NORTH SEA GAS: ALTERNATIVE TO SOVIET SUPPLIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000200420005-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/07/13: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200420005-4
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North Sea Gas:
Alternative to Soviet Supplies
North Sea gas could provide Western Europe with an alternative
to future purchases of Soviet ~;as, provided agreements can be
reached with the Norwegians on a satisfactory price. Norway alone
could supply Western Europe with an additional 4 to 5 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) by the mid-1990s, provided the market for
North Sea gas is not preempted by major additional sales of Soviet
gas. A triangular gas deal involving Norway, the Netherlands, and
the United Kingdom, could provide West European customers with
some additional supplies as soon as the late 1980s. Such an
arrangement, which would have 'to overcome political and economic
obstacles, would connect southern UK gasfields to the continent
and give the Europeans added flexibility in dealing with a gas
import shortfall. Because of long leadtimes and political con-
straints, large additional supplies of North Sea gas are unlikely
before the mid-1990s. Existing contracts for Dutch gas exports
are scheduled to be phased out in the late 1980s and early 1990s,
but could be extended to provide additional supplies in the
interim.
Approved For Release 2007/07/13: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200420005-4 ,
 Approved For Release 2007/07/13: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200420005-4
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Nigeria:
Prospects for Gas Exports to Europe
The sharp decline in projected gas needs in Western Europe and
Nigeria's continued inability t:o proceed with any gas project make
it unlikely that Lagos will provide any gas supplies to Europe
before the early 1990s. The long-awaited Bonny LNG project (590
billion cubic feet per year) has been terminated, and most of the
major participants are unwilling to consider another export project
at present. In addition, the financial difficulties caused by
the soft oil market will make '_Lt difficult for the Nigerians to
provide their share of the capital necessary for any type of export
project in the next few years.
Still, a likely decline in the amount of oil available for
export will cause the Nigerians to undertake some kind of gas
export project in the 1990s similar in scope to the Bonny project.
Nigeria's huge gas reserves of 100 trillion cubic feet could
eventually support several LNG projects or a pipeline system through
North Africa. To ensure that markets will exist for its gas,
however, Lagos will need to demonstrate the same pricing flexibility
that it has shown in recent months on oil sales.
Approved For Release 2007/07/13: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200420005-4