SITUATION REPORT: POLAND

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000200340006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2007
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: December 22, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
22 December 1981
Information as of 1600
SITUATION REPORT: POLAND
The regime continues to project an image of returning to
"normalcy." The first announced meeting of the politburo took
place today, and the military presence in Warsaw appears to have
been reduced. The curfew in the Gdansk region has been
shortened, and newspapers currently not being published
apparently will reappear next Monday. According to a government
spokesman, some internees have been released, with others to
follow depending on how pacification proceeds. These all appear
to be cultural figures, not Solidarity activists ho mi ht return
to the factories in order to organize resistance.
At the same time the Polish party's Central Committee is
reporting a decline in strike activity, it notes that Solidarity
has absorbed the initial shock of martial law and is now
attempting to rebuild its structure. Union militants are
reported to be active in Warsaw and several provinces and
Solidarity banners are reappearing in some factoriec_
The regime's press spokesman, who reiterated that Solidarity
was only suspended, also claims that Walesa is conducting talks
with representatives of the government. Although there is no
other information to confirm this, Walesa apparently has been
moved to Warsaw, perhaps to facilitate preliminary exchanges with
the Church and the authorities. Until now Walesa has been
adamant about not negotiating until the union's senior officials
are freed. As recently as yesterday, Archbishop Glemp told the
US Ambassador that Walesa was resisting talks.
The government still faces some trouble spots. Three
facilities in Katowice remain on strike--two mines where nearly
3,000 workers are still on strike and Huta Katowice where the
Central Committee admitted today around 1,000 are on strike. A
US embassy officer, observing the steel plant, noted that only
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two of the eight smokestacks were emitting smoke. At the change
of shifts in mid-afternoon, he saw only office workers coming out
and no workers entering. The church is trying to mediate the
confrontation in the mines. told a US 25X1
embassy officer that he "hopes" the situation will end
peacefully, although both the miners and police are "nervous."
In Gdansk where shipyard workers have been told to stay home
until 4 January, military crews apparently have replaced them.
Industrial installations r areas appear to be operating at
a less than normal level. 25X1
Pope John Paul II's message to Jaruzelski Friday was an
emotional appeal to end martial law and resolve the crisis
through peaceful dialogue in order to avoid further bloodshed.
The same message was sent to the Primate, Archbishop Glemp, and
to Walesa. Bishop Dabrowski, who has been the Polish churchman
most often in contact with regime officials, is currently in
Rome, presumably giving the Pope an update on his mediating
efforts. The Pope's appeal is likely to have a strong Impact on
Walesa and the Polish populace when it is publicized. 25X1
The regime has taken some steps to control future activities
of the intelligensia, according to the consulate in Krakow.
Offices of nearly all publications except the regime's have been
sealed and the staffs given "vacation" until the end of the
year. At that time they will be selectively "rehired." The
government has asked various individuals, primarily professors,
writers and priests to sign loyalty oaths.
Soviet forces in the western USSR and in Poland were seen
conducting routine training activity today. This suggests that
the Soviets are satisfied with the results of martial law in
and are not readying combat forces to move on Poland.
Combat elements of six divisions in the western USSR were
seen overnight; only the one at Vladimir Volynskiy in the
Carpathian Military District showed signs of increased
activity. Most of the tanks in the tank regiment were seen out
of their sheds.
In Poland, elements of a Soviet tank division were seen
conducting routine training activity in their garrison and
training areas. The other Soviet tank division in Poland
probably was involved in training yesterday. I I
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Thp Soviet ambassador to Mauritius, 25X1
I told a leftist contact that Lech 31
a esa was a "good socialist" who would make the decisions
necessary for the good of his country. The remark of the
Ambassador, who was presumably speaking in accord with official
guidance, suggests that, at least on 17 December, the Soviets
regarded Walesa as a potentially useful tool who could be
employed to reshape Solidarity along the submissive lines of
"official" Soviet unions. This Soviet assessment may have been
shaken in the interim by Walesa's intractability. Nevertheless,
the ambassador's remarks suggest that Moscow is encouraging the
Poles to search 'gures among the arrested leaders
of Solidarity. 25X1
In a move a arentl connected with the ion of
martial law, the entire 25X.1
KGB department ea ing wt Poland was placed on alert and that
officers had to be on call during off hours. The alert status
presumably remains in effect. He also claimed that there was a
"colossal" number of KGB personnel in Poland, including many
"illegals" who worked under foreign cover to infiltrate
Solidarity. Such an extensive network of informants and
operatives might give Moscow a clearer picture of the situation
on the ground in ngthen its ability in dealing
with the regime. 25X1
Eastern European Reaction
The media in the Warsaw pact states continue to stress a
"gradual return to normalcy in Poland," but private reactions
within the moderate Hungarian leadership are more pessimistic.
The inde ednt Yugoslavs are openly more critical of the Polish
regime.
An official Hungarian assessment of 18 December stressed
that Jaruzelski's gamble may not work without some cooperation
from Solidarity and that serious shortages could lead to a
"popular uprising." The report, which preceded Kadar's visit to
Moscow last weekend, suggested that the Soviets were not entirely
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pleased that the military, rather than the party, was taking
charge. Hungarians speculated, however, that Soviet leaders
would accept "Polish arm ascendancy" at least for the present
rather than intervene.
expert in foreign affairs privately has
expressed concern to us that intervention may be the only
alternative in the long term. He said that Hungary is
sympathetic to the Poles' plight and willing to send food.
Budapest announced for the first time on 21 December that it had
joined other socialist countries in sending food to Poland.
In Yugoslavia, there has been a steady erosion of the
initial tone of guarded understanding for the Polish military's
seizure of power. On 18 December, Stane Dolanc, an influential
member of the party leadership, decried the Polish military
takeover as a precedent that "could have grave consequences for
Poland, the international workers movement and international
relations in general." Since 'Warsaw admitted that there had been
bloodshed, the Yugoslav media has been even more pessimistic,
focusing on the lack of a "political dialogue" in Poland and the
failure of the Polish Part t meet the Polish workers' appeals
for "socialist renewal."
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