Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
December 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 8, 2004
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP84-00022R000200070005-1.pdf550.69 KB
Approved For Re, se 2004/09/2 : 1 84-00022RO 200070005-1 OFFICE OF RESEARCH XID REPORTS PROGRESS REPORT MISSION Under the broad mission of CIA, the Office of Research and Reports has three main responsibilities: a. Coordinate the production of intelligence in the economic field. b. Produce certain economic intelligence studies required to supplement those produced by other intelligence agencies or to fulfill requests of the Intelligence Advisory Committee. co Perform certain services of common concern. 2. COORDINATION ORR has made the following progress in the fulfillment of its coordination function: a. NSC Action 282 -- During 1950 ORR undertook, at die request of the National Security Council, a survey of the requirements of the US Government for foreign economic intelligence related to the national security and of the facilities and arrange- ments of the Government for fulfilling those require- ments. This survey was completed in May of this year. It revealed that: (1) twenty-four agencies of the Government collected and analyzed substantial amounts of i nfor_;iation concerning one or more aspects of foreign economies. (2) no single agency was responsible for assessing the relevance of the data thus collected to problems of national security or for mobilizing this data in support of the national security. (3) there was no system by which the data collected could be located quickly for use by a single agency. Approved For Release 2004/09/23 Sf 184-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For l ,lease 2004/09/25 1 E[r 84-00022WO200070005-1 (4) no agency was responsible for identifying gaps in the total information available and taking action to fill the important gaps. The National Security Council, in its Intelligence Direc- tive No. 15, has charged the CIA with remedying these deficiencies. The CIA, in turn, has established an Economic Intelligence Committee to assist in the fulfill- ment of these responsibilities. The Committee is chaired by the Assistant Director for Research and Reports and is composed of representatives of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, and Air. It is contemplated that other agencies such as the Economic Cooperation Administra- tion, Comnmerce, and Treasury will be invited to participate as matters concerning them arise. b. Economic Intelligence Committee -- Vhile the Economic Intelligence Committee is not yet fully under way, ORR has been preparing major problems for presentation to the Committee. Attention is being focussed initially on the economy of the Soviet Orbit because of the importance of Soviet economic capabilities at this juncture and because of the difficulty in obtaining direct access to facts about the economy. It is planned that the attention of the Committee will later be ex- tended to other parts of the world. (1) Research Program ORR has been working on a coordinated program for the production throughout the US Govern- ment of urgently needed intelligence on the economy of the Soviet Orbit. This work has begun with an analysis of what is already available and what is needed. This program is being discussed with the other intelli- gence agencies through the medium of the Iconomic Intelligence Committee and the advice of distinguished experts on Soviet economic matters is being sought. Later a similar program will be developed for other areas. (2) Source material in Government files Another problem in the coordination of intelligence is to insure that the material in the Government is indexed and accessible to users. In the absence of a satisfactory Approved For Release 2004/09/23SE 184-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Ree 2004/09/23 : CE00022R00M00070005-1 system for turning up material already in Washington a great deal of expensive effort to collect needed data may be wasted, and important questions that could be answered with the data remain unanswered. In order to correct this situation, ORR has been conducting a preliminary survey of documents relating to economic matters in Russian and satellite languages now on file in other agencies of the Government. It is hoped to uncover all important collections of material to acquaint all important users with its existence, and ultimately to provide machinery for extracting from all this material quickly and efficiently all the information relating to given problem. (3) Requirements for information from the field Another problem in the field of coordination is that of arranging for the collection of needed data so that: (a) the needs of all important users of the data are taken care of by one collection action (b) collection action will not be frustrated by endless prior coordina- tion in Washington. These contradictory ends can best be achieved by continual coordination of research work among the users of economic data and by direct contact between the users and the collectors. The entire problem of data collection is being discussed with the other intelligence agencies through the medium of the Economic Intelligence Comnittee. In the meantime, the Department of State has asked CIA to coordinate requests for economic data directed to the Foreign Service by the intelli- gence agencies. (Li) Inventory of Special Skills A great deal of technical talent in economics and related fields is scattered throughout the Government. In order to have access to this Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : -$$-000228000200070005-1 Approved For Rel se 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP84-00022R0Q-00070005-1 SFCRET talent, the analysts of ORB. have begun to collect data on the location of the other analysts in the Government who are exoert in their particular field of responsibility. The goal is for each ORR. analyst to be able to call personally his opposite number in any agQncy in order that he might have the benefit of the best expertise available. 3. PRODUCTION The major substantive undertaking of ORR is the performance of authoritative basic research on the economy of the Soviet Orbit. In the past, the Government has depended on broad generalizations and estimates of economic factors that were prepared on the basis of limited evidence and ad hoc analysis. The aim of ORR is to find all the facts available and submit them to exhaustive analysis in order to arrive at the firmest possible conclusion. This work, in many cases, involves elaborate fitting together of many small fragments of informa- tion in order to arrive at a single aggregate figure. Such an approach consumes both time and personnel, but is essential at this time because of the importance of the economic capa- bilities of the Soviet Orbit vis-a-vis the non-Soviet world and our inability to obtain these data by more conventional methods. Inventory -- The first step in the ORR program of basic research into the economy of the Soviet Orbit was an industry by industry and co modity by commodity inventory of the knowledge already available, with particular attention to identifica- tion of the important gaps in that knowledge. This was followed by a similar inventory covering the European satellites. Research -- ORR is now entering a period of intensive research designed to fill the most important gaps identified in the course of the inventory of our knowledge of the Soviet economy. Within six months another inventory will be made in order to find out how well the gars have been filled and to identify those parts of our knowledge that are the weakest. This work is being coordinated with that of the other agencies through the medium of the Economic Intelligence Com ittee. Approved For Release 2004/09/2 F(CR- P84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Rase 2004/09/235 i84-00022RO A200070005-1 c. China -- Little research has been done in the United States Government on the economy of China since that country passed into the Soviet Orbit. ORR is preparing to extend its basic research to cover China as well as the USSR and the European satellites. 4. SERVICES OF CO1,2JON CONCERN a. The National Intelligence Survey Program (1) Purpose - The NIS Program was established pursuant to NSCID No. 3 of 13 January 191G8. Essentially, this directive provides that: (a) An outline of all basic intelli- gence required by the Government shall be prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency in collabora- tion with other appropriate agencies. (b) This outline shall be broken doin into chapters, sections, and sub- sections which shall be allocated as production and maintenance responsibilities to CIA and those other Government agencies best qualified by reason of their intelli- gence requirements, production capa- bilities, and dominant interest to assume these responsibilities. (c) This basic intelligence shall be compiled and continuously maintained in National Intelligence Surveys (NIS) to cover foreign countries, areas, or broad special subjects, as appropriate. (d) The NIS shall be disseminated in such form as may be determined by the Direc- tor of Central Intelligence (DCI) and the agencies concerned. Approved For Release 2004/09/2:W14DP84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For ReI Se 2004/09/23$ 84-00022R0 00,0?00070005-1 (e) The DCI shall be responsible for coordinating the production and maintenance and for accomplishing the editing, publication, and dissemi- nation of the NIS and shall make such requests on the agencies as are neces- sary for the proper development and maintenance of the NIS. (f) Departments or agencies to be called on for contributions to this under- taking may include agencies other than those represented permanently in the Intelligence Advisory Committee. (2) Progress (a) There have been produced altogether the approximate equivalent of 12 complete NIS. In addition, there have been prepared base maps for 45 NIS Areas, and Gazetteers for L.2 NIS Areas, comprising about 425,000 standard geographic names. The pro- duction schedule for the present fiscal year calls for the additional produc- tion of ap proximately the equivalent of 10 complete IBIS, base maps for 23 NIS Areas, and Gazetteers for 12 NIS Areas. Provision is also being made for the initial preparation of the major portion of the NIS on Japan by US activities in Tokyo. (b) The progress of the NIS Program, how- ever, cannot be gauged solely by a statistical compilation. For the first time, the field of basic intelligence has been organized into a single program in which each intelligence agency has a definite area of responsibility con- cerned with basic intelligence collection, file maintenance, and production. This ensures a minimum of duplication and deficiency and assigns to each agency tasks for which it is most suited. Likewise, the review- and editing of the Approved For Release 2004/0 t;! - RDP84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For ReIse 2004/09/23 : CIAL 00022R0QW00070005-1 SAW NIS contributions by the CIA provides definite intelligence standards against which the contributing agencies can determine the adequacy of their on capabilities. Moreover, the use of the uniform set of NIS outline requirements permits a logical and firm basis for the proper development of basic intelligence by all the intelligence agencies. b. Geographic Intelligence -- ORR's work in the geographic intelligence field is a service of long standing and poses few problems out of the ordinary. The coordination of geographic intelligence production has been improved through successful cooperation with producing components in other agencies. There has been a marked increase in the research support given to CIA operations and the cartographic program has continued to supply newly con- structed maps for inclusion in National '.Estimates and for other intelligence purposes.- The coordination of requirements for the procurement of current maps and related materials from foreign and domestic sources has been successful and has resulted in the acquisition of valuable material for both intelligence and operational purposes. 25X1A ~. INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT In addition to formal production, ORR makes intelligence available to certain agencies on an informal continuous day-to- day basis and through membership on inter-agency committees, as follows : Approved For Release 2004/09/23SFO y84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Reese 2004/09/23 : CI- 022R0Q,;00070005-1 a. Special Co mittee on East-West Trade of the National Security Council -- This Committee the trade of all countries with the Soviet bloc, especially in making recommendations to the NSC as to determinations under the Kern amendment. b. Interdepartmental Working Group on Economic Problems of the UN Collective Measures Committee -- ORR has participated from the inte licence viewpoint in the preparation of a number of papers for the use of the US representative to the UN Collective Measures Committee. c. Advisory Committee on Export Policy, Operating Committee, and R-Procedure Si coin ittee - These committees advise the Secretary of Commerce in the determination of our export control policies and programs. ORR support comprises formal intelligence production, submitted directly to the Committees or through member agencies, and informal review in Committees of intelli~~ence aspects of export control policies and operations. d. Inter-agency support to US delegations to international conferences on export control -- ORR, in cooperation with OIR, Department of State, prepares memoranda on the strategic importance of items presented at Tripartite Conferences, and reviews the Tripartite documents prior to their submission to the Coordinating Committee (COC011M) in Paris. Ad Hoc Working Groups -- In additi on to the foregoing, ORR participa es in the work of various ad hoc inter- agency working groups requiring economic intelligence support. 6. ORGANIZATION 25X1A 25X1A The following organization has been established to carry out ORRIS mission. The coordinating and producing functions are handled by the same people. The chief limitation on the effectiveness of the organization is the inadequate number of In addition to the Office of the Assistant Director and the Administrative Staff, ORR is divided into eight main divisions reporting to the Assistant Director for Research and Reports. These may be grouped as follows: Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA'-RIi`P$4-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Relee 2004/09/23: CIA-RDe?022ROQ'R0200070005-1 ET a. Economic Divisions (1) Materials Division -- covers ferrous and non- -ferrousmetals, solid fuels and petroleum, food 25X1A and agriculture, chemicals, and special commodities such as gold and uranium. 25X1A (2) Industrial Division -- covers production of ammunition, weapons, ships, aircraft, production equipment, electrical, and electronic devices, d capital goods. 25X1 A an 25X1A (3) 25X1A 25X1A 25X1A Economic Services Division -- covers transportation, communications trade and finance, labor and man- power, electric power, construction. nnc3 PCnnnm-i n (4) Economic Analysis Division -- conducts studies b. Services of Common Concern 25X1A in economic capabilities, economic warfare and export control problems, US foreign economic programs, and economic strategy; develops new techniques and methods for ascertaining economic facts. (Example: determining production rates by analysis of serial numbers and other markin s.) Basic Intelligence Division -- coordinates the production of the National Intelligence Surveys. Edits the NIS and arranges for renroduc-Hon 25X1A (1) and dissemination. awaiting clearance - (2) Geographic Division -- produces all special (non- terrai_n maps needed for intelligence purposes throughout the Government; does special geographic studies for the Department of State, studies foreign mapping agencies, geographical aspects of all foreign areas; maintains a library of special maps; makes graphic presentations for the use of the NSC and CIA; and procures foreign :naps for 25X1A the use of all r_n_anpi_np aeenc-iP.q in +.>-,a Approved For Release 2004/09/ FKWP84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Relssre 2004/09/23 : P84-00022R000200070005-1 ANET c. Support Divisions ('l) 25X1A 25X1A (2) Requirements and Control Division -- receives, sorts, and screens incoming intelligence material; 25X1 A arranges for the collection of information needed 7. CONSULTANTS During its formative stages ORR. has received the benefit of advice and assistance from a number of consultants from both industry and the academic world. a. Industrial Consultants Consultants from industry include: 25X1A Reports Division -- schedules and coordinates the production of approved projects within ORR, edits finished reoorts, and arranges for their reproduction and dissemination- These men have given a considerable amount of their limited time to a study of ORR's problem of analyzing the Soviet economy. prom their personal experience they have been able to make a number of reconuuendations concerning methods of estimating Soviet production. They have also been helpful in finding qualified technical experts for recruitment by ORR, Approved For Release 2004/0 CQIEI DP84-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For R*lepse 2004/09/23 :M R T4-00022R000200070005-1 -INK b. University Consultants Consultants from the universities include: 25X1A These consultants have been helpful in devising new techniques and methods for ascertaining economic facts and in analyzing the nature of the Soviet economy. They have also been helpful in finding trained economists for recruitment by ORR. 8. StTg: URY OF PROGRESS ORR has established the mechanics for accomplishing its coordinating function and has a firm start on its substantive program of intelligence research. Much work remains, however, to be done in both fields. In the meantime considerable effort has gone into recruiting a competent staff. Work in our substa._itive field should accelerate as more competent people report for duty. The chief obstacle to be overcome continues to be that of working space. It is understood that solution of this problem is under study by the responsible members of the agency. 4-00022R000200070005-1 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP8