SSG BRIEFING ON IRANIAN THREAT TO GULF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601460011-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 9, 2007
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: December 31, 1981
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601460011-8
TOP SECRET
31 December 1981
SSG Briefing
Iranian Threat to the Gulf
q Iran has not followed up its threats made last week
against its Persian Gulf neighbors supporting Iraq. Tehran
retains the capability to attack port and oil facilities in
these co,
aircraf
Iran, however, has been reluctant to attack neighbors
other than Kuwait--against which it has staged three strikes--
in part because it fears reprisals on its own, port and oil
facilities. The Saudis, if attacked, could, for example,
close the Gulf to shipping bound for Iranian ports and could
allow the Iraqi Air Force to operate out of Saudi bases
against Iranian oil facilities.
Nonetheless, Iran's recent battlefield successes
against the Iraqis have produced a new sense of confidence
in Tehran, which may embolden Iran in its efforts to con-
vince the Gulf states that aid to Baghdad is both futile and
short-sighted. So far, Iran's warnings have gone unheeded,
and Tehran might come to the conclusion that at least another
demonstration attack is needed.
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/10/19: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601460011-8