EAST ASIA WARNING ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00951R000100090004-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2007
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: September 23, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04112 :CIA-RDP83T00951 8000100090004-4
Approved For Release 2007/04112 :CIA-RDP83T00951 8000100090004-4
 Approved For~Rel~ase 2007'/011-2": C1P,-R[~P~3T00951F~~00~00090004-4
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THIE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
23 September 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH Nation 1 Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM :~-klar..A]si _P .__
NIO at Large
SUBJECT East Apia Warning Assessment
STAT
The following item were discussed by the Community Representatives at
the 22 September warnin meeting.
I. Warning -- There were no warning items this time in the East Asia
II. Procedural Alert -- The Upcoming North Korean Winter Training
Cycle: There is need for especially thorough intelligence coverage and
analysis of these upcoming exercises, particularly in view of the very wide
differences of interpre ation which still exist as to just what form these
exercises will take, an whether they will cloak actual aggressive intent.
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STAT
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Approved For Release 2007/04112 ~ -RDP83T00951 8000100090004-4
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III. Regional Developments
A. Sino-Soviet Developments -- Low level contacts will continue to
increase, and the temper of rhetoric will probably decline somewhat -- but
with neither side backing away from its major positions in the near future.
B. Kampuchea -- The prospects for Sihanouk and his movement are not
bright, militarily or politically. One of the chief problems is a lack of
food for his troops; this has been a ma,ior impediment to recruiting.
C. Spratly Islands -- This quiet scene could change radically if and
when oil deposits are found in the area.
STAT
STAT
STAT
STAT
p, harto's Visit. No si.nificant controversial issues are
expected STAT
/~
Harold P. Ford
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elease 200 - 837009518000100090004-4
 Approved For Release 2007/04112 :CIA-RDP83T00951 8000100090004-4
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Approved Far Release 2007104/12 :CIA-RDP83T00951 8000100090004-4