ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS 30 SEPTEMBER 1983

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3
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RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
K
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 4, 2008
Sequence Number: 
8
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
September 30, 1983
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3.pdf603.38 KB
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Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Directorate of Intelligence Economic & Energy Indicators DI EEI 83-020 30 September 1983 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 This publication is prepared for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency. Requesters outside the US Government may obtain subscriptions to CIA publications similar to this one by addressing inquiries to: Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project Exchange and Gift Division Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20540 or: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Requesters outside the US Government not interested in subscription service may purchase specific publications either in paper copy or microform from: Photoduplication Service Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20540 or: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 (To expedite service call the NTIS Order Desk (703) 487-4650 Comments and queries on this paper may be directed to the DOCEX Project at the above address or by phone (202-287-9527), or the NTIS Office of Customer Services at the above address or by phone (703-487-4660). Publications are not available to the public from the Central Intelligence Agency. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Economic & Energy Indicators Economic Industrial Production Gross National Product Consumer Prices Money Supply Unemployment Rate Foreign Trade Current Account Balance Export Prices in US $ Import Prices in US $ Exchange Rate Trends Money Market Rates Agricultural Prices Industrial Materials Prices Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 8 9 9 10 11 Foreword The EEI provides up-to-date information on changes in economic and energy activities of major countries. It is,updated from press ticker and embassy reporting whenever possible. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Percent Change From Previous Period (Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate) 1st Qtr 2d Qtr Jun Jul Aug United States -3.6 2.6 -8.1 9.9 18.3 17.0 26.6 11.0 Japan 4.7 1.0 0.4 3.6 6.7 12.3 West Germany -0.8 -2.7 -3.1 5.5 12.0 32.8 -10.7 France 0.7 -2.6 -1.5 2.1 3.2 -24.3 United Kingdom -6.4 -5.1 1.5 5.3 0.4 -18.8 Italy 5.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -9.8 -19.8 Canada -1.5 0.9 -10.7 22.3 11.5 21.9 Percent Change From Previous Period (Constant Market Prices; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate) 1st Qtr 2d Qtr United States -0.3 2.6 -1.9 2.6 9.2 Japan 4.8 3.9 2.9 0.9 3.6 West Germany 1.8 -0.2 -1.1 2.2 France 1.1 0.2 1.7 United Kingdom -2.1 -2.2 1.4 6.8 Italy 3.9 0.1 -0.3 1.2 Canada 1.0 3.4 -4.4 7.6 7.5 Percent Change From Previous Period (Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate) 1st Qtr 2d Qtr Jul Aug United States 13.5 10.3 6.2 -0.4 4.2 4.9 Japan 8.0 4.9 2.6 0.6 1.1 -0.1 2.5 West Germany 5.5 6.0 5.3 0.3 1.4 4.5 8.0 France 13.5 13.3 12.0 11.1 10.5 7.7 8.5 United Kingdom 18.0 11.9 8.6 3.5 1.9 8.6 10.1 Italy 21.2 19.3 16.4 13.3 14.2 13.8 10.6 Canada 10.2 12.5 10.8 3.0 4.2 7.0 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Money Supply, M-1 Percent Change From Previous Period (Based on Amounts in National Currency Units; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate) 1st Qtr Apr May Jun Jul Aug United States a 6.2 7.1 6.5 14.8 -2.6 29.8 10.7 9.3 2.6 Japan 0.8 3.7 7.1 -0.3 -20.4 13.0 5.9 53.0 West Germany 2.3 1.2 3.6 21.5 11.7 0.4 19.0 6.2 France 8.5 12.6 13.9 6.5 13.3 14.6 United Kingdom 4.5 NA NA 9.8 14.7 18.0 32.3 -5.1 10.4 Italy 15.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 8.1 6.6 Canada 6.4 4.0 1.0 27.2 6.7 13.1 28.8 5.2 13.5 Unemployment Rate a Percent (Seasonally adjusted) 1st Qtr 2d Qtr Jul Aug United States 7.1 7.5 9.6 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.0 Japan 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5 West Germany 3.9 5.6 7.7 8.8 9.6 9.6 9.5 France 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.3 9.7 United Kingdom 6.4 10.0 11.7 12.5 12.6 12.4 12.3 Italy 7.6 8.4 9.1 9.8 NA Canada 7.5 7.6 11.1 12.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 a Unemployment rates for France are estimated. For comparison with the US rate, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and 15 percent respectively. Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent; the rates for Japan, Canada, and West Germany are comparable to US rates. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Foreign Trade Billion US $, f.o.b. (Seasonally Adjusted) 1st Qtr 2d Qtr Jun Jul Aug Exports 220.7 233.5 212.3 50.5 48.6 17.0 16.6 Imports 245.0 261.0 244.0 58.6 62.3 21.0 21.9 Balance -24.3 -27.5 -31.6 -8.1 -13.7 -4.0 -5.3 Japan Exports 126.3 149.5 138.3 35.5 35.5 11.9 11.8 Imports 124.7 129.5 119.8 28.6 27.6 10.0 8.6 Balance 1.6 20.1 18.4 6.9 7.9 2.0 3.2 West Germany Exports 193.0 175.3 176.4 43.6 43.1 14.7 13.4 Imports b 188.0 163.4 155.3 38.1 38.9 13.2 12.0 Balance 4.9 11.9 21.1 5.5 4.2 1.6 1.4 France Exports 116.0 106.3 96.4 23.9 23.4 7.9 7.6 8.0 Imports 130.1 115.6 110.5 27.3 25.1 8.4 8.0 8.1 Balance -14.1 -9.3 -14.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.5 -0.4 0 United Kingdom Exports 110.2 102.5 97.0 22.6 22.8 7.9 7.2 Imports 107.2 96.1 93.5 22.9 23.8 7.7 7.8 Balance 3.0 6.4 3.6 0.3 - 1.0 0.3 -0.5 Italy Exports 78.0 75.4 74.2 18.9 18.2 6.1 Imports 100.3 91.4 87.0 21.8 19.6 6.9 Balance -22.3 -15.9 -12.8 -2.9 -1.4 -0.8 Canada Exports 65.9 70.5 68.6 16.9 18.4 6.1 5.9 Imports 58.4 64.3 53.7 13.6 14.2 4.9 4.8 Balance 7.5 6.2 14.8 3.3 4.2 1.2 1.1 8 Imports are customs values. b Imports are c.i.f. 1st Qtr Apr May Jun Jul United States 0.4 4.6 -11.2 -3.6 Japan -10.7 4.8 6.6 1.4 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.9 West Germany -16.5 -6.8 3.4 1.7 NEGL 0.6 0.2 -1.2 France -7.8 -5.5 -12.1 -3.6 United Kingdom 7.0 NA 9.3 1.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.4 -0.2 Italy -9.7 -8.5 -5.8 Canada -0.9 -4.8 2.4 0.2 a Converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange. b Seasonally adjusted. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Export Prices in US $ United States 10.6 9.2 1.5 Japan 6.6 5.5 -6.4 West Germany 7.2 -15.2 -3.0 France 11.7 -12.0 -5.5 United Kingdom 22.5 NA -7.3 Italy 17.4 -7.8 -3.3 Canada 17.4 3.9 -2.3 Import Prices in US $ 1st Qtr Apr May Jun Jul 3.1 1.8 -9.4 11.9 10.6 5.2 16.5 -14.6 -5.9 14.4 -13.2 -10.0 -29.1 -14.8 12.8 -17.9 -23.1 -19.5 -14.0 63.6 35.8 -11.7 -13.2 -4.8 3.9 15.3 -14.5 -4.0 49.2 1st Qtr Apr May Jun Jul United States 27.3 5.3 -2.0 -12.3 -5.0 0.9 3.2 Japan 35.5 3.6 -7.3 -4.1 -24.6 -17.9 -4.0 25.4 West Germany 15.7 -8.3 -5.4 -3.1 -11.1 -8.5 -25.3 -7.8 France 19.4 -7.8 -7.2 2.9 -32.3 26.2 -32.9 United Kingdom 24.2 NA -6.1 -11.0 45.6 11.2 -20.2 -11.7 Italy 26.1 1.1 -7.3 0.4 Canada 16.8 8.7 -1.1 -2.1 -2.4 -16.6 8.8 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 United States -0.4 10.5 10.6 -6.0 9.2 Japan -4.2 9.3 -5.7 46.5 5.2 West Germany 0.2 -2.1 7.0 10.4 4.2 France 0.5 -5.1 -6.1 6.7 -16.9 United Kingdom 9.8 2.5 -2.1 -31.1 24.3 Italy -4.1 -9.2 -5.1 4.5 -4.9 Canada -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.4 Japan -3.5 2.7 -12.8 31.5 -4.1 -2.5 -21 West Germany 0.8 -24.6 -7.2 14.1 -13.4 -22.0 -45 France 0.7 -28.7 -20.8 10.1 -38.2 -21.4 -47 United Kingdom 9.6 -13.2 -13.4 -25.3 5.5 -15.3 -17 Italy -3.1 -32.8 -18.8 9.4 -23.8 -18.5 -54 Canada 0.2 -2.5 -2.9 1.7 -1.2 0.1 -1 Money Market Rates United States 13.29 16.24 12.49 8.67 8.61 8.77 8.46 90-day certificates of deposit, secondary market Japan loans and discounts (2 months) West Germany interbank Ioans (3 months) France 12.39 15.47 14.68 12.74 12.22 12.22 interbank money market (3 months) United Kingdom 16.72 13.85 12.24 11.16 10.28 10.28 sterling interbank loans (3 months) Italy Milan interbank loans (3 months) Canada finance paper (3 months) Eurodollars 3-month deposits Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Agricultural Prices Beef (0 per pound) Australia 125.9 113.5 108.7 109.2 112.9 111.6 112.2 (Boneless beef, f.o.b., US Ports) United States (Wholesale steer beef, midwest markets) Cocoa (t per pound) Coffee (S per pound) Corn (Central Illinois No. 2 yellow, $ per bushel) 3.01 3.14 2.42 2.59 3.10 3.26 3.58 Cotton (Memphis middling 11/16 inch, $ per pound) 0.8219 0.7243 0.6073 0.6311 0.6755 0.7076 0.7317 Palm Oil (United Kingdom 5% bulk, c.i.f., S per metric ton) 583.08 570.67 445 372 415 415 544 Rice 496 565 367 368 375 386 NA (New Orleans No. 2, milled f.o.b., $ per metric ton) Soybeans (Central Illinois No. I yellow, $ per bushel) Soybean Oil (S per pound) Sugar (World raw London, bulk ? per pound) Wheat 4.33 4.36 4.00 4.07 4.05 3.69 3.87 (Kansas City No. 2 hard winter, S per bushel) Food Index 232 203 167 164 178 183 199 (1975=100) a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 16 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Major US producer 71.6 77.3 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 LME cash 80.8 57.4 44.9 54.2 64.6 69.0 72.6 Chrome Ore 55.0 53.0 50.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 (South Africa chemical grade, S per metric ton) Copper a (bar, C per pound) Gold (S per troy ounce) Lead a (0 per pound) Manganese Ore (48% Mn, S per long ton) 78.5 82.1 79.9 Composite US producer 3.5 3.5 3.2 LME Cash 3.0 2.7 2.2 Platinum (s per troy ounce) Metals week, New York dealers' price 677.0 446.0 Synthetic b 40.6 47.5 45.7 48.1 40.9 42.1 NA Natural c 73.8 56.8 45.4 49.8 56.8 58.2 59.7 Silver 20.7 10.5 7.9 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.1 (S per troy ounce) Steel Scrap d (S per long ton) 91.2 92.0 Tina 761.3 641.4 (t per pound) Tungsten Ore (contained metal, S per metric ton) 18,219 18,097 US Steel (composite, S per long ton) Zinc a (d per pound) Lumber Index e 167 159 (1975 =100) Industrial Materials Index f 184 166 (1975=100) a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and traders, although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME. b S-type styrene, US export price. e Quoted on New York market. d Average of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago. e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction costs. f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for 19 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 World Crude Oil Production Excluding Natural Gas Liquids World 59,469 55,818 53,053 51,783 52,076 Non-Communist countries 45,244 41,593 38,803 37,418 37,711 Developed countries 12,859 13,579 13,276 13,521 13,413 United States 8,597 8,572 8,658 8,670 8,688 Canada 1,424 1,285 1,270 1,174 1,200 United Kingdom 1,619 1,811 2,094 2,237 2,045 Norway 528 501 518 600 625 Other 691 717 736 840 855 Non-OPEC LDCs 5,444 6,027 6,636 6,954 6,962 Mexico 1,937 2,312 2,749 2,794 2,775 Egypt 595 598 665 755 770 Other 2,912 3,117 3,222 3,405 3,417 OPEC 26,941 22,680 18,891 16,943 17,3 ~ o Algeria 1,020 803 701 600 700 Ecuador 204 211 211 200 220 Gabon 175 151 154 150 170 Indonesia 1,576 1,604 1,314 1,300 1,400 Iran 1,662 1,381 2,282 2,400 2,400 Iraq 2,514 993 972 900 900 Kuwait b 1,389 947 663 800 800 Libya 1,830 1,137 1,183 1,100 1,100 Neutral Zone c 544 370 317 455 475 Nigeria 2,058 1,445 1,298 1,626 1,533 Qatar 471 405 328 277 298 Saudi Arabia b 9,631 9,625 6,327 4,300 4,500 UAE 1,702 1,500 1,248 1,150 1,150 Abu Dhabi 1,343 1,131 876 800 800 Dubai 349 359 359 340 340 Sharjah 10 10 13 10 10 Venezuela 2,165 2,108 1,893 1,685 1,690 Communist countries 14,225 14,225 14,250 14,365 14,365 USSR 11,700 11,790 11,800 11,860 11,860 China 2,118 2,024 2,040 2,085 2,085 Other 407 411 410 420 420 a Preliminary. b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately. c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption. United States a 17,006 16,058 15,296 Japan 4,674 4,444 4,204 West Germany 2,356 2,120 2,024 France 1,965 1,744 1,632 United Kingdom 1,422 1,325 1,345 Italy b 1,602 1,705 1 1,618 Canada 1,730 1,617 1,454 a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses. b Principal products only. Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports United States 5,220 4,406 3,488 Japan 4,373 3,919 3,657 West Germany 1,953 1,591 1,451 France 2,182 1,804 1,596 United Kingdom 893 736 565 Italy 1,860 1,816 1,710 Canada 557 521 334 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 14,772 15,484 14,779 14,250 15,281 14,818 4,972 4,623 3,847 3,461 2,053 2,182 1,940 1,986 1,685 1,786 1,500 1,405 1,189 1,417 1,431 1,313 1,227 1,253 1,865 1,606 1,417 1,468 1,472 1,458 1,280 1,192 1,309 1,357 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2,268 2,232 2,970 3,234 3,502 3,697 3,978 3,715 3,672 3,604 2,975 3,337 3,099 1,279 1,264 1,279 1,385 1,279 1,312 1,163 1,155 1,148 1,331 1,492 242 371 303 537 467 1,490 1,490 215 195 143 93 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898ROO0300120008-3 Berri 39? API 1.16% sulfur Light 17.26 28.67 32.50 34.00 29.00 29.00 34? API 1.70% sulfur Medium 16.79 28.12 31.84 32.40 27.40 27.40 31 ? API 2.40% sulfur Heavy 27? API 2.85% sulfur Light 34? API 1.35% sulfur Heavy 31 ? API 1.60% sulfur Iraq ? 35? API 1.95% sulfur Nigeria 34? API 0.16% sulfur UAE 39? API 0.75% sulfur Kuwait 311 API 2.50% sulfur Libya 40? API 0.22% sulfur Venezuela 26? API 1.52% sulfur Indonesia 18.35 30.55 35.00 34.92 29.53 29.53 35? API 0.09% sulfur Algeria 42? API 0.10% sulfur Qatar 40? API 1.17% sulfur Gabon 29? API 1.26 % sulfur Ecuador 28' API 0.93% sulfur a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. b Weighted by the volume of production. ? Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in calculating the OPEC average official sales price. Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898ROO0300120008-3 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3 OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price 11.29 11.02 11.77 3.39 12.88 12.93 mm mm 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 Annual Average 32.61 31.74 30.41 ffm 34.84 34.64 34.48 aawa~rev .,.....e... 34.06 34.05 33.37 33.57 33.53 Approved For Release 2008/06/04: CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120008-3