POTENTIAL NON-US GRAIN SUPPLIES FOR THE USSR, 1983 MARKETING YEAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 23, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4
Potential Non-US Grain Supplies for the USSR, 1983 Marketing Year
Million Tons
Current
Total
Committed Exports a
Uncommitted
Production
Export
Supplies
Non-USSR USSR
Exports
Total
332.5
82.6
40.4
17.0
25.2
Argentina
28.9
17.0
2.5
5.5
9.0
Australia
19.0
14.0
10.0
0
4.0
Canada
47.8
24.3
10.0
10.0
4.3
Eastern Europe
96.2
1.0
0
1.0
0
European Community
124.6
19.0
13.0
0
6.0
South Africa
11.4
4.3
4.3
0
0
Thailand
4.6
3.0
0.6
0.5
1.9
a The figures for non-USSR committed exports include both long-
term grain agreements and likely exports to major traditional
customers.
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 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4
WESTERN EUROPE - USSR: Pipeline Developments
The French Government's announcement yesterday ordering French
companies to fulfill all existing contracts with the USSR is the
first direct attempt b the West Europeans to circumvent US pipeline
sanctions.
Comment: The French move--which forces Alsthom-
Atlantique to fulfill its contract of November 1981 to
supply 40 sets of turbine rotors manufactured under li-
cense from General Electric--may encourage other West
European governments to defy the sanctions. The West
Europeans may have, in fact, coordinated their efforts
to some degree already.
The decision by France marks a major breakthrough
for the USSR in its efforts to circumvent the US sanc-
tions. Delivery of the 40 Alsthom rotors, which probably
were intended originally as spares for the 120 rotors to
be built by GE, could enable the three West European
turbine builders to meet their initial delivery obliga-
tions to the Soviets.
In addition to the 40 rotors in Alsthom's existing
contract, a total of some 20 GE-produced rotors are held
by Nuovo Pignone of Italy, John Brown of the UK, and
AEG-Kanis of West Germany. These rotors were shipped by
GE before the imposition of sanctions last December.
Their delivery was to have begun this month, but the
Soviets gave the West Europeans until early August to
decide whether or not to defy US sanctions.
If the West Europeans now decide to build and ship
the turbines, Moscow would have half of the 120 25-mega-
watt turbines planned for the pipeline. Installing just
these turbines would allow operation of the pipeline at
around 90 percent of capacity. Deliveries then could
total about 28 billion cubic meters annually; current
cont 1~_~l total only 22 billion cubic meters annually.
I "L
To acquire the remaining 60 or so turbines planned
for the pipeline, the Soviets could contract to purchase
the needed rotors from Alsthom--the only company holding
a license to produce the GE-designed rotors. They also
could produce turbines of their own design, possibly
with manufacturing assistance from West European firms.
23 July 1982
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4
X1
X1
X1
USSR: Status of Grain Crop
The grain crop in the USSR this year probably will amount to
only about 165 million tons, and it could be considerably lower. F
Drought and hot, dry winds in mid-June in the main
spring wheat belt substantially reduced potential yields
of both winter and spring grains. A more intensive
drought in the first two weeks of July hit when grain
kernels were forming.
Comment: Another bout of hot, dry weather in the
spring grain areas or a prolonged harvest in the Euro-
pean USSR--which could subject late-sown spring grain to
early, killing frosts--could result in a crop far smaller
than the unofficially reported 158-million-ton harvest in
1981. II
Moscow's long-range plans to become less dependent
on grain imports from the West have been thwarted again.
Regardless of the actual harvest, the USSR this year may
import as much as 50 million tons of grain--somewhat above
the record level in 1981 of 46 million tons. With bumper
harvests and record grain stocks in key exporting countries,
the Soviets will have little difficulty lining up these
imports.
to obtain grain scheduled for other countries.
The USSR is likely to obtain some grain from the US.
If Moscow decides to avoid the US market, however, nearly
the entire amount probably could be obtained from other
major exporters--especially Canada, Argentina, Australia,
and the EC countries--if it is willing to pay a premium
quantities of grain required to meet domestic needs.
A fourth consecutive poor grain crop and the resulting
lackluster overall agricultural performance jeopardize
President Brezhnev's promise last May of an improved food
supply in 1982. Even with heavy grain imports, a 165-
million-ton crop would leave the USSR far short of the
0
The crucial shortage of livestock feed could be
eased by a reduction of grain directed to food and indus-
trial uses. Nonetheless, some distress slaughter, primar-
ily of hogs, would be necessary to alleviate the shortage.
Even with this additional meat available, meat production
this year would fall below the level in 1981 of 15.2
X1 million tons.
25X
25X
25X
25X1
23 July 19
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000501320002-4