MAURICE ERNSTS PAPER IS ATTACHED.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000200280014-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 14
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/04 C1A-F3P841300049R000200280014-0
4 December 1981
Maurice Ernst's paper is attached.
While we eventually come to the same conclusion, I have two general
disagreements with Maurice:
-- First, I think his paper is much too optimistic.
Maurice is convinced that the Polish situation has bottomed
out and is beginning on the upswing. I am not convinced
that the situation has bottomed out, but even if it has I
believe that it could remain at the present level indefinitely.
I see no general upswing. low
-- Second, Maurice claims that as the situation in Poland
improves we can hope to see the Poll become somewhat more
independent in foreign policy and also somewhat less responsive
to the Soviets in the Warsaw Pact. I strongly disagree. The
Po's know, and have demonstrated repeatedly in the past year,
that the minimum price for their experiment in pluralism is
absolute fealty to Soviet foreign policy and their military
commitments under the Warsaw Pact. I am certain they will
take great care not to give the Soviets serious doubt in these
areas. They know this is a precondition for keeping the Soviets
out.
I have various quibbles elsewhere in the paper as noted ex. a cv*f4- a,14IO @b"-
Bob 0 tes