EAST ASIA AGENDA FOR 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00951R000100120009-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2007
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: November 30, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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Notional Intelligence Council
NJTE FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: EA Agenda for 1983
30 November 1982
Senior Intelligence Community managers
working on East Asia have a tradition of meeting
' informally for lunch once a month. At our
meeting of 27 October, the SNIO, the DIO, the
Director of East Asia of IFJR and I decided to
identify for our principals the key intelligence
issues coming up in 1983 in East Asia and support
the list of issues with a calendar of major events.
We have also prepared a few recommendations for
collectors and analysts. If you wish to talk
with members of the luncheon grou it can be
arran ed at our convenience.
cc: DDCI
C/NIC
ill also be invite .
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FDIC 9701-82
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTEIIlGENCE
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH Chairman, National Intelligence Council
30 November 1982
FROM David D. Gries
ational Intelli ence Officer for East Asia
25X1
Defense Intelligence Officer for East Asia and Pacific
25X1
Wever Gim
Director, INR/East Asia and Pacific
SIGINT National Intelligence Officer for Asia
SUBJECT East Asia Agenda for 1983
1. East Asia should remain relatively stable in 1983. Nonetheless,
potential leadership changes, Sino-Soviet relations, uneven economic
performance, and adverse military trends. will test bilateral relations with
several countries.
2. As a consequence, intelligence collection and analysis wil] have to
address these broad subjects in 1983:
-- Leadership chan es. Japan's Nakasone is not likely to make
significant c~s in policy toward the US. The possibility of a
return to Labor Party rule in Australia and New Zealand, however,
could result in decreasing military cooperation with the US. The
leadership of China, Taiwan, North Korea, Vietnam and Burma is in
transition with continuity of existing policy uncertain for years
beyond 1983.
-- Sino-Soviet relations. The dialogue between Chinese and Soviet
ea ers cou ea to improved trade relations and possibly to some
reductions in forces along the border, but major differences are
likely to persist over Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Chinese
support for resistance forces in Kampuchea, and other issues.
-- Economic performance. East Asia will continue to grow faster than
other Thir World areas, though Indochina and the Philippines are
notable exceptions. North Korea's foreign debt problems will not be
resolved. Japan's trade balances and surplus in current accounts
will continue to cause friction. Chinese economic growth will be
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SECRE~
erratic and the US role in it, especially in petroleum, will be
significant. Technology transfer will be an issue of increasing
importance: US to China; Japan to the USSR, China and North Korea;
and Japan to the US and China.
-- Military trends. Most military trends in East Asia will remain
a verse, as growth and modernization in the Soviet Far East, North
Korea, and Vietnam continues to outpace military programs in
neighboring countries. The North Korean military buildup and two-
.front war strategy will remain the most dangerous threat in the
region. Japanese military capabilities will continue to fall short
of US expectations.
4. Amore detailed calendar for East Asia in 1983 is attached.
2
SECRET
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