ASSESSMENT OF PRC HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANS AND TECHNOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00951R000100030022-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2007
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 16, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
You might want to pass this along
to Mr. Lawson.
STAT
r.
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Central Inteilgence Agency
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Lee Peters
Bureau. of Oceans and International
Environmental and Scientific
Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
16 MAR 1982
SUBJECT: Assessment of PRC. Hydroelectric Power Plans
and Technology
The attached memorandum is in response to your request for
an up-to-date assessment of current PRC hydroelectric development
plans and technology. We hope this information will be useful
to you and to the members of the PRC-Hydroelectric Exchange.
E. WAYNE BORING
Director
Scientific and. Weapons Research
Attachment:
SW M 82-10016
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SUBJECT: Assessment of PRC Hydroelectric Power Plans and
Technology
Distribution:
1 - Addressee
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - Executive Director
1 - DDI Registry
1 - D/OSWR
1 - C/Pubs Group/OSWR
1 - OEAA/China
1 - NIO/EA
1 - C/STD/SWR
1 - CSTB/STD/SWR
1 - CSTB/STD/SWR
1 - CSTB/STD/SWR
1 - CSTB/STD/SWR
1 - OGI/ED/TEC
OSWR/STD/CSTB~ I(10 March 1982)
1 --1
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Central IntdH nce Agency
vnczosos
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
10 March 1982
China: Technical Requirements for Hydroelectric Developments
Su Mary
China has the world's largest hydroelectric generating potential, but
only a small fraction of these resources have been developed. The Chinese
government is seeking domestic development and exploitation of hydropower
to account for 30% of the total national power production by the turn of
the century in order to free other energy resources such as oil and coal
for foreign exchange. While small and medium scale hydropower projects
are at or near state-of-the-art quality, large projects will require
significant foreign assistance. China lacks sufficient monetary resources
and much of the sophisticated technology necessary for success in other
than medium and small scale projects. China's severe shortage of electric
power is a major obstacle to modernization. Without power, new factories
cannot start up and existing factories cannot operate on a regular
schedule. The Chinese estimate that 20 to 30 percent of their existing
industrial capacity cannot be used because of power shortages. These are
caused by poor planning and outmoded technologies in every aspect of power
generation - from location and development of primary energy sources, through
energy utilization in power stations, to the transmission of electricity.
Operation of the Wuhan steel mill in Hebei has been adversely affected by
such problems. Despite their ambitious plans for the mill, the Chinese
discovered that the electricity in Hebei was insufficient to operate the
plant at projected capacity
.This memorandum was prepared byl 25X1
Office of Scientific and Weapons Research, coordinated 25X1
with the Office of East Asian Analysis. Comments or questions may be
directed to the Chief, Science and Technology Division, OSWR, extension
r i
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The recent economic retrenchment has postponed many of China's plans
for large hydroelectric projects. However, if funds become available through
low cost loans, China will seek foreign assistance in its hydro design,
construction, generation and transmission technologies. China in developing
its abundant hydropower will reap ancillary benefits such as flood control,
irrigation and water transport. Where hydroelectric power plants replace
coal-fired ones, the railway system will be relieved from some of the
burden of coal transport. As a world leader in exporting hydroelectric
equipment, the US is especially interested in assisting China's hydropower
development.
25X1
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introduction
China's theoretical hydropower potential is 580,000 megawatts
(MW). This is approximately three times that of the US. Of this
potential, 380,000 MW is exploitable, making China one of the
world's leading countries in water power resources. China has
developed only 3 percent of this exploitable potential, however,
and there are significant opportunities for future development.
.Currently hydroelectric power accounts for approximately 17
percent of China's electric power. By the year 2000, the Chinese
hope to use hydropower for 30% of their electric power output.
Most will be by indigenous development, with some foreign
assistance.
China, with a very pressing need for electric power
generation, must build dams, reservoirs, and power plants if it
is to harness its major waterways, such as the Yellow and Yangtze
Rivers. As a result of China's economic retrenchment, large scale
hydroelectric projects such as Ertan, Datengxia, Longtan, and
Three Gorges apparently will be postponed. Emphasis will be on
small (less than 12 M4) and medium scale (less than 200 M,4)
projects. The only large dam in progress is the Gezhouba (2700
MW) .
With more than 90,000 small dams, China is the world's leader
in developing small scale hydroelectric power. These systems have
been used to electrify small villages and towns and to power
rural industries. The Chinese mini-hydro plants can be built with
local labor and materials. As a result, China can meet local
power needs without using scarce national funds and resources.
Since 1960, China has been exporting small hydroelectric
generating sets. China has begun construction, under UN auspices,
of a Training Center for International Small-scale
Hydroelectricity. This center will train technicians in hydro-
electric construction, design, and survey as well as management
personnel for hydropower stations in developing countries.
At present China is opting for the development of small and
medium-scale hydroelectric plants because China has the resources
and ability to construct them quickly with no need for foreign
assistance and no need to tie-up large amounts of capital for
long periods. But China has no choice but to construct huge dams
if it plans to harness its biggest rivers such as the Yellow and
Yangtze Rivers.
China needs foreign assistance on large (300 MW or above)
turbine generators and long distance high voltage (500 kV)
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transmission equipment. China also needs foreign consulting
services in engineering design and dam construction in order to
speed up construction time and eliminate costly design errors. At
this time, China does not have the monetary resources to build
large scale dams unless it can obtain foreign financing at
preferential rates, such as the 1500 MW Wuqiangxi project now
financed by a Japanese loan.
in the near term, China will continue to acquire information,
send its engineers overseas for training, obtain specific
consulting services, and seek assistance in dam design and
possibly also in planning multiple purpose projects. it will
also continue buying advanced equipment such as microprocessors,
computers, communication equipment, large generators and
turbines, and heavy earthmoving trucks, which cannot he easily
manufactured domestically. 25X1
Once China starts to build major hydroelectric projects such
as Three Gorges, there will be significant opportunities for
foreign companies that have dealt continuously with China.
Besides providing professional services for design and
.construction projects, and supplying heavy construction equipment
and advanced technical equipment, foreign companies may be
invited to participate in joint development projects.
To be successful in trade with China, foreign companies will
need to be familiar with Chinese trade habits and the specific
technical, social, and cultural environment of China. Chinese
standards of engineering practice are not necessarily the same as
those of industrialized countries. A primary difference in China
is that manual labor, which is cheaper and more readily
accessible, is used more than mechanical equipment. An
illustration is the project at Gezhouba where thousands of
unskilled laborers were employed to quarry rocks by hand. Recent
U.S. visitors to the hydroelectric development project at
Liujiaxia on the Yellow River noted that the project is entirely
Chinese in design, equipment, and construction. Liujiaxia
illustrates a Chinese ability to mobilize human resources for
important projects.
of foreign involvement in hydroelectric resources development.
The following sections discuss China's technical capabilities
and requirements for foreign assistance in construction,
generation, and transmission of hydropower and the current status
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China has built 13,000 large dams in less than 30 years. it
has accumulated experience in surveying, designing and building
hydroelectric power stations. Of the ten big hydropower. stations
completed or under construction, six have dams over 100 meters
high; the highest, at Wujiandu, reaches 165 m. 25X1
The success or failure of any hydroelectric project depends
on the crucial early phase survey and design work. Inadequate
survey and. design studies ultimately result in waste and
problems. At some sites, landslides caused by large, poorly
designed reservoirs have reached a magnitude of several hundred
meters. The Chinese ability to analyze, predict, prevent, and
control landslides is primitive. China also needs assistance in
solving problems of dam structure vibration and water stream
washout which could affect bank stability and cause abutment
instability. Large computers are desirable to solve vibration
problems for which the Chinese still rely on manual computation.
25X1
Many large power stations in China will be built in active
earthquake regions. Reservoir filling-induced earthquakes- have
already occurred near some Chinese hydroelectric power stations.
To insure safety in high dam construction, indigenous research
needs to be supplemented by advanced methods of numerical
analysis from abroad. China lacks sufficient laboratories and
computer facilities to investigate soil dynamics in earthquake
regions 25X1
Because of the complex topographic conditions of China's good
potential dam sites, Chinese dam designers need foreign
assistance. In regions having large hydroelectric potential, high
mountains and deep valleys make construction and transportation
difficult. China still lacks the advanced technology to dig where
there are serious fragmented tectonic belts and dredge where the
river beds are covered by sand pebble layers over 100 meters
thick. Engineering modeling methods are needed to find optimal
techniques for digging, dredging, filling dams with concrete,
using anchor steel reinforcements, and handling dam stress. Again
the lack of good computer facilities has hampered China's
attempts to use model tests and finite element methods to solve
problems in rock stability. For example, the Chinese are
investigating various spillway layouts at dam sites in narrow
river valleys. They need advanced studies of spillway surface
curvature to solve overflow problems of high arch dams and
hydraulic problems in high waterhead overflow, such as analysis
of turbulent boundary layer and gas admixture. 25X1
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To support the construction of large hydroelectric projects,
China has recognized the need for multipurpose development plans
which coordinate land acquisition, population resettlement in
inundated territory, relocation of factory and mining
enterprises, telecommunications and transport routes, and
environmental protection.
Foreign assistance will be needed in all phases of high dam
construction. China's planned large scale hydroelectric projects
such as those at Three Gorges, Ertan, and Longtan will all have
dam heights over 200 meters. 8ecause water pressure is so much
greater at these high dams, their design and associated hydraulic
equipment will require advanced engineering techniques. The
highest existing dam in China is Liujiaxia, with a height of 1.47
meters. Other high-dam construction problems that will need
foreign assistance include survey, design, and research work
regarding the high flood levels at the dam sites, complex
geological conditions, high water head, large flow and flood
discharge, stream diversion during construction, large
underground tunnel excavation for power houses, location of
central control facilities, rock crushing for filled dams,
waterproof dam materials, excavation, measures for minimizing the
excavation required, and debris removal.
Two I70 MW capacity domestically manufactured turbines have
gone into operation at Gezhouba. These two low-head turbines were
jointly manufactured by the Dongfang Power Equipment Plant and
the No. 2 Heavy Machinery Plant in Sichuan Province. The two
generators can produce more than 1.9 billion Kwh per year, the
equivalent electricity generated by 1.8 million tons of coal or
one-half million barrels of crude oil. With the expertise gained
from operating these two 170 MW turbines, we expect that the
Chinese will encounter no major problems in the nineteen 125 MW
turbines to be installed at Gezhouba. However, to develop a 300
MW turbine and later the more ambitious 1000 MW! turbine for the
Three Gorges Project, the Chinese will have no choice but to seek
foreign assistance.
Corrosion of water turbines caused by cavitation is a serious
problem affecting the turbine life expectancy. Current Chinese
methods to solve the problem of cavitation in sandy water are
either to install the turbine at a greater depth or to use a low
speed hydraulic turbine. These methods will not be effective in
large power stations. instead China needs foreign assistance to
develop proper erosion-resistant steel materials. It also needs
foreign assistance-to conduct model tests of hydraulic structures
5X1
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in cavitation tanks.) 25X1
China plans to computerize its power station control systems
to improve operating efficiency. Microprocessors are needed for
power station automation. Other computer-related items China
needs to purchase abroad are peripheral interfaces, programable
interval timers, interrupt controls and CRT controllers, digital
input devices, and analog output devices.
to delay the progress of their electric. network.
The Chinese have also started to build their first
in order to utilize its hydroelectric potential, China needs
500 kV ? alternating-current power transmission systems to
efficiently transmit power to users over long distances and to
allow the systems to carry increased power loads. The present
transmission system of 110 kV, 220 kV, and 330 kV networks is
inadequate to transmit power from the large dams.
ways to protect their transmission equipment if they don't want
stolen from a section in Hubei. Thus the Chinese have to find
China's first 500 kV transmission network is the Pingwu line
with a total length of 600 km and an initial power capacity of
500 MW. It supplies electricity to Henan and Hubei Provinces from
the Yangtze River Gezhouba Hydropower Station. This network
employs Japanese, French and Swedish 750-Mva single phase
transformers, switches, inductors, relay protectors and control
devices. It also uses domestically manufactured steel cables,
porcelain insulators and other auxiliary devices. This line is
not yet operational because large quantities of angle steel,
bracing wires, conducting wires, and other materials have been
very far from the region of major loads. They require foreign
planned. China realizes that its major hydraulic resources are
,Mongolia. Three other 500 kV transmission systems are being
domestically manufactured 500 kV transmission system in .Inner
assistance in ultra high power 'transmission manufacturing
technologies capable of large capacity transmission (several
million kTa) over long distance (greater than 1500 km.)
Foreign Assistance in Hydroelectric Resource Development
Foreign technology, financing, and project management are
needed to develop China's hydroelectric resources. China is
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evaluating and comparing the skills, products, costs and
financing methods offered by firms and government agencies of
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, West
Germany, France, Japan, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland,
United Kingdom, and the United States. China views financing at
preferential rates for hydroelectric resources development as the
first priority in its search for foreign assistance. So far the
three major sources of development loans have been Japan, the
United States, and the World Bank.
The 1500 MW Wuqiangxi Project is financed by a Japanese loan.
interest on this loan is three percent, with thirty years to
repay plus a ten year grace period. Although the Japanese loan is
nominally untied, Tokyo's financing of the Wugiangxi project has
reinforced Japan's leading position in the competition for
contracts on the project. 25X1
Among the other foreign nations involved in China's hydro
development, the United States is currently the country best
qualified to challenge Japan's leading position because of the
availability of US funding from the Trade and Development
Program. Although countries like France, Germany, Italy, Canada
and Brazil have the technological skills to challenge the United
States and Japan, they have not offered loans comparable to those
of Japan.
25X1
China's policymakers have clearly indicated that China has
little interest in seeking foreign technical assistance in the
1980s unless foreign government funds are also available at
acceptable interest rates. Sweden, Canada, and West Germany have
provided free technical training for Chinese hydro engineers. If
they can also provide attractive funding, China will most likely
expand its sources of hydropower assistance by including these
countries. So far only Japan is known to have offered feasibility
study financing. Companies from Norway, West Germany, Brazil and
others are still at the stage of negotiating for contracts but
nothing definite has emerged. It is apparent that the bottleneck
is due to financial considerations.
Besides assistance from Japan and the United States, the
World Bank has emerged as an important source of funding for
China's hydroelectric projects. Under the overall aegis of the
World Bank, the US firm IEC has been selected to perform
consulting services for the Lubuge Project on Hongshui River and
the Shuikou Project in Fujian Province. Also the Australian firm
Snowy Mountain has been selected by the World Bank to conduct a
feasibility study of Lubuge.
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There is current evidence of China's continued interest in US
technical assistance. As of February 1982, foreign assistance in
tunneling technology and DC transmission systems wi'_l be needed
in Tianshenqiao, an already approved project. China's ministry of
Electric Power industry expressed the view that this may lead to
a major project for US companies in the area of engineering
design and construction, tunneling, and turbine generators if
Export-Import Bank funding can be obtained.
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