THE BATTLE OVER THE MX

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060038-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: December 6, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2007/03/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060038-0
NEW,SW4EEK 6 DECEMBER 1982 (30 NOV) Pg. 38
it ne Battle Over the MX
Even by Reagan-administration stand-
ards, it was a massive public-relations
blitz. Congressional leaders trooped to the
White House for private conferences. Pen-
tagon officials held a dizzying array of tech-
nical briefings. And the president himself,
armed with state-of-the-art electronic
graphics, went on national television to pre-
sent a frightening view of the U.S.-Soviet
missile gap. The solution, Reagan declared,
was "Dense Pack," a $26.4 billion plan to
place 100 MX missiles in a narrow strip of
land outside a U.S. Air Force base near
Cheyenne, Wyo. But as impressive as last
week's sale effort was, "Dunce Pack," as
some critics call it, met with continuing
skepticism.
Dense Pack is controversial for the sim-
ple reason that no one is sure it would work.
In theory, the closely spaced missiles-
buried in superhardened silos about 1,800
feet apart-would be protected by a concept
known as "fratricide." The first Soviet war-
heads to hit the site would create such a
Nobel Prize-winning physicist who headed
Reagan's Dense Pack studies, has privately
cautioned the Pentagon against underesti-
mating the obstacles to superhardening the
MX silos by the target date of 1986.
Pentagon planners nevertheless see ad-
vantages to developing Dense Pack soon. To
try to thwart the system, they say, the Sovi-
etswould have to reverse theirmissile-devel-
opment program, abandoning lightweight
multiple-warhead missiles in favorofsingle,
massive warheads. Even if the Soviets suc-
ceed in immobilizing the U.S. MX force fora
period of hours, proponents say, the United
States could retaliate with its submarine-
based missiles. (Critics argue that the Unit-
ed States already has that option without the
new $26 billion MX program.)
Another problem with Dense Pack is that
it appears to violate the unratified SALT II
?reaty, which both Moscow and Washing-
ton have pledged to respect. MX supporters
hope-somewhat implausibly-to skirt the
treaty's ban on new fixed silo launchers by
equipping each MX with its own portable
launcher. Pentagon planners also have sug-
gested that Dense Pack could be defended by
an antiballistic missile system to ensure its
survivability-a step that would clearly vio-
late the 1972 ABM treaty. The official Soviet
newspaper, Pravda, warned last week that
the Soviet Union would be forced to "find an
effective reply" if the United States does
deploy the MX. In-response, U.S. officials
vigorously denied that MX would violate
any existing arms agreements.
In Cheyenne, the president's plan drew
mixed reactions-not unlike "a teen-age
daughter coming home at 3 a.m. with a
Gideon Bible under her arm," joked Wyo-
ming Gov. Ed Herschler. Some antinuclear
church groups will fight the plan, as will
some ranchers and farmers whose land falls
within the sites the Pentagon planners are
eying. But businessmen welcomed the pros-
pect of an average of 3,500 MX construc-
tion workers pumping an estimated $70
million a year into the local economy. And
many citizens fatalistically noted that since
the area now houses dozens of Minuteman
missiles, they would be no more of a Soviet
target than they have been for years.
Delay? The read fight lies ahead in Con-
gress-and it will no doubt surface in some
form during the lame-duck session. Rep.
Joseph Addabbo of New York, chairman of
the House Defense Appropriations Sub-
committee, has vowed to try to strike a $1.5
billion authorization for the first five MX
missiles from the 1983 defense budget. Er-
nest Hollings of South Carolina plans a simi-
lar effort in the Senate. Sen. Paul Laxalt, a
close Reagan adviser, predicts that battle
could prove as tough as any Reagan has
fought-"His persuasive powers will be
tested to the limit." To avoid an early and
embarrassing defeat on MX, the White
House could seek to delay the debate until
the new Congress convenes in January.
MELINDA BECK with JOHN J. LINDSAY and
MARY LORD in Washington and bureau reports
maelstrom of dust, gravel, heat and radi-
ation that they would destroy or throw off
course subsequent Soviet warheads. Propo-
nents claim that enough MX missiles would
survive to launch a retaliatory strike, even
though they would be pinned temporarily in
their silos by the same dust and radiation
clouds that deflected the Soviet missiles.
The only way the Soviets would escape frat-
ricide, Air Force experts say, would be to
simultaneously hit each of the 100 MX silos
with single 25-megaton warheads.
Obstacles: MIT physicist Kosta Tsipis
told NEWSWEEK he has conducted his own
studies using Pentagon data and determined
that 90 percent of the Dense Pack missiles
could be destroyed by fewer than 60 25-
megaton warheads. The Soviet warheads
could escape fratricide, he claims, if they
were equipped with readily available timing
devices that would detonate simultaneous-
ly. The Soviets could also develop missiles
that would burrow into the earth and ex-
plode after impact. Dr. Charles Townes, the