaining differences with the Soviets
before mid-November. Ruhrgas believes that Brezhnev's
impending visit will enable it to s ueeze additional con-
cessions from the USSR. 25X1
The government in Bonn also would like to see agree-
ment on the project soon, but apparently it is not push-
ing.Ruhrgas to conclude a contract. After an agreement
is reached by the Soviets and West Germans, contracts
with the other European buyers probably will follow
quickly.
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High-level talks beginning on Tuesday between senior French
and black African officials will focus on the situation in Chad
and on African hopes for more French aid.
Heads of state and representatives from over 25
black African countries are expected to attend. France
began annual summit meetings in the early 1970s to keep
in touch with its 14 former colonies and to strengthen
ties with non-French-speaking states such as Cape Verde
President Mitterrand will urge African leaders to
proceed with plans to send an OAU peacekeeping force to
Chad as soon as possible. He may announce the extent
of French logistic and financial support for troops from
Francophone countries such as Senegal and Togo. Paris
is looking to the US to underwrite forces provided by
Nigeria, a former British possession.
subversion in their countries.
African leaders will voice concern about deteriorat-
ing economic conditions and are likely to seek promises
of greater aid. They almost certainly will sound out
France on additional military aid to counter Libyan
Although some African leaders question the willing-
ness of the Mitterrand government to help them, France
has been indicating that it plans to continue substantial
project aid and bugetary support.
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CHINA-US: Pressure From Beijing.
Beijing is continuing to try to use the recent
Soviet offer to reopen border talks to influence US
policy toward the USSR. A Chinese Foreian Ministry
official told China 25X1
is dissatisfied with conciliatory gestures by the US
toward the Soviets. The official said that China will
not alter its basic policy toward the USSR but that
Beijing's response to the Soviet proposal to reopen
border talks will be influenced by its understanding of 25X1
removal of the grain embargo and reflect concern that
arms control negotiations between Washington and Moscow
could provide the basis for a broadened dialogue.
The official's comments are in line with other signs
of Beijing's uneasiness over such US actions as the
THAILAND: Another Troop Alert
Thai troops went on alert yesterday for the second
time in a month, apparently to intimidate "young Turk"
military officers pardoned following the unsuccessful
coup in April. Assistant Commander in Chief Athit, who
reportedly ordered the alerts, may be trying to
strengthen his own position by appearing to contain a
threat to national security and by neutralizing the
recurrent coup rumors and unsolved bombing incidents
have been perpetrated by "young Turks" seeking to under-
mine the government. These officers, however, do not
opposition.
have sufficient backing in the military to assume power.
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TUNISIA: Legislative Election
The ruling party expects to win a large majority
tomorrow in the first contested parliamentary election
since 1959. Prime Minister Mzali, the author of the
political liberalization program, is counting on the
election to strengthen his prospects for eventually
succeeding President Bourguiba. Government supporters
have harassed and disrupted the efforts of opposition
groups, particularly the Social Democrats. The recently
legalized Communist Party has shown surprising strength
during the campaign.
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OPEC: Impact of Price Accord
The OPEC price agreement will have no impact on the
current soft oil market, although there will be an in-
crease of about $1 in the weighted average price of OPEC
crude oil. It will not affect current OPEC production
because the Saudi production cutback from 9.5 million to
8.5 million barrels per day will be balanced by increases
from other producers, particularly Nigeria.
If Algeria and Libya maintain prices at the upper
limit of the range, as expected, Nigeria will add as
much as 500,000 barrels per day in additional sales in
the short term, and Libya and Algeria will eventually
be forced to lower prices to be competitive with Nigeria.
Even with a freeze through 1982, OPEC exports are unlikely
to rebound before mid-1982. Excess oil stocks are still
being drawn down, and oil consumption probably will re-
main depressed through the middle of next year.
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