ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS 30 SEPTEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00898R000300120010-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: September 30, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
30 September 1983
DI EEI 83-020
30 September 1983
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Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids g
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
The EEI provides up-to-date information on changes in economic and energy
activities of major countries. It is updated from press ticker and embassy
reporting whenever possible.
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Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Jun
Jul
Aug
United States
-3.6
2.6
-8.1
9.9
18.3
17.0
26.6
11.0
Japan
4.7
1.0
0.4
3.6
6.7
12.3
West Germany
-0.8
-2.7
-3.1
5.5
12.0
32.8
-10.7
France
0.7
-2.6
-1.5
2.1
3.2
-24.3
United Kingdom
-6.4
-5.1
1.5
5.3
0.4
-18.8
Italy
5.5
-2.4
-2.2
-1.9
-9.8
-19.8
Canada
-1.5
0.9
-10.7
22.3
11.5
21.9
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Constant Market Prices; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
United States -0.3
2.6
-1.9
2.6
9.2
Japan 4.8
3.9
2.9
0.9
3.6
West Germany 1.8
-0.2
-1.1
2.2
France 1.1
0.2
1.7
United Kingdom -2.1
-2.2
1.4
6.8
Italy 3.9
0.1
-0.3
1.2
Canada 1.0
3.4
-4.4
7.6
7.5
Consumer Prices
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at au Annual Rate)
1980 1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Jul
Aug
United States 13.5 10.3
6.2
-0.4
4.2
4.9
Japan 8.0 4.9
2.6
0.6
1.1
-0.1
2.5
West Germany 5.5 6.0
5.3
0.3
1.4
4.5
8.0
France 13.5 13.3
12.0
11.1
10.5
7.7
8.5
United Kingdom 18.0 11.9
8.6
3.5
1.9
8.6
10.1
Italy 21.2 19.3
16.4
13.3
14.2
13.8
10.6
Canada 10.2 12.5
10.8
3.0
4.2
7.0
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Based on Amounts in National Currency Units; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
United States e
6.2
7.1
6.5
14.8
-2.6
29.8
10.7
9.3
2.6
Japan
0.8
3.7
7.1
-0.3
-20.4
13.0
5.9
53.0
West Germany
2.3
1.2
3.6
21.5
11.7
0.4
19.0
6.2
France
8.5
12.6
13.9
6.5
13.3
14.6
United Kingdom
4.5
NA
NA
9.8
14.7
18.0
32.3
-5.1
10.4
Italy
15.8
11.2
11.6
11.8
8.1
6.6
Canada
6.4
4.0
1.0
27.2
6.7
13.1
28.8
5.2
13.5
a Including M1-A and M1-
B.
Unemployment Rate 8
Percent
(Seasonally adjusted)
1980 1
981 1
982
1983
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
Jul
Aug
United States
7.1
7.5
9.6
10.2
10.0
9.3
9.0
Japan
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.5
West Germany
3.9
5.6
7.7
8.8
9.6
9.6
9.5
France
6.3
7.6
8.4
8.4
8.4
9.3
9.7
United Kingdom
6.4
10.0
11.7
12.5
12.6
12.4
12.3
Italy
7.6
8.4
9.1
9.8
NA
Canada
7.5
7.6
11.1
12.5
12.5
12.0
11.8
e Unemployment rates for France are estimated. For comparison
with the US rate, the rates for France and the United Kingdom
should be increased by 5 percent and 15 percent respectively. Italian
rates should be decreased by 50 percent; the rates for Japan,
Canada, and West Germany are comparable to US rates.
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Billion US $, f.o.b.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
e Converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
n Seasonally adjusted.
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Export Prices in US $
Percent Change From Previous Perio
d at an Annu
al Rate
1980
1981
198:
United States
10.6
9.2
1.5
Japan
6.6
5.5
-6.4
West Germany
7.2
-15.2
-3.0
France
11.7
-12.0
-5.5
United>Kingdom
22.5
NA
-7.3
Italy
17.4
-7.8
-3.3
Canada
17.4
3.9
-2.3
Import Prices in US $
Percent Change From Previous Peri
od at an Annu
al Rate
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3.1
1.8
-9.4
11.9
10.6
5.2
16.5
-14.6
-5.9
14.4
-13.2
-10.0
-29.1
-14.8
12.8
-17.9
-23.1
-19.5
-14.0
63.6
35.8
-11.7
-13.2
-4.8
3.9
15.3
-14.5
-4.0
49.2
United States
27.3
5.3
-2.0
Japan
35.5
3.6
-7.3
West Germany
15.7
-8.3
-5.4
France
19.4
-7.8
-7.2
United Kingdom
24.2
NA
-6.1
Italy
26.1
1.1
-7.3
Canada
16.8
8.7
-1.1
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun .
Jul
-12.3
-5.0
0.9
3.2
~.1
-24.6
-17.9
-4.0
25.4
-3.1
-11.1
-8.5
-25.3
-7.8
2.9
-32.3
26.2
-32.9
-11.0
45.6
11.2
-20.2
-11.7
0.4
-2.1
-2.4
-16.6
8.8
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United States
-0.4
10.5
10.6
-6.0
9.2
Japan
~.2
9.3
-5.7
46.5
5.2
West Germany
0.2
-2.1
7.0
10.4
4.2
France
0.5
-5.1
-6.1
6.7
-16.9
United Kingdom
9.8
2.5
-2.1
-31.1
24.3
Italy
-4.1
-9.2
-5.1
4.5
-4.9
Canada
-0.I
0.3
0.2
0.2
1.4
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
-3.5
2.7
-12.8
31.5
-4.1
-2.5
-21
West Germany
0.8
-24.6
-7.2
14.1
-13.4
-22.0
-45
France
0.7
-28.7
-20.8
10.1
-38.2
-21.4
~7
United Kingdom
9.6
-13.2
-13.4
-25.3
5.5
-15.3
-17
Italy
-3.1
-32.8
-18.8
9.4
-23.8
-18.5
-54
Canada
0.2
-2.5
-2.9
1.7
-1.2
0.1
-1
Money Market Rates
Percent
1980
1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Apr
May
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United I{IngdOm
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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Agricultural Prices
e The food index is compiled by The Economist for 16 food
commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imposts into industrialized
countries.
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Major US producer
71.6
77.3
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
LME cash
80.8
57.4
44.9
54.2
64.6
69.0
72.6
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, b per metric ton)
55.0
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
Copper a
(bar, ? per pound)
98.7
79.0
67.1
72.6
77.7
76.5
74.6
Gold
(S per troy ounce)
612.1
460.0
375.5
465.1
426.9
423.0
416.2
Lead a
(? per pound)
41.1
32.9
24.7
20.7
19.7
18.2
18.1
Manganese Ore
(4896 Mn, S per long ton)
78.5
82.1
79.9
78.2
75.4
69.8
69.8
Nickel (S per pound)
Composite US producer
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
3.0
2.7
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
Platinum (S per troy ounce)
Major producer
439.5
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
677.0
446.0
326.7
444.3
419.2
436.8
435.8
Rubber (? per pound)
Synthetic b
40.6
47.5
45.7
48.1
40.9
42.1
NA
Natural c
73.8
56.8
45.4
49.8
56.8
58.2
59.7
Silver
(S per troy ounce)
20.7
10.5
7.9
12:3
12.1
12.1
12.1
Steel Scrap d
(S pe: long ton)
91.2
92.0
63.1
67.0 ,
69.7
72.0
74.8
Tina
(? per pound)
761.3
641.4
581.6
580.9
615.1
597.9
582.2
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
S per metric ton)
18,219
18,097
13,426
10,356
11,118
10,104
9,521
US Steel
(composite,
S per long ton)
486.2
543.5
567.3
582.3
587.2
587.2
587.2
Zinc a
(? per pound)
34.4
38.4
33.7
31.0
32.5
33.6
36.4
Lumber Index a
(1975 =100)
167
159
140
187
202
201
184
Industrial
Materials Index f
184
166
142
142
154
158
159
a Approximates world market puce frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
c Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
19 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
Thoasand b/d
1980
1981
1982
Preliminary
1983
May
Jun
World
59,469
55,818
53,053
51,783
52,076
Non-Communist countries
45,244
41,593
38,803
37,418
37,711
Developed countries
12,859
13,579
13,276
13,521
13,413
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
8,670
8,688
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
1,174
1,200
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
2,237
2,045
Norway
528
501
518
600
625
Other
691
717
736
840
855
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,444
6,027
6,636
6,954
6,962
Mexico
1,937
2,312
2,749
2,794
2,775
Egypt
595
598
665
755
770
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
3,405
3,417
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,891
16,943
17,30
Algeria
1,020
803
701
600
700
Ecuador
204
211
211
200
220
Gabon
175
151
154
150
170
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,314
1,300
1,400
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
2,400
2,400
Iraq
2,514
993
972
900
900
Kuwait b
1,389
947
663
800
800
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
1,100
1,100
Neutral Zone ~
544
370
317
455
475
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
1,626
1,533
Qatar
471
405
328
277
298
Saudi Arabian
9,631
9,625
6,327
4,300
4,500
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
1,150
1,150
Abu Dhabi
1,343
1,131
876
800
800
Dubai
349
359
359
340
340
Sharjah
10
10
13
10
10
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
1,685
1,690
Commmust countries
14,225
14,225
14,250
14,365
14,365
USSR
11,700
11,790
11,800
11,860
11,860
China
2,118
2,024
2,040
2,085
2,085
Other '
407
411
410
420
420
e Preliminary.
n Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption .
United States a
17,006
16,058
15,296
Japari
4,674
4,444
4,204
West Germany
2,356
2,120
2,024
France
1,965
1,744
1,632
United Kingdom
1,422
1,325
1,345
Italy n
1,602
1,705 ~
1,618
Canada
1,730
1,617
1,454
e Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
n Principal products only.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
5,220
4,406
3,488
4,373
3,919
3,657
1,953
1,591
1,451
2,182
1,804
1,596
893
736
565
1,860
1,816
1,710
557
521
334
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
14,772
15,484
14,779
14,250
15,281
14,818
4,972
4,623
3,847
3,461
2,053
2,182
1,940
1,986
1,685
1,786
1,500
1,405
1,189
1,417
1,431
1,313
I ,227
1,253
1, 865
1,606
1,417
1,468
1,472
1,458
1,280
1,192
1,309
1,357
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2,268
2,232
2,970
3,234
3,502
3,697
3,978
3,715
3,672
3,604
2,975
3,337
3,099
1,279
1,264
1,279
1,385
1,279
1,312
1,163
1,155
1,148
1,331
1,492
242
371
303
537
467
1,490
1,490
215
195
143
93
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OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price a
US $ per barrel
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Jul
Aug
OPEC average n
18.67
30.87
34.50
33.63
28.75
28.72
Saudi Arabia
Berri
39 ? API 1.16% sulfur
19.33
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.50
29.50
Light
34? API 1.70%sulfur
17.26
28.67 .
32.50
34.00
29.00
29.00
Medium
31 ? API 2.40`70 sulfur
16.79
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.40
27.40
Heavy
27? API2.85%sulfur
16.41
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.00
26.00
Iran
Light
34? API 1.35%sulfur
19.45
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.00
28.00
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
18.49
33.60
35.57
29.15
26.90
27.10
Iraq ?
35? API 1.95%sulfur
18.56
30.30
36.66
34.86
29.43
29.43
Nigeria
34? API0.16%sulfur
20.86
35.50
38.48
35.64
29.85
29.85
UAE
39? API0.75%sulfur
19.81-
31.57
36.42
34.74
29.56
29.56
Kuwait
31 ? API 2.50~7o sulfur
18.48
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.30
27.30
Libya
40? API 0.2296 sulfur
21.16
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.40
30.40
Venezuela
26? API 1.52`70 sulfur.
17.22
28.44
32.88
32.88
27.88
27.88
Indonesia
35? API0.09%sulfur
18.35
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.53
29.53
Algeria
42? API 0.10'70 sulfur
19.65
37.59
39.58
35.79
30.50
30.50
t2atar
40? API 1.17% sulfur
19.72
31.76
37.12
34.56
29.49
29.49
Gabon
29? API 1.26 % sulfur
18.20
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.00
29.00
Ecuador
28? API 0.939'0 sulfur
22.41
34.42
34.50
32.96
26.70
26.70
e F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
n Weighted by the volume of production.
? Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
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OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price
30.87
1979 1980 1981
Pre-1974 prices are derived from posted and are not o%ci al sales prices.
Approved For Release 2008/06/04 :CIA-RDP84-008988000300120010-0