SENIOR SUCCESSION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00780R002300070006-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2002
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: January 1, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Director-Comptroller
THROUGH Deputy Director for Support
SUBJECT Senior Succession
1. We have only five or so years to plan and act before the impact of
the retirement age hump is upon us, and I think it is timely for Agency
.management to take positive action to prepare for the future.
2. I think the Agency will come through the period of stress with
favorable results only if the Director and the Deputy Directorsbecome and re-
main truly knowledgeable of the problem and are convinced that a positive and
thoughtful program of action is essential.
3. I commend for your study the attached paper on the subject. It sug-
gests that it is extremely important that the Agency study its succession
problem now and in detail and take action to prepare sufficient numbers of
persons in the GS-12 and GS-13 levels to effectively replace those in the
GS-l~+ through GS-18 levels who will soon be lost. Its purpose is to show the
problem the Agency faces, to generate concern, and to indicate the ways in
which the Office of Personnel is prepared to assist each Directorate and
Career Service therein to analyze and understand its problems of succession.
4. I would like to see a program of "succession" planning and develop-
ment initiated by a charge from the Director being placed with each of the
Deputy Directors together with a semi-annual progress reporting requirement.
I would expect the Office of Personnel to play a substantial role in
developing a basic framework within which each Directorate and Career Service
would carry on its effort.
5. In the event you may wish to hold preliminary discussions on the
subject with the Deputy Directors or other officials, I am sending you multi-
ple copies of our basic paper on the subject of succession. No further
distribution is planned until I hear from you as to how you may wish to pro-
ceed.
25X1
Emmett D. Echols
Director of Personnel
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THE SUCCESSION PROBLEM IN CIA
SUI~~ OF INITIAL REPORT
A looming succession problem requires Agency-wide study and the involvement of
management at all levels if we are to pinpoint and solve it.
Even in advance of detailed analysis, our findings indicate an Agency-wide problem
of accelerated personnel losses in the Grades l~~through 18 (Retiree Group) which
w9.11 echo downward through other employee groups.
1. The Agency trill lose in.the next ten years over one-half of its personnel
in Grades GS-1~+ through 18. Although numerical losses in the DDP Group
will be higher than those in the DDI and DDS Groups, in terms of a reduction
of the total on-duty strength in these Grades, the DDS Group will be hit
the hardest (77~) and the DDP Group the least (34~) excluding the O~DCI.
2. Over four-fifths of the employees presently in Grades 12 and 13 will leave
these Grades in the next ten years because of separations and movement
upward (on the assumption that they trill be used to fill higher grade
vacancies). The shrinkage of personnel in the GS-12 and GS-13 grade
groups in the next ten years will be felt the most in the DDS&T (1000
excluding the O~DCI and the least in the DDP (55~)?
The implications of these data should be analyzed in detail within the Career
Services, including an assessment of the effects of accelerated personnel losses
in the senior Grades upon the Back-up Group (GS-12s and 13s); the Intermediate
Group and the Entry Group. For example, it may be anticipated that future deci-
sions concerning the number and: qualifications of new professional hires trill depend
significantly on the 'results of the succession studies in the Career Services.
We want to assure top management that the succession problem trill be systematically
studied throughout the Agency, using a tailored plan of analysis trhich each
Diz?ectorate feels best suited to its area. Possible items of stu y include? a
quantitative assessment of who is departing from .the senior grade groups in the
next and 10 years and who is staving in the Back up Grou , the qualifications and
lack of qualifications of the Back-up Group to take over; the feasibility of
a.ssistiing career Services to construct models of the qualifications they prefer
for senior and managerial personnel to have; the feasibility of OP providing manage
ment rofiles shots the managerial uallfications actuall ossessed b individuals
identified for this purpose by the Career Services as related to the managerial
norms in the Career Service models and the desirabilit of modif ing our ersonnel
evaluation system to include factors for re ortin on managerial otential.
See TAB B for the total list of possible study items.
In making our studies we will be guided by the following beliefs:
:L .
~.
3?
!F .
No elite concept is wanted in this Agency.
No formal individual career plans are desirable.
The role of Career Services should be retained and strengthened, if possible.
An Agency-tride succession program cannot be a canned program and must be
constructed in the context of the Agency's problems.
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PRESERVING AGET~TCY PRGFESSIONA.LISrq
'.L'he very things that made possible the recent celebration of our t~?rentieth
i y~robletns tuiusual,
but feto zrould question the complexities of some of our personnel staffing prob-
].ems. It is suc"ficient to mention here some of the factors that bear on the
pro?~lem of maintaining a continuit of professionalism, in this Agency, even as
same of the adverse effects of maturity begin to appear. To mention some examples,
the Agency has a Greater range of occupational requirements than almost ar>,y other
L;ovcrnmental organization; this diversification of occupational needs complicates
our attempts to plan the types and amounts of employees that should be brought
in at a given rate, in order to balance accelerating losses caused by retirements
and aging; the frequent]~y conflicting demands within the Agency for technical
talent versus generalist personnel are harder to resolve in CIA than in agencies
having onl;f a few types pf professional requirements; CIA must do its own
recruiting, rather than turn?to rosters of available personnel; and zre must
substantially grow ~rithin house our oim talent. This latter point deserves special
emphasis. Acquiring technically-qualified people is only a prelude to providing
Agency instruction in the basic linos-rledge and shills, of our work, e.g., there is
no DDP college or tradecxaft curriculum available in the academic cotttmunity.
Although comprehensive training is p~xticularly important in this Agency as the
means for qualifying personnel to undertake assignments, "professionalism" is
best maintained by employees doing a variety of jobs over a period of time.
The impending acceleration of personnel losses therefore must be offset if the
desired goal of maintaining the current level of professionalism in this Agency
is to be achieved. ~'
Loss of managerial and professional strength has not been a major problem in the
past. As the Aziency drew, we built acceptable programs of compensation, selection,
individual career development, training, Career Service monitoring, employee
recognition, employee incentives, employee benefits and special programs adapted
to the 'needs then existent. During the forilzative years, emphasis zra,^ placed
upon supporting line managers and fixing formal responsibility, through the
career structure, at the basic levels of personnel management and decision-malting.
Our policies and structures have proved their effectiveness as appropriate means
for continuing to do personnel business. But, with the advent of the succession
problem, s~rc nos~r face a diletttma that will require the continuing attention and
involvement of both top management and aLl working levels, especially the Career
Services, if zre are to pinpoint and solve it.
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Even in advance of a detailed study on the accelerated personnel losses expected
to occur in the future, it is possible to illustrate how the succession tempo ~?rill
quicken perceptibly in the next five years and substantially during the next 10
years. The ripple effects unleashed down through an organizational. structure by
key appointments is trel.l 1~noS~rn. Our concern in this report is the phenomenon of
e,Ypectcd mi~ations outward from the Agency and ups?rard through its rarL~s brought
on by accelerated losses. ^1op raana~eiient in viewing the succession problem must
lool: not only ~to fillin.g key vacancies but to the problems zrhich will be engendered
at all echelons of employees, starting with the R~-:tiree Group (especially those
in professional and managerial positions) and extending do~~z into the &~,cl~-up
Group (GS-12s and GS-13s who ~?rill be around to take over, whether qualified or
not , the Intei~aediate Group (middle to senior, non-managerial professionals,
expected to surge upi?rard to fill the jobs vacated by the Back-up Group when it
moves f ox~rard); and the Entry Group (S?rhose pace, number and required sl-;ills are
affected by the mornentum of accelerated personnel losses felt throughout the
entire organization).
A quantita-L-ive impression of the tii~ling; and size of future losses and the possible
adverse effects within the Agency can be gained from the follozring informat9.on:
1. In the next 10 years (CY 1g67-176) the Agency will lose over. one-half
of its senior personnel (GS-11~ - lZ~ through separations and retirements:
3~. More mcai~.ngful than the actual r~ursber of expected losses in senior
professionals S~ithin the Directorates is the expected depletion in the
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r'irst in importance from the standpoint of clarifying the purpose of the study
i.s our belief that an elite concept is not irG.nted in this Agency, either as a
f orm~~.lltiy sta'ced policy or as a de facto circumstance, that would be e.Ypected to
ensue from proposals put forth. The argument against an elite corps of succes-
sors does not c~ci>y the need for Career Services to identify inC1:LVidlialu Srith
the potential for advancement; for no program of managerial or professional devel-
opment can be carried out unless deserving employees can be identified for assis-
tance and observation in different situations. In fact, Career Services have as
~?.. primary role the assignment, training, recognition and advancement of personnel
under their jurisdiction, and they will continue to perform these responsibilities,
3.rrespective of z~rhether or not future needs arising from the succession problem
a.re even conscious]tiy considered as a part of these determinations.
Cur belief is that today's decisions on personnel assignments and training should
take into account not on1~ the capability of qualified and available individuals
to fill these jobs or training slots but also the developmental needs of possible
candidates which should be met in order that they can perform more useful service
tomorroz-r. ~~le do not advocate, however, the establishment of an in-group for. pre-
ferential treatment. On the contrary, t,re view the .problem as primari],y one of
emphasizing the professional development of a sufficient number of people to fully
meet the totality of the expected succession problem within each Career Service.
Our bias ~crould favor the planning of assignments and training of all personnel
in the Bacl:-up Group GS-1.2 and above except, perhaps those ruled out by a
Career Service. If this were done, the resultant effect should be a rounding-out
of personnel in the areas where they are deficient or inexperienced (e.~., staff
versus line or overseas versus headquarters) . Tizese planned. ar. r. a,n.r;erlen-ts if struc-
tured in tez~us of Career Service needs shou]_d maximize alternative choices for the
future take-over of more complex professional and managerial responsibilities.
Second, z~re do not advocate a forrual approach providing for the formulation of
career plans tailored to the expressed interests of individual employees. It
does not fit the concept of bringing along personnel to fill the vacuum of more
responsible assigzL.~nts anticipated in the future, and it is not considered
a~lxninistratively feasible or workable. ]Jarlier attempts to prepare individual
p]_ans and coordinate individual agreements on future progressions and/or assign-
ments proved fruitless, and no resurrection of such a sys?~em t~rould be acceptable
irti our judgment, to the_Agency.
Ti:~ird, from the tenor of previous remarks, it should be clear that we believe the
Career Services should retain unimpaired their vital role. We urge only an assess-
ment of the higl~.].~.ghts of the succession problem in each Career Service and the
measured introduction of tomorrow's needs in today's decision-zn~king. Nothing more
is envisaged except the recommendation of any Agency-wide policy changes that znay
be necessary to ensure top management that continuity of professionalism t~ri.11 be
maintained in the future at all age and grade groups. The Office of Personnel sees
for itself a supporting role in working with the Career Services to analyze the
succession problem in a systematic way throughout the Agency.
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rourtiz, we have hammered: the point and brill therefore on7~ reiterate tizat
a.n Agency-trifle succession grogram cannot be a canned arrangement. having made
this point, however, we would like to note that most succession programs installed
elsewhere, principally in industry, tend to reflect certain cannnon characteristics
conducive to success or failure. (For a summary of these corrunon features see
TAB A .)
DETAILIPdG OUR SUCCESSIODl STUDIES
Ole have demonstrated in general tennis that CIA brill face an Agency-wide succession
problem, but this we already expected. j^That specific ramifications trill result
throughout the Agency froin_accelerated personnel losses is the real question, and
the answers to this question will give us the clues as to what remedies t~.ll be
required and in what size packages. Let us put the question in more detail: (1)
where is the succession problem of significant concern--in which Career Services
and organizational units; (2) what is the nature of the problem belo~?r the Agency
level--what S~riL1 be the likely manpo~?rer effects of expected future changes ~rithin
Career Services acid Offices; (3) who axe the employees affected by the succession
problem--does the problem involve the 13a.ck-up Group only in a paxtict~lar area or
is the principal future impact to be found in the reverberations of accelerated
personnel losses, such as the emergence of an unprepared, Intermediate Group or
the specter of an inadequate number of young professionals entering on duty; and
(1~) how is the problem to be solved--trill increased alertness do the fob; will
occasional preplanning of assignments suffice; should the occupational mix be
changed; are more expenditures for personal development required; are new Agency-
tiride policies needed, etc.? It is apparent, even in the asking of these questions,
that no one set of ans~~rers will a~~ly to all Career Services and Offices since the
what, who, ~?rhere, when, ar~c1 how v~xy significantly amoi~ these units and trill
vary within them from year to year.
1`To successful mana~ment succession program can be based on theoretical concepts
a7.one, but any study attempting to cover all the possible variables involved in
future persoruiel losses within the next five and ten years would become an
impossible task. Tile must structure our studies of the succession problem at the
outset so that resulting proposals and recommendations s-rill neither be too
abstract and formalistic or too detailed and ambitious.
Lle grant to assure top management that a systematic approach will be taken through-
out the Agency to identify succession problems wherever they exist. A~.Zalysis in
depth will be limited, however, to only those factors that the Directorates and
Career Services consider relevant to their particular areas, and our approach .will
supplement the planning already being done by the Career Services to identify and
solve their succession problems. Accordingly, ire believe the following steps
should be taken in making the Agency-wide studies:
1. Prepare, as time and staff facilities within the Office of Personnel permit;
a separate report for each Directorate sho~~.ng the nature and severity of
the succession problem ~,r;.thin each Career Service in its area.
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2. Develop t~rith Directorate and Career Service representatives atailored plan
of ano.lysis applicable to their areas, using the guidelines in TAB B as
possible items of stud'.
3. Dig in depth S?rhen necessary to ferret out specific problem areas S?rithin
individual Career Services.
~-. In co~acerL with Career Service and Directorate representatives, prepare
recoz~nendations?which saculd require Agency-wide action and summarize the
internal actions that Career Services are taking or planning to take.
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TAB A.
COMMON ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSION PROGRAM
1. Objectives vary with organizations, but four are common to most
organizations:
a. Staffing key jobs
b. Developing individual opportunities
c. Providing continuity of competency
d. Deploying manpower to increase effectiveness of organization
2. Program must be supported and participated in by all levels of
management and will be if understood and need demonstrated.
3? System must look and plan ahead 5, 10 or more years.
4. Must identify managerial positions and people with potential for
filling them.
5? Forecasting of long-range organizational structure, manpower needs
and functional changes are bases for determining the future climate.
6. Must develop a methodology or system to ensure that individuals
with management potential are routinely considered for assignments
and training which will improve their qualifications and effectiveness.
7. Should evaluate background of managers to see why they became
managers and what they have done well.
9?
A good selection process is needed to obtain people with career
potential.
Development of individuals and developmental programs should be
tailored to meet specific needs (training programs often too
broad or general).
10. Management potential should be evaluated as well as performance.
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POSSIBLE STUDY ITEMS IN EACH DIRECTORATE
.AND CAREER SERVICE
1. Grid of senior personnel leaving and composition of Back-up Group.
a. Future departures of personnel in senior professional or manager-
ial positions during the next 5 and 10 years (Retiree Group).
b. Reservoir of personnel in Back-up Group (GS-12's and 13s expected
to move upward in vacated positions GS-14 and above).
c. Qualitative assessment of managerial and professional experiences
of departees versus those possessed by personnel in Back-up Group
(highlights of problems in specific Divisions or Branches when
applicable).
d. Qualitative assessment of significant experience or training
needed by personnel in Back-up Group (group dimension of problem
and highlights of specific problem areas in Divisions and Branches
when applicable):
2. Quantitative evaluation of personnel needed in Intermediate Group to
meet needs in 5 and 10 years, arising from losses of personnel in
Retiree and Back-up Groups.
4.
Quantitative analysis of personnel needed in Entry Group to meet
needs in 5 and 10 years, arising from losses in higher grade groups.
Feasibility of working with each Career Service to build a managerial
model for its use as the basis of a continuing review of the develop-
mental needs of personnel within the various grade groups. The models
would vary substantially among Career Services and would include only
those specifications of particular concern to them, e.g., type of
technical background (accounting, economics, etc.); kinds of formal
training that should .be acquired; acceptable rates of progression
over a career span; variety of assignments that an individual should
have; balanced levels of desired staff versus line experience and overseas
versus headquarters experience; types of appropriate supplementary job
or substantive orientations, including brief stints outside the Career
Service; supplementary technical skills desired (language, area experience,
university graduate work, etc.); index of personal attributes of importance
to the Career Service; and acceptable levels of personnel evaluations,
including any identifications of factors of particular importance to the
Career Service. Models would have to be the final product of the
Career Service although assistance in initial drafting and monitoring
of the Agency-wide effort could come from the Office of Personnel.
Obviously, the elements of a model would only represent an ideal set
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of norms desired by the Career Service for use as benchmarks in
following employee development and work assignments.
5? Feasibility of obtaining from Career Services an identification of
individuals who have potential for further managerial or professional
development. This effort should be quite broad-based. For example,
one approach might be to consider all GS-12s and GS-13s with potential
for eventual managerial positions.
6. Feasibility of providing Career Services with an annual management
profile on each of their careerists identified as having potential for
further managerial development (it would emphasize the presence or
lack of the specific norms contained in the Career Service managerial
model).
7. Desirability of modifying our personal evaluation program to include
factors for, reporting on managerial potential.
8. Study the characteristic determinants of management potential having
relevance to each Career Service (e.g., conceptual ability, adjust-
ment to change, technical competency, ability to advocate views,
managerial style and verbal skills).
9. Identification of areas in which immobility or superannuation inhibits
operational effectiveness, such as size of family, general age level,
lack of dynamism, etc. Study possibilities of using affected personnel
elsewhere.
10. Identification of significant organizational and functional changes
planned for the future within Directorates and components, as guides
to future manpower needs. Identification of key managerial and
professional positions that will become vacant in the next 10 years.
11. Determination of the applicability within the Agency of recognized
techniques of managerial development and ascertaining what precise
modifications or adaptations should be made in these techniques for
them to have meaningful relevance, e.g., replacement charts, career
' paths, personnel inventories, rotation systems, long-range personnel
projections, employee testing, employee coaching and separate manager-
ial appraisal systems.
12. Determination of specialized internal or external training programs
required in particular Career Services or Offices to keep personnel
updated in their technical disciplines or broaden their perspective
for higher responsibility, including substantive areas not previously
encountered, e.g., familiarizing DDS&T personnel with new develop-
ments in their specialized fields or requiring economists to take
additional graduate work. Review feasibility of approaching this
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problem at the Agency-level by using OTR and external facilities to
meet requests for professional development of specified individuals
upon recommendations of Career Service, proposed as apart of an
integrated program of developing the managerial potential of its
employees.
13? Systematic review of Agency personnel policies, programs and pro-
cedures, e.g., the mid-career and senior school programs, in order
to determine what changes should be effected to meet the dimension
of the succession problem in the next 5 and 10 years.
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Finis Table assumes that fu?ttirrc losses in Grades GS-14 througYz 18
~?rill be filled frot~l the raz~l~;.s of the Bacl:-up Group (personnel in
Grades GS-12 and GS-13 jrho ti>~.11 be in the Agency loz~ cnou~;h to
fill in behind departing personnel in the hi~iler Grades). This
a~suznption is essentially correct, although it obviously has less
validity in DDS&T, Z?rherc some direct; hiring at higYzcr levels
occurs, or in the DCI where internal reassignments arc used.
(Replaced losses in the ODCI i?rould have an impact, hot-revcr, else-
tnc~rc in the Agency.) The rcal~cucstions cannot be answered here
and must remain the subject of future analysis; ~.za~ncly: (a) how
nzueh lorz~er j?rill individuals in the Back-up Group be available in
their respective components and Career Services beyond 'the next
5 and 10 years, in order to assume future vacancies; and (b) wi11
these personnel have sufficient erpericnces and qualifications
to be fulltiy proficient as they are asked to take on higher
responsibilities?
projected personnel losses for the Agenc include estizn