TALKING POINTS FOR THE DCI

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601430012-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 12, 2007
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: December 16, 1981
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP84B00049R000601430012-0
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16 December 1981
As of 1430
Talking Points for the DCI
The limited reporting available confirms Solidarity
continues to resist martial law with strikes and sit-ins.
Union has not been able to coordinate a nationwide
general strike. 3 _ ~,/t~
voo ti
Solidarity sources report Walesa is counseling non-
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violence and passive resistance. (~~,,,~
If militant local chapters resort to industrial
sabotage, likelihood of violence would greatly increase.
Use of Force
Regime ~i-11 use police rather than military forces in
confrontational situations as long as possible.
- ,.~_Troops from 12 of 15 Polish divisions have deployed
Warsaw and six other areas.
No evidence of preparations by Soviet combat forces to
intervene.
Jaruzelski also is attempting to persuade the union leaders
to negotiate a new accord with much less autonomy for the union.
Regime hopes to get aid of the church.
Walesa will resist at least until union officials
released.
Soviet Political
Soviet media -- Since yesterday Soviet media have become
more strident.
Martial law termed "a first step," implying it expects
more from Warsaw.
Lashing out at US "interference" in Poland,
characterizing Haig's statement and suspension of food
credits as blackmail of Poles to attain "imperialist
aims."
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 Soviet B~halr~ior
~ L- \`//~f
~
1
-- They a'~e s
ti s ~ ed so fa
-- Kulikov on hand in 4Jarsaw to prevent backsliding by Poles
and to keep pressure on Jaruzelski.
Allied Reaction
The Allies are restraining public comment, pending better
information on Polish developments. Nest Germany., however,
privately sympathizes with ~aruzelski's position.
bes .
selected.. locations. F ti ome of those
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Bonn believes that army intervention was preferable to
Soviet invasion.
Also feels it is in West's interest for garuzelski to
succeed.
Prospects
Immediate Future: If faced with continued resistance and in particu7s~r
occupation of some enterprises, the regime vrill probably use force in care~;~l1y
following probabilities to different outcomes:
Mid-Term (30-60 Days): The Intelligence Community attaches roughly the
-- Genuine_Solidarity-ReQime_accomodation~ About 10%.
_-_ _ _= -~- ~.~+Cp~~~ur~~ a~ttf--set eet~ve_ u~e'? ~rF_-faree_ ~= J~tc~..fi5~_ _ . _ _ ..
tFe~~c~r~~~~.a~ar~_Saar-iel-.r~ilit~r?C:~~e~e~l~gn^_ :~R~~' ~;f_=
(.Even if it is able to reassert control, the regime will still face
passive resistance and possibly sabotage. These actions combined t~~ith the
disorganization produced by martial lati~r point to c^ntinued economic decline,
reoccuring politico-economic crises, and ne~~~ appeals to the l~Jest for economic
help.
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Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP84B00049R000601430012-0
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