EAST ASIA WARNING ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00951R000100030031-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2007
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: March 30, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83T00951 R000100030031-0
lllll L)ul-82
SECRET
National Intelligence Council
30 March 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Assistant NIO for East Asia
SUBJECT : East Asia Warning Assessment
1. The following items were discussed by the Community Representatives
at the 24 March Warning Meeting.
2. Warning -- There are no developments in the East Asia area under this
heading
3. Regional Developments
a. US-PRC -- It was observed that relations are stagnating.
Depending on the state of negotiations and future US arms sales to Taiwan,
they could retrogress. The Assistant NIO for Warning postulated a more
pessimistic outcome seeing no Chinese flexibility and almost certain
downgrading of US-Chinese diplomatic relations if the US does not make further
concessions.
b. Kampuchea -- The Vietnamese dry season offensive is the most
successful since 1979. The capture of the Khmer Peoples National Liberation
Front (KPNLF) base at Sok Sonn has neutralized the KPNLF and dampened ASEAN
hopes of their playing a role in any future resistance coalition. The
Democratic Kampuchea (DK) forces have suffered less significant losses in
territory and forces. We expect PAVN to next turn against resistance elements
in Kampuchea northeast of Aranyaprathet, Thailand. This will cause increased
refugee flow into Thailand and result in border clashes with Thai forces.
Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83T00951 R000100030031-0
 Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83T00951 R000100030031-0
Distribution
Copy 1 - DCI
2 - DDCI
3 - ER
4 - C/NIC
5 - VC/NIC
6 - DDI
7 - NIO/W
8 - NIO/EA Chrono
9 - DDI Registry
Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP83T00951 R000100030031-0