COMMENTS ON DOE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES/ANGTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000400840009-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 7, 2008
• Sequence Number: 9
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/03/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400840009-2
?
Comments on DOE Energy Alternatives/ANGTS
?
1. With respect to the LI'.IG options presented in the DOE
paper, the magnitude of potential Algerian LNG supplies that
would become available to the West European market, as a result of
US policy initiatives is overstated. Algeria's failure to .
construct additional LNG plants means that present capacity is
insufficient to meet current contract commitments. Even if
presently constructed plants reach full operational capacity of
1.1 trillion cubic feet per year, current contracts, including
the idle El Paso contract, will total almost 1.3 tcf/yr.
Operational capacity is likely to average only .9 tcf/yr.
Nonetheless, Algeria will be able to supply an additional I
tcf/yr of gas by the late !980s with construction of additional
2. We believe Nigeria, for reasons similar to Algeria, will
go ahead with an LNG project. Lack of US participation and
concern over market prospects in Europe, however, probably will
pipelines.
cause Lagos to scale down the project.
DOE review completed.
Approved For Release 2008/03/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400840009-2 `'`"
 Approved For Release 2008/03/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400840009-2
3. The other issues presented, Norwegian gas, coal,
nuclear, and Saudi oil are clearly non-starters. A potential
consideration and one which has antagonized the Dutch already via
the rumor circuit is to encourage the Netherlands to extend gas
contracts to selected customers (W. Germany, France, and Belgium)
for a few more years. Dutch reserves have increased slightly in
the past two years and sales have fallen both domestically and in
the export market. Such a tactic would delay the immediacy for
Soviet gas that some countries now feel. The Dutch, however,
have shown no inclination yet that they are willing to relax
measures to conserve gas for domestic needs.
4. In addition tcorrnents on ANGTS, the development
of chilled gas technology+`and far north gas reserves probably
will not create greater supplies for Western Europe before the
mid-1990s.
Approved For Release 2008/03/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400840009-2 _""~