CONTENTS OF BLACK NOTEBOOKS KEPT IN ONE BY SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00499R000500100001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 8, 1971
• Content Type: MFR

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MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD:
SUBJECT: Contents of Black Notebooks Kept in ONE by Soviet
Military Estimators
VOLUME I: MILITARY ESTIMATES AND RESEARCH
1.* ONE Staff Memorandum No. 10-59, by Howard Stoertz,,Jr.
Schedule of Estimates on Soviet Military Capabilities, 7. April
1959, 4 pp. plus. table, S. Redefines requirements for
estimates of Soviet military capabilities ass mission oriented
estimates of a. long range attack, b. air defense, c. land
campaigns, and.d. naval warfare. Urges that ONE'undertake
an estimate on long range strike forces.
2. DCID No. 3/4, Production of Guided Missile and
Astronautics Intelligence, USIB-D-33.2/1 (Rev.),. 3 February
1959, Final Intelligence Board-approved Draft, 5 pp., S.
3. DCID No. 3/3, Production of Atomic! Energy Intelligence,
USIB-D-32.2/1:(Rev.), 27 January 1959, Final.Intelligence Board-
approved Draft, 6 pp., S.
4. DCID No. 3/5, Production of Scientific
and
Technical
Intelligence, USIB-D-34.2/1 (Rev.)',3 February
Intelligence Board-approved Draft, 6 pp., S.
1959,
Final
5. Memorandum to Mr. Kirkpatrick's Committee, by
Sherman Kent, AD/ONE, ONE and the Preparation of Military
Estimates, 29 January 1962: 5 pp. C. Why. coordination of
military estimating should not be transferred from ONE to
DIA.
6.
Memorandum to DDI from Otto E. Guthe, AD/RR, The
Role
of
ORR.in Military Intelligence, 21 January 1962, 3
pp.,
S.
with two supporting Annexes of 7 and 2 pp. Sent
to ONE for concurrence. This was the carbon copy routed to
ONE; no indication..whether concurrence was given. Recommends
*Numbers assigned by
CIA Historical Staff...
GnJU
Exc!LC:J tr.^ r i
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that ORR be assigned 100 additional positions to support
military estimating.
7. Draft memorandum, unaddressed, unsigned, undated,
The Soviet Military Problem and the Research and Organization
of the DbI.' Endorsed: Proctor's Notes Fall 1961, 5 pp.
Classification not shown.
8. Clipped article, "Program Packaging -- Opportunity
and Peril," Capt. Harry C. White, USN, and Lt. Cmdr. Robert
J. Massey, USN, US Naval Institute, Proceedings, Vol. 87,
No. 12 (December, 1961), pp. 23-35. Discusses McNamara
and-Hitch proposals for mission oriented budgeting.
9. Draft memorandum, unaddressed, by Howard Stoertz,
Jr., DDI Analysis of Sino-Soviet Bloc Military and Related
Subjects, 12 May 1962, 2 pp. Endorsed: Shown only to R. J.
Smith, S. Kent, IS, Eyes Only,
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with 7 p. signed attachment. Recommends combination of
military analysts of OSI, ORR, OCI, and ONE into a new DDI
office to serve more effectively the needs of current
intelligence, indications, and national estimates.
10. Notes on Procedure, by Howard Stoertz, Estimative
History of Soviet.Military'Programs and Policy Since 1950,
2d draft, 22 March 1963, 2 pp. S. Attached is 2 pp. list:
Examples of.Work Completed.or in Process, 26 March 1963, C.
11. Memorandum to DDI, prepared by Howard Stoertz,
signed by Sherman Kent, AD/NE, Use of Techniques Described
in RAND Memo No. 2892-PR, August 1962, dated 10 January 1963,
3 pp., copy-69, S. Reviews actions by DDI to implement RAND
proposals for improvement of US estimates of Soviet military
capability. CIA/DIA Joint Analysis Group (JAG) has been
established and will work on long range studies recommended
by RAND. Cites other actions taken by DDI to implement
RAND proposals.
12. Memorandum to DDI, byl Chief, JAG, Ideas 25X1
in RAND Memo (2892-PR) as Reflected in JAG Papers, 17
December 1962,2 pp., S. DDI is implementing RAND's
proposals for long range (10 year) mission oriented
projections; critique of RAND proposals.
13. Terms of Reference of Sino-Soviet: Weapons Analysis
Coordinating Group (Short Title: Weapons Coordinating Group),
unsigned, 3 December 1962,'2 pp., S., prepared in OAD/RR.
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14. Coordination of Intelligence on Strategic Weapons
50-1.00-34 18 February
Systems and Programs, DDI Notice No.
1963, signed by Ray S. Cline, DDI, 3 pp., S. Requires
coordination of papers representing DDI or Agency views or
for dissemination outside Agency. Excludes contributions
to NIE's, which are however to be circulated to interested
components for comment.
15. Memorandum for DDI, by Otto E. Guthe, Review of
Part IV of the Loftus/Marshall Paper, 29 March 1963, 1 p.,
S., forwarding Tabs A and B,-2 pp. each, S. Summarizes
review by Strategic Weapons Coordinating Group.
16. Record of the Eighth Meeting of the Strategic
Weapons Coordinating Group, unsigned, 8 April 1963, 2 pp.,
copy 1105, issued by OAD/RR, S.
17. Memorandum for DDI, by Otto E..Guthe,, Need for
? Historical Study of Soviet Military Developments, 29 March
1963, 2 pp., Copy 1023, with 1 p. attachment, summarizing
discussion of subject by Strategic Weapons Coordinating
Group, S. Stoertz to undertake study.
18. Memorandum for Chairm and Members, DDI Strategic
Weapons Coordinating Group, by 25X1
,
USAF (Ret.), ONE Member, WCG, Clarification o s Role
in Coordination of Intelligence Papers on Strategic Weapon
Systems and Programs, l'8 July 1963, 6 pp., S. ONE wishes
to be consulted before other DDI offices issue papers in
the current intelligence,` scientific, or military-economic
fields which present evidence or analysis tending in a
significant way to confirm, amplify, modify, change, or
fill gaps in estimates on strategic weapon systems and
programs.
19. Memorandum for Assistant Directors NE, RR, and SI, by
Intelligence Support for Long Term Programming
23 February 1962, 1 p., S, transmitting draft
f US Forces
,
o
memorandum to DCI on same.subject, same date, 2 pp.,,S.
Attached memorandum recommends establishing a group of six
persons responsible to DCI under guidance of Chairman of
the Board of National Estimates (3 from DIA; from CIA an
economist, a scientist, and a chairman) to satisfy the
request of the SecDef for detailed program analysis of
Sino Soviet force structure'to support US long range
planning. Annexed to the draft memorandum is an 8 p.
enclosure on the same subject, signed byl Consists 5X1
of justification of what later became the National Intelligence
Projections for Planning (NIPP).
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20. ONE Staff, Memorandum No. 78-61 (internal ONE
Working Paper - CIA Distribution Only), OtE's Need for
Research Support on Soviet Strategic Programming, 21
December, 1961, 1 p., S. Note to the Board to explain that
the transmitted attachment was written in response to numerous.
requests for a new look at the military estimating process.
Attached is Memorandum, same number, subject:, and date,
Jr., 10 pp., S. Creation of DIA does not replace need for
ONE military estimates. US policy makers require long
range military estimates for planning. In future military
estimates more emphasis. should be placed on current Soviet
R&D, costing, Soviet strategic thinking, and Soviet military
programming.
21. Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, by Charles
J. Hitch, ASD (Comp), Improved Intelligence Estimates and
Analysis of Our Theatre Force Requirements, dated in
pencil 17 November 1961, prepared by A. Enthoven, 15
November 1961, 1 p. thermofax of carbon copy, S. Enclosed
is copy of memorandum from Hitch to Lt. Gen. Joseph F.
Carroll, Director, DIA, Future Needs Program for Intelligence
Estimates and Analysis of the Intelligence, undated, prepared
by A. Enthoven, 15 November 1961, 4 p. thermofax of carbon
copy, S. Hitch to SecDef: in answer to the Secretary's
question of how to develop a better basis to set requirements
for general purpose or theatre forces. It is important that
we do so and it can be done. In past services have overstated
Communist theatre force capabilities in order to make a
strong case for their own. Encloses memorandum to Gen.
Carroll making it clear DIA is responsible for estimating
the Soviet defense program as a whole, consistent with
observed capabilities and budget levels, using a programming
approach. Hitch to Gen. Carroll: to support new methods
of planning and programming in Comptroller's office, must
improve intelligence estimating. To support US policy
making decisions on a weapon system basis must have comparable
long range Soviet estimates for at least five years in future,
based not on traditional military attitude to requirements, but
on analysis of weapon systems.
22. A. W. Marshall, J. E. Loftus, and G. E. Pugh,
Project Lamp, Systems Analysis and the Military Estimates
Process, 3 April 1961-,733 pp, S. Organized in four major
parts, preceded by Table of Contents and Foreword:
.I. Critiqueof.Current Military Estimates
Procedures Using 11-8-60 as an Example.
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II. Use of Systems Analysis in Improving Mid-
Term Military Estimates.
III.. Supporting Studies for Improving Estimates
of Soviet Military Capabilities.
IV. Recommendations.
Recommends that CIA undertake: 1. A continuing program
of Soviet requirements calculations in support of military
NIE's. 2. A major program of supporting studies, using
systems analysis. Immediate augmentation. of ONE Staff by
5-6?persons, supported by a special pool.of experienced
systems consultants. 3. On a mid-term basis, develop an
in house military analysis capability of roughly 25
technical persons, by expansion of ONE or other means to
project the Soviet military posture by systematically simulating
Soviet military. planning. Enumerates questions for policy
determination concerning size, location, organization, and
administration of such a group.
(The foregoing list was compiled from the first of
two black looseleaf notebooks, passed to the Chief of the
CIA Historical Staff by ONE, May 1971.
In conversation on 8 June 1971, indicated to
the'DCh/HS that these notebooks were compiled and maintained'
by Mr. Howard Stoertz, Jr., as a member of the ONE Staff
responsible for. Soviet military estimating. The two notebooks
will be accessioned into the Historical Collection of the
CIA Historical Staff as HS/HC 603 and 604.)
Deputy Chief, CIA:. Historical Staff
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IDENTIFICATION OF DOCUMENT (author, form, addressee, title & length)
Memorandum for the Record
Subject: Contents of Black Notebooks Kept in ONE by Soviet
Military Estimators.
20 pages total
ABSTRACT
A three-volume listing of the contents of the black
ONE by Soviet Military Estimators compiled by
Volume I: Military Estimators and Research
Volume II: Quantitative Estimates, Major Soviet Force Components
and Weapon Systems
Volume III:Same as II
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25X1
FORM 2523 O SOLETE PREVIOUS HISTORICAL STAFF SOIIRCF INnFX SFCRFT (13.15)
LOCATION:
HS/HC 897
notebooks kept in
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