TERRORISM REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00893R000100270001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 5, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 13, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of
Intelligence MASTER FILE
COPY
Review
Terrorism
GI TR 83-021
13 October 1983
Copy 497
QI NIT 61YE AUT
08 MARK ON `.?
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Secret
Review
1 Perspective-International Terrorist Activity: A Snapshot View
(OGI)
7 Highlights
11 Argentina: The Politics of Counterterrorism
(OGI)
The Psychology of Terrorist Behavior
(OGI)
Comments and queries regarding this publication may be directed to the Deputy
Director, Instability and Insurgency Center, Office of Global Issues, telephone
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Secret
Review
International terrorism continued to command center stage through the first nine
months of 1983:
? In April, terrorists bombed the US Embassy in Beirut, killing more than 60
people-including 17 Americans. The exact identities of the perpetrators are still
unknown.
? The African National Congress, a liberation organization whose previous attacks
were generally designed to destroy property but to avoid casualties, detonated a
car bomb outside the South African Air Force Headquarters in Pretoria in May,
injuring 217 and killing 19.
? Armenian terrorists, whose blood feud with the Turks has crossed a new
threshold of international violence, bombed the Turkish ticket counter at Paris's
Orly Airport, killing six and injuring more than 60.
? Most recently, an as yet unidentified group of terrorists-possibly acting at the
instigation of North Korea-detonated a bomb in Rangoon, Burma, killing 16
senior South Korean officials. The apparent target of this blatant display of
terrorist violence was South Korean President Chun, who escaped death by sheer
chance.F__1 25X1
their random and lethal threat.
Spectaculars all, these incidents once again succeeded in drawing the attention-if
not sympathy-of the world to their perpetrators' causes. Small wonder then that
Americans continue to believe that terrorists run rampant and cannot be brought
to heel, and that people and institutions everywhere remain highly vulnerable to
Terrorism Trends-The Last Nine Months
A close-though admittedly somewhat subjective-look at terrorist group activity
as illustrated in the attached chart suggests otherwise. Although our files are still
not complete for the year, the volume and impact of terrorist incidents, in fact, ap-
pear to be on the decline-quite likely in response to a series of government
counterterrorist successes that occurred in Italy and West Germany in 1982.
1 Secret
GI TR 83-021
13 October 1983
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Secret
However heartening, the decline clearly is not applicable to all groups and is
largely attributable to a variety of factors-notably, better tactics by European
security agencies coupled with new antiterrorism legislation. Moreover, particular-
ly in Latin America, a number of key terrorist groups are well on their way to
graduating into insurgent movements.
Consequently, we see little cause for optimism that worldwide terrorist activity is
permanently. on the wane. Early data hint, for example, that even at the reduced
level of activity, terrorist incidents are generating increased fatalities. Though the
increased lethality may reflect some greater operational effectiveness, in many
cases it also represents an outlet for extreme frustration or competition for the 25X1
public spotlight among the groups
Neither our data nor the accompanying chart provides the answers or enables us to
draw broad generalizations or project future trends. It does at least permit us to
track-however broadly-developing trends in terror. Although it is no more than
a preliminary snapshot of terrorist activity, it can be compared and contrasted with
other such snapshots in the future as well as those of the past
Regional Wrap-up
Europe. In West Germany, after a period of reduced terrorist activity resulting
from an effective government campaign, there is some evidence of a step-up in vio-
lence, probably largely linked to the upcoming INF deployment. The terrorist
Revolutionary Cells recently demonstrated their capabilities. to exploit the INF
issue by destroying the computer of a well-known German firm they claimed was
manufacturing components for Pershing missile transport trucks. Moreover, the
coming months could prove critical in determining whether West Germany's most
notorious terrorist organization, the Red Army Faction, has been able to
successfully regenerate its leadership core
In Italy, where the government is given credit by many for breaking the back of
the infamous Red Brigades, terrorist activity has remained in an apparent state of
dormancy thus far this year. The period of inactivity could also be one of
rebuilding, however, and many analysts doubt that Italian counterterrorist
successes have caused the permanent demise of the Red Brigades, let alone of the
socioeconomic grievances that have helped sustain their support.
Middle East. In some parts of the Middle East, the high level of conventional mili-
tary activity has subsumed and almost obscurred terrorism. Various radical
Palestinian groups-major initiators of international terrorism well beyond the
borders of the Middle East-have been relatively quiet in recent months. The lull
probably reflects the ongoing battle for dominance within the PLO between
Arafat's "moderate" Fatah loyalists and the more radical Syrian-influenced
groups. An upsurge in Palestinian terrorism could be in the offing, however,
particularly if the radicals gain the upper hand and remove the Arafat-imposed re-
traints on terrorism. State-sponsored or state-supported terrorism-most impor-
tantly on the part of Iran and Syria-continues apace as both countries use terror
as another tool to advance their national interests.
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Armenians. The Armenians, whose cause does not honor political borders, have
become increasingly active in recent months. Splits within the already polarized
Armenian terrorist movement may be a major impetus behind increased violence.
There is little prospect that either the rightwing JCAG or the leftwing ASALA-
the two principal Armenian groups-will soon eschew violence.
Latin America. Terrorism in Colombia, an outgrowth of a multigroup insurgency
that has plagued the nation for decades, remains a persistent but not currently ex-
plosive problem. In Peru, the Maoist Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) became
increasingly active last year, has remained so in 1983, and there is no evidence that
their terrorist activity will soon abate.
In Central America, both rightwing and leftwing terrorist activity has continued,
with no great upsurge or diminution, against a backdrop of social, economic, and
political turmoil. Here the influence of Soviet and Cuban support for leftist forces,
who conduct terrorist operations as part of their insurgent campaign, and the
impact of an enhanced US presence remain "wild cards" whose effects have yet to
be fully played out.
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Activity and Impact of Prominent Terrorist Groups, 1983
Transnational
Justice Commandos for the Armenian Genocide (JCAG)
? Heavy
Croatian Terrorists
Blick June Organization (BJO) (Palestinian)
15th of May Organization (Palestinian)
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a,
U
Armenian Secret Army for Liberation of Armenia (ASALA)
? ?
? ?
? ?
??
?
? ?
??
??
??
Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine-Special Command (PFLP-SC)
Fatah
.
? .
Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
? ?
? ?
? ?
Popular Front -for Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC)
? ?
??
? ?
Saiqa (Palestinian)
.
? ?
Japanese Red Army (JRA)
Carlos Apparat
? ?
?
Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF)
Front for the Liberation of Lebanon From Foreigners
?
Europe
Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) (UK)
? ?
? ?
? ?
Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) (UK)
? ?
??
? ?
ETA and GRAPO (Spain)
? ?
??
? ?
FP-25 (Portugal)
Action Directe (France)
Red Brigades (BR) (Italy)
? ?
? ?
Red Army Faction (RAF) (West Germany)
?
? ?
? ?
? Severe
? Moderate
Absence of symbol indicates
no information/no impact.
Note: This chart is the first in a quarterly series. The judgments-while not reflective of
specific quantitative criteria-were made by regional and/or terrorist group analysts in
coordination with computer systems analysts. CIA intends that in the future the chart will
reflect more explicit quantitative standards for assigning the heavy/severe, moderate, and
light/negligible designators to the groups.
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