TALKING POINTS ON LEBANON SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490048-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2007
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: June 14, 1982
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/07/12 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490048-5
TOP SECRET,
14 June 1982
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : Charles E. Waterman, NIO/NESA
SUBJECT: Talking Points on Lebanon Situation
New Factors
-- Israeli forces completed the isolation of West Beirut last
night, setting up road blocks on the Beirut-Damascus highway,
and cutting off the PLO and Syrian troops remaining in the city.
- Elements of the Israeli force have reached the area
of the Lebanese presidential palace.
- Israeli forces were reportedly in control of the
Beirut airport.
-- The Israeli-Syrian ceasefire is holding, but there was heavy
fighting yesterday between the Israelis and Palestinians.
-- Possibly as many as 2,000 Iranian troops have arrived in Syria
and some 300 of these may be in Beirut. Turkey has secretly
approved the daily transit of two Iranian aircraft.
-- New reporting supports our estimates that Syria has lost nearly
a hundred fighter aircraft and that the Syrian 1st Armored
Division was severely crippled in last week's fighting.
-- Three additional Soviet IL-76 military transports flew over
Turkey to Syria over the weekend, making seven such flights
since Thursday. We have no information on cargo.
Basic Trends
We hold no hard information thus far on the overtly-reported
"
Government of National Unity." If it is what it seems, it
is a positive step in the reassertion of control by the "Central"
government of southwest Lebanon. It renders the all-important
reformation of the Lebanese army, including some militia elements,
more feasible. The inclusion of Phalange leader Jumayyil,
Druze leader Junblat, and Shia leader Berri - portends well for
this trend. . ?.ti,~~,~
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TOP SECRET
-- Further Israeli tactical victories in the south Beirut
area reinforce the feasibility of forcing armed Palestinian
(and any remaining Syrian) forces from the Beirut area. Any
Maronite militia or Lebanese army move into west Beirut would
do likewise.
-- In short, all trends noted in our discussions of yesterday remain
intact.
Charles E. Waterman
Attachment:
Israel-Lebanon Task Force
Situation Report #12
TOP SECRET
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Approved For Release 2007/07/12 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490048-5
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MEMORANDUM FOR: DCI,/
military-technological implications of the war thus
far, which will be delivered to you later this morning.
3. I suggest a brief discussion of latest trends and
their implications may be useful later today, prior to
2. NIO/''rP has put together an analysis of the
1. I will update the talking points and tren
by early afternoon, in time for NSPG.
C.Waterman
NIO/NESA
Approved For Release 2007/07/12 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490048-5