LETTER(Sanitized)FROM JEAN BIGLER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 60
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 22, 2001
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 9, 1970
• Content Type: LETTER

Approved For Releee 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0091000300010008-2
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
Office of Science Information Service
March 9, 1970
STATINTL
Deputy Director of Computer Services
Central Intelligence Agency
STATINTL Washington, D. C. 20505
Dear Mr.
Dr. Bamford asked me to forward to you the enclosed briefing for
your information.
Sincerely,
Jean Bigler
Secretary to the
Program Director
for Information Systems
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Rse 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0(3R000300010008-2
A Briefing
on
Scientific Communication
and the
Office of Science Information Service
National Science Foundation
March 1970
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Rase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-W3R000300010008-2
Our purpose here today is to place the process of scientific communication
in the context of the total scientific enterprise and to show how the
Office of Science Information Service contributes to that process.
It should be understood that when we speak of the Office we do so in the
extended sense of staff, consultants, cooperating reviewers, and the
Science Information Council, which shares the statutory basis of the
Office.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Re 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0093300300010008-2
0
0
v
0
0
0
Approved For Release 2001/03/06
bA
0
0
 Approved For Raase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0QA33R000300010008-2
-2-
If we are successful, when we conclude one-half hour from now we shall
Leave you with four thoughts:
1. Communication is not an optional adjunct of science. It
is an essential of the scientific enterprise.
2. The Office plays a 'key role in the procesb of scientific
3. The Office is guided by a strategy which we believe to be
forward-looking and well conceived, and
4. We may look forward to orderly growth and improvement of
the world's scientific communication system.
To begin, let us consider "scientific communication". It involves the
flow of scientific information from producers to consumers, two popula-
tions which as we know are not altogether distinct. The flow may vary
in its formality, the information may vary in its currency, and the
messages may vary in their physical form--they may be oral or written.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
Available
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Rele a 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-009 8000300010008-2
Producers and consumers have their own needs for communication.
-4-
Take the consumer. Whether his occupation be research, education,
administration, or technology, his choice is to obtain information
produced by others, to bear the burden of producing the needed information
himself, or to accept the penalty of ignorance. That penalty is greatest
in research, where each investigator builds upon what has gone before and
what has been learned strictly conditions what can be investigated, at
any given time.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDR84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For F ase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-NW33R000300010008-2
-5-
Shifting our attention now to the producer of scientific information,
we cannot doubt his need to disseminate his product. It is fashionable
to joke about and deprecate the rule of "publish or perish" under which
the academician lives, but that rule has served science well in two
respects. It has provided much of the motivation for the prodigious
growth of scientific knowledge in this century. And it has made possible
the quality control of scientific research through feedback of responsible
criticism by the investigator's peers. Indeed, this is the real meaning
of "discipline" in science.
The scientist may also take satisfaction in adding to man's store of
knowledge, and perhaps hope for a measure of immortality. Be that as
it may, his need to disseminate information is as real and as urgent
as his need to receive it.
The scientific community and society at large have a stake in the
conditions of effective scientific communication. If the effectiveness
of communication were reduced, the scientific enterprise as a whole
would suffer. By the same token, science can be strengthened by
facilitating its communication.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Rase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-04W33R000300010008-2 ,
-7-
In communicating, scientists employ a variety of media. Notable among
these are journals and other publications, conventions and other meetings,
and telephones and other services. Not to be overlooked are informal
written correspondence and conversations over coffee. To assist in using
these media, there are abstracting and indexing services, libraries,
data analysis centers, and informal referral networks. The totality
of these things is what we refer to when we speak of the communication
system of science, a complex network of interacting subsystems. No
one denies that such a system exists or that it works.
At the same time no one pretends that the system works perfectly or is
beyond any need for improvement. In this connection it is instructive
to consider what an ideal communication system for science might be
like. What would be the characteristics of a system which fully
satisfied the communication needs of both producer and consumer of
scientific information?
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For R*K-.ase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00433R000300010008-2
-8-
From the consumer's point of view, four system requirements can be
recognized:
Access: The ideal communication system would provide the
consumer with any information in existence which he might
need, in any field, and even if he didn't happen to know that
it existed, or where it could be found.
- Selectivity: Equally important, it would present only that
information which was needed. The consumer would not need to
screen his input for relevance, since it would all be relevant.
Speed: From the onset of a need for information to the presenta-
tion of that information there would be no delay.
- Form: The needed information would be presented ready for use.
It would not have to be translated, collated, plotted, or
otherwise pre-processed by the consumer.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 0010008-2
 Approved For RIWWase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0W+33R000300010008-2
Similar system requirements may be identified frorfi the producer's point
of view:
Usage: The ideal communication system would disseminate the
producer's output to every consumer who needs it, whatever
his field, whenever his need might arise, and whether or not
his existence is known to the producer.
Speed: There would be no delay between the production of
information and its presentation for use by those who need it.
Preparation: The producer would be relieved of all the routine
functions involved in preparing his output for dissemination.
Such functions as formatting, tabulating, plotting and proof-
reading would be no more his responsibility than the typing of
manuscript is today.
Against the background of these requirements, let us now consider the
scientific communication system as it exists today. That system involves
the participation of many kinds of organizations performing many different
functions and producing a multitude of information products and'services.
It is comprised of the people, organizations, and facilities which perform
functions and services contributing to the flow of scientific and technical
information.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 C1A- 13P. 009338000 00?10008-2
 Approved For Rase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-OW33R000300010008-2
-12-
As indicated here the existing system operates without any central
management or. control and without much concern over its overall efficiency
and- effectiveness. It is the result of many years of evolutionary change
in the structure of science, in the behavior of the scientific community,
and in the technological and economic factors of the communication
process. The wide gap between the needs now being served and those
which would be met by the ideal system is the primary basis for our
program, which is aimed at closing that gap.
The remainder of this presentation will focus on what we in the Office
of' Science Inrormation Service are doing and intend to do in pursuit of
our basic goal, closing that gap. We shall consider in turn the Office's
role with respect to each of its four major program areas --namely, system
operations, system improvement, research and studies, and the organizational
environment of the communication system.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 20
 Approved For Fase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-33R000300010008-2
With respect to our first program area, system operations, our goal is
for the communication system of science to provide information services
which collectively can pay their own way. To this end, we subsidize
innovative services during the transitional period in which operating
costs are not covered by operating revenues. Established services are
also subsidized during periods of deficit to prevent their interruption
or degradation before they are able to regain self-sufficiency. In both
cases, the subsidy is in the nature of pump-priming and is not intended
to continue indefinitely.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Z
O
O
Z
0
0
-2
 Approved For RWease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00833ROO0300010008-2
-22-
Over the past five years we have committed a third of our funds to
transitional operational support.
In these 5 years the greatest impact has been on the biblio-
graphic activities of the major abstracting and indexing
services. The coverage of these services has increased by
two-thirds, their speed has come to be measured in months
instead of years, and most of them have achieved self-
sufficiency through increased revenues and increased operating
efficiency.
In addition to our support of scientific journals and monographs
there have also been a number of innovations in the 5-year period.
Among them may be mentioned Communications in Behavioral Biology,
a multi-purpose scientific journal with selective dissemination
features, and the Mathematical Offprint Service, which distributes
individual copies of papers from the world's current mathematical
literature on a personal basis.
Seventeen scientific and engineering societies have been assisted
in producing scientific articles translated from foreign languages.
These articles have been published in 31 different translation
journals, 19 of which have become self-sufficient in the five-year
period. (In this connection it should be noted that 30% of the
world's scientific literature is produced in languages understood by
fewer than 5% of United States Scientists.)
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933ROO0300010008-2
 fed For F&ease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00433R000300010008-2
-23-
In addition to transitional support we have also served 13 agencies of
the Federal Government. Under Executive Order we have ;provided the
coordination and procurement necessary to implement the translation
activities of Public Law 4.80. In the five-year period :L966 through 1970,
29 major bureaus of the 13 agencies have been provided materials processed
from foreign languages. In this period, the Office obligated $62 millions
of Foundation funds and administered $4 millions on behalf of other
agencies. The translations procured in this program are available to the
scientific community through the Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and
Technical Information.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For ease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-O 33R000300010008-2
In our second program area, the development and improvement of the com-
munication system of science, our ultimate goal is the ideal system. Our
intermediate goals are recognizable steps in that direction. Some of these
intermediate goals are indicated here.
- Computerizing the communication system is probably the only
route to the great advances in the speed and selectivity of
information services needed to cope with the ever expanding
body of scientific knowledge. Even traditional services can
gain in dependability and efficiency from automation.
- Great extensions in access are possible in the form of
computer data banks.
- The formation of a world-wide distribution network, incorporating
consumer-oriented, as well as producer-oriented, elements expands
the usage of the communication system.
- Another intermediate goal is to unburden consumers and producers
of their pre-processing and preparation functions as rapidly as
these functions can be taken over by the communication system.
Although some pay-off from investment in these improvements can be hoped
for in the form of reduced costs for a given service, ,the real pay-off is
in increased productivity. We get some idea of what this means when we
reflect that a 1% increase in the productivity of scientists and engineers
in 1970 would be worth $272 millions.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2 01161/06 : -CK-RDIP84-OCM33ROO0300010008-2
 Approved For RaLease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0Q 33R000300010008-2
-32-
over the past five years, we have invested 47% of our funds to improve
the communication system of science. Let me mention some. of the major
results achieved to date.
- Comprehensive programs of system development have been organized
in the fields of chemistry and chemical engineering, physics and
astronomy, electrical and electronics engineering, psychology,
and linguistics.
- Computerized production and disseminationlof indexes, bibliographies,
and other products on the basis of centralized computer files have
been initiated in the fields of chemistry, biology, engineering,
and geology.
A computerized Chemical Registry System has been established with
a data base which now contains descriptions of more than one-and-
a-quarter million substances, more than one-and-a-half million
chemical names, and more than two-and-three quarters million
references to the scientific literature.
- Computerized stores of data on the literature of physics and
geology have been established; and similar files in such fields as
ichthyology, general biology, herpetology, engineering, paleontology,
plant taxonomy, psychology, and mathematics have been established in
museums and universities.
These and more will begin to pay off as more and; more consumer.-oriented
syutems develop the capability of offering services to consumers in their
own institutions.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
A roved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For R ease 2001/0NO6 : CIA-RDP84-00033R000300010008-2
Here are some of the consumer-oriented systems in which we have invested.
- The green flags indicate discipline-oriented information centers,
chiefly in the physical sciences and engineering. These univer-
sities are acting in the role of retailers of the "wholesale"
products of the discipline-oriented systems and the independent
banks already mentioned. They are also developing capabilities
to serve their campuses and surrounding industry using data banks
from abroad and from the Federal agencies.
- The red flags identify an Arid Lands Information System at the
University of Arizona and a Treaty Information System at the
University of Washington. Each of these is expected to serve
an international clientele.
- The six blue flags represent university library modernization
and networking projects. ,
Each of these university-centered systems is potentially a node in the
national and world-wide distribution networks. Some of them are already
providing services to scientists in academia, government, and industry.
The University of Georgia's system, for example, serves 1+,000 consumers,
including many of the Food and Drug Administration's bio-chemists. Physicists
at the Stanford. Linear Accelerator Center have available a prototype informa-
tion s crvic.e via on-line terminals. Chemists at the University of Pittsburgh
Land those in adjacent industry are'having their requests processed. against
tapes produced by the Chemical Abstracts Service of the American Chemical
Society, and this also holds true for the system being developed by the IIT
Research Institute.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 ,2001/0.3/06 .CIA-RDP84 00933R000300010y008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-069'33R000300010008-2
-35-
But the path to science's ideal communication system is beset with formidable
obstacles.
Technically, the major obstacle to progress is our surprisingly
meager understanding of how scientists and engineers go about
using and producing information. Everything considered,
however, the technical obstacles to growth are likely'to be
far more easily surmounted than the organizational ones.
Science is highly organized, but its organization is highly
decentralized. Its institutions tend to be parochial and its
bureaucracy conservative. Responsibility for :programs of
change or improvement is not readily accepted :nor easily
recognized. Aggressive leadership is in short supply, and
to organize any kind of joint action at the local, regional,
national, or international level is difficult. In a word,
the organizational environment is inhospitable to system growth.
- As to finances, improved services must be expected to cost more,
and inflation has been no kinder to scientists than to anyone
else. But the main financial obstacle to improving the communi-
cation system of science is the problem of financing the
improvement itself and the operation of the improved system
during a transitional period.
We shall indicate the nature and magnitude of the financial problem in a
few minutes, but first we want to take a look at what we can do about the.
technical and. organizational obstacles to growth.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Ila_
.2;i~C'3#^'}a7`i... I.j,.:.,~C04:':iP.1&:Y F'Cw000V ~`
 Approved For Lease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-bQ33R000300010008-2
_41-
Our third program area, research and studies in information science,
is aimed at overcoming the technical obstacles.
To cultivate a technological environment which is conducive to system
growth involves
Manpower: the provision of a cadre of scientists and engineers
who can design, develop, operate, evaluate, and modify modern
information systems;
- Research: the generation of new and improved methods for the
acquisition, organization, storage, search, manipulation,
presentation, and dissemination of scientific information;
- and the provision of the laboratory and experimental facilities
necessary for research and research training in this field.
"What about basic research?" Most research fundamental to progress in
scientific communication is actively supported by other programs of the
Foundation and the Federal Government. It can be,found in such fields
as solid state physics, the mathematical theory of information, computa-
tional linguistics, and social psychology.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For R ase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0 33R000300010008-2
-42-
Tn the pact five years we have committed more than $9 millions to the
advancement of the technological environment through research and studies
in information science.
A number of projects sponsored by the Office have helped
to set the stage for system devglopment. For example,
a research project at Stanford University provided the
nucleus of a university-centered science information system.
Several projects have contributed to the methodology of
information system evaluation. The first comprehensive
practical handbook on this subject will soon be published.
Progress has been made in mapping the communicationI atterns
of scientists and engineers so that the impact of modifications
to existing services can be assessed.
Other areas where contributions have been made include information theory
and computational linguistics, methods of retrieving information from very
large files or data bases, format compatibility and convertibility,
problems of handling full text, the linkage of a wide range of communi-
cation and computer equipment, and informal communication between scientists.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For F Yease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-0"33R000300010008-2
Unfortunately, there is a serious shortage of qualified investigators
in information science. We therefore support research centers in
information science and technology at leading universities. The criteria,
for support of our research centers are illustrated by the tripod of
this slide. To qualify for support of such a center, a'university must
offer an interdisciplinary environment where students can get research
training in information science and access to an operating information
service with real problems. Out of these centers are expected to come,
not only new concepts and methods, but also the professional personnel
needed to apply them to the existing communication system and to carry
on further investigation.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For IR tease 2001/6%06 : CIA-RDP84- 33800030001.0008-2
The world-wide organizational environment involves the relations between
government agencies, professional societies, industrial organizations, and
academia. In our fourth major program area we have sought to cultivate
an organizational environment conducive to orderly growth and improve-
ment of the world-wide communication system of science.
We have stimulated the formation of committees and councils
of leaders concerned with communication in various fields of
science, such as the Council of Biological Editors.
We have assisted in the formation of interdisciplinary
coordinative bodies, such as the National Federation of
Science Abstracting and Indexing Services.
We have encouraged and supported the activities of national
and international standardization authorities. Standards
have recently been developed for transliteration of cyrillic
characters and abbreviation of journal'titles,,
In addition, our grants have made possible the participation of United States
scientists in the work of international organizations, such as UNESCO and
the International Council of Scientific Unions, which are concerned with
scientific communication. And finally, the organizational environment has
been affected indirectly by our support of system operations and improvement.
For example, the Association of Scientific Information :Dissemination Centers
has recently been formed by a group of information centers in universities,
not-for-profit organizations, government, and industry to promote the
application of information storage and retrieval technology to large data
bases; to share experiences and information through meetings, seminars, and
workshops; to recommend standards for data elements and codes; and to promote
rA PP PaqdFPX4RJW 41 A06ffCcl [R84O00 R0QGM084Mu08-2
 D
Z
0
N
V
6 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Fase 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-O33R000300010008-2
-61-
Of the four program areas described, the chief emphasis in our strategy is
on improving the communication system of science through development.
System operations in any one year have at best a transient effect on the
scientific enterprise. To subsidize them may, at worst, encourage sub-
optimum practices. In any case, our total budget could subsidize no more
than a tiny portion of the flood of scientific information disseminated
annually. In contrast, even one-half of our budget would constitute a
major fraction of the total annual investment in improvement of the
communication system of science. And the impact of such investment is
cumulative, with each year's improvements built on those of.previous
years. Clearly, the emphasis belongs on investment, with operational
subsidies provided mainly in the period of transition following the
initiation of new or improved services.
The other areas are also subordinate to system improvement. Investment
in the communication system of science presumes an environment favorable
to the growth and refinement of that system. Among the obstacles which
we have identified to such growth and refinement are technical limitations
and adverse organizational arrangements. Accordingly, we foster advances
in the state of information technology and cultivate an organizational
environment conducive to scientific communication. The point'here is
that these functions support our primary function of investment in lasting
improvements of the communication system.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For I (ease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-60J33R000300010008-2
-62-
We have had to choose among three main approa6hes to such investment.
The Government could shoulder the full respon~ihjjjtv. It
could identify the specific needs to be met, plan for specific
services to meet those needs, implement thb plans, and provide
the services,, In this way it could retain the initiative,
simplify the problems of coordination, and avoid a number of
sticky problems altogether. But it would favo to underwrite
the whole program financially, and the scientific community
would have no real control over the services it receives or
the destiny of the system itself.
The Government could contract directly with the commercial and
non-commercial sectors to do all of these things. But then
its agents would have no other obligation than to fulfill the
terms of their contracts. Since the full responsibility would
remain in the Government, this procurement approach would be no
more than a minor variation on the in-house approach.
- The only real alternative to the in-house approach is for the
Government to recognize the responsibility of certain institutions
as agents of the scientific community and to assist them
financially in meeting the community's communication needs. In
this approach, the initiative belongs to the agent, along with
the responsibility. Control of its communication system is
vested in the scientific community, along with the burden of
supporting that system.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For 14alease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84 33R000300010008-2
-63-
Here are the criteria by which we screen the system improvement proposals
we receive. The first two flow directly from the strategy of reliance on
responsible agents. Thus to qualify for help in improving the communi-
cation system of science an applicant must show that it represents a
significant scientific community and that it is charged with and has
accepted responsibility for serving that community's communication needs.
The applicant must then demonstrate a state of readiness to discharge
its responsibility. This involves two elements: (1) the applicant's
commitment to an explicit and credible goal and to one or more specific
objectives, and,(2) the probability that each specific objective will be
achieved at a cost less than its potential value. The probability of
success is obviously a function of the technical and management resources
at the applicant's command.
Applicants which qualify for support by reason of the first three criteria,
"the three Rs", must compete with each other for the limited funds which
are available. The highest priority is given to nondeferrable projects
within organized programs of system development and improvement. The
next priority is given to other nondeferrable projects, and the lowest
priority goes to projects which can be deferred without great penalty to
science. Competing projects within any given priority class are funded
in accordance with their readiness.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84 33R000300010008-2
-64-
TTere are some important implications of the strategy of reliance on
responsible agents:
- A responsible agent may be assisted to a state of readiness.
Much of the office's budget in recent years has gone to help
such agents acquire the technical and managerial know-how to
carry out a program of system improvement.
- When two or more responsible agents recognize a need for joint
action of any kind it must be presumed that they will initiate
it. The Government can only make sure that the channels of
communication are open and that no agent is artificially
sheltered by Federal subsidy from a real need to cooperate.
Ownership of assets created by a responsible agent on behalf of
the community it represents must vest in that agent, as long
as the Government's assistance is extended explicitly in
consideration of the agent's responsibility. Unfortunately,
we have the bugbear of exploitation of the scientific community
by its own agents. But for the Government to guard against
misuse of assets by reserving controlling rights in them to
itself would be in effect to relieve the agent of its responsibility.
Other mechanisms exist by which the use,of assets can be regulated
in the public interest--e.g., legislation, litigation, and the
withholding of funds. But the simplest and most straightforward
regulation is that which the community does for itself, through its
established inatitutions,to protect the varied interests of its
Approv' F~I~ef~3/veet~Pa94-009338000300010008-2
 STRATEGY: COST
FY 1966 70 71
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
40MAXIMUM LEVE- 40
V) 30 ACTUAL PROJECTED
OBLIGATIONS NEEDS
0
0 MINIMUM LEVEL
0 20
 Approved For aiease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84933R000300010008-2
A major implication of our strategy is its cost:
Here we have the Office's actual obligations over the
past five years for system operations (bottom red),
system improvement (green), and cultivation of an or ani-
zational and technological environment (reddish) conducive
to system growth. The annual total over that period
averaged just over $11 millions.
Over here we have our minimum projections of :need over
the next five years, adding up to nearly 020 millions
per year on the average.
If we were to use our maximum projections of need, the
average annual rate would exceed $36 millions.
Please note that these are projections of need, not of future obligations.
Whether and to what degree the needs will actually be met remains to be
seen.
Taken by themselves, these figures are impressive, particularly the
projections. But let us consider them in context. $11 millions per
year is only about 3% of the total Federal outlay for scientific and
Lechnical information in Fiscal Year 1969, and less-than 1/10 of 1% of
L-he total :Federal outlay for research and development that year.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For R !ee se 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
-74-
Extending the context of these figures a little further, let's look at
how they stack up against the benefits which may be expected.
- ForSci ence, our program promotes the continuity of
essential services, discourages unnecessary duplication
or scientific resources, and brings about a continuing
rise in the productivity of scientists and engineers.
- Benefits to the nation as a whole include increasingly
valuable information resources for use in attacking the
urgent problems of society, a diminishing time-lag from-
research-to-application-to-production-to-use.. expanded
markets and employment opportunities, and heightened pres-
tige and leadership in international affairs
Our transcendent goal, of course, is the ideal communication system
described earlier. Looking into the future, it is not difficult to discern
that system evolving from the one which exists today.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84' 933R000300010008-2
-75-
Today's system, sometimes referred. to as "the baseline", is represented
here. As you can see, the formal circuit is probably the slowest route
which information can -take from production to consumption--i.e., from the
author--through primary publication--through secondary or bibliographic
services--through libraries and information centers--and. on to the
consumers.
-75a-
Because of this slow and. cumbersome arrangement it is not surprising
to find. the system short-circuited by both consumers and producers.
Consumers informally scan the rimar and secondary literature, arrange.
to receive preprints of articles in their fields of interest, and
establish direct contacts with producers via mail, telephone and meetings.
Producers likewise circulate their manuscripts to known colleagues and
participate in various other informal ways to tell the world of their
latest achievements.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 d For Release~ZQqA
00030001000
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For R?1ease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-b 933R000300010008-2
-76-
Largely by means of the computer, the baseline system is already being
modernized for the sake of increased efficiency and dependability, as
well as to increase its speed and selectivity.
Publication can be upgraded by computer-assisted type-
setting and distribution.
- Bibliographic organization can be assisted by computerized
indexing and storage.
- Literature retrieval by computerization of search procedures
is practical.
-76a-
Given such modernization, the integration of separate functions becomes
feasible at an early stage. To eliminate duplication and to effect
economies of scale, the secondary publishers can be expected to operate
directly on magnetic tapes produced in the primary publication process.
Similarly, search and retrieval can be expected to employ tapes produced
In t;ho course of organizing the primary literature., Indeed, the publi-
cation of abstracts and indexes as we have known them may gradually
di ,appear.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For I& lease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84 933R000300010008-2
Going one step farther in this process we can easily anticipate a more
advanced level of integration in which
- manuscript is entered directly into a comprehensive
machine-readable file of recorded knowledge,
- the system select contents of the file for presentation
to the consumer as required by him, and
both primary and secondary publications as we know them
will disappear.
Ultimately, even manuscripts and formal articles may vanish. TYB system
will communication with producer and user in their own. terms, unconstrained
by the classical formalities of reporting.
We do not,, of course, look forward to a monolithic or centralized computer
system, as this display may suggest. What we do anticipate is a world-
wide, adaptive, and increasingly intricate network of overlapping specia-
lized facilities, including computers.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2
 Approved For Re001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933000300010008-2
I-
0
0
v
0
w
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R
 (Follows, a -Appiuvwd For I lease 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-933R000300010008-2
Now let us review the message.
-2-
- We have attemped to show that communication is indispensable
to science, needed alike by consumers and producers of scientific
information. Our program arises in the wide glop between the
needs being met today and those which would be met by the ideal
communication system.
- Our ultimate goal is to close that gap. To that end, we
subsidize information services as necessary, invest in lasting
improvements of the communication system of science, and
cultivate an environment conducive to system growth both
technically and organizationally.
Our main emphasis is on the investment function, which is
supported by our other functions. We rely on responsible
agents of the scientific community to make the improvements
in which we invest. To select our investments we invoke the
three Rs--Representation, Responsibility, and Readiness.
Full implementation of our strategy over the next five years
will require between $100 millions and $180 millions.
Looking ahead, while we cannot foresee the full realization of
the ideal communication system, we can discern an orderly
development of the existing system in the direction of the
ideal, with manifold benefits to science and society at every
point along the way.
Approved For Release 2001/03/06 : CIA-RDP84-00933R000300010008-2