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December 20, 2016
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March 15, 2007
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PDF icon CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060042-5.pdf128.08 KB
xlcproved For Release 2007/03/16: CIA-RDP84BOO049ROO0802060042-5 Le&f . Within the next few weeks, Presi- dent Reagan will announce what sort of base he prefers for the proposed fleet of 100 MX intercontinental mis- siles. The current betting is that' he will recommend "closely spaced basing " e ? get. Scenario Dependent - Theories or ideas, the validity of which depend on scenArios or assumptions of a chain of events. . known in the Pentagon as C.S.B., and among many journalists and politi- cians as "dense pack." This system would involve placing all 100 MX mis- siles,. advanced intercontinental weapons with 10 warheads each; in one field of slightly less than 15 square' miles, with silos about 600 yards apart. But whatever system the. President recommends, the debate over MX is not likely,to end soon. For those who wish to follow the argument, or merely ponder the nuclear jargon that has grown up around it, the following lossa ma be useful : Fratricide - A phenomenon in which, it is expected, the earliest ex- plosions of enemy nuclear warheads in a closely spaced MX base will de- stroy or deflect warheads that follow, thus permitting most of the MX fleet to survive. Like most, such theories, this has never been empirically test- ed. Ca Xule -- The Air Force prefers to silos capsules because of a fear that the Soviet Union will com- plain that building new intercontinen- tal ballistic missile silos constitutes the construction of new missile launchers, which is forbidden by the second treaty on strategic arms limi- tation, SALT 2. Launcher - For reasons of diplo- matic am iguity, no clear definition of this key term has ever been agreed upon. The second arms limitation treaty, which was signed in 1979, says in Article 2 that "intercontinental ballistic missile launchers are land- based launchers of ballistic missiles.". The "First Agreed Statement" of the treaty says that this "includes all launchers which have been developed and tested for launching ICBM's." This, one nuclear theologian re- marked, is "tautological," saying lit- tle more than a launcher is a launcher. The assumption in 1979 was that silos were launchers, but this assumption is no longer convenient to nuclear hawks. R.V. - Re-entry vehicle, the cone- shaped, heat-shielded object that carries the nuclear warhead, often called the physics package, to thetar-? Full Spike - A war scenario in which oviet military planners would attack the densely packed MX field with a salvo in which at least one R.V. would be directed at each capsule for ? detonation as nearly simultaneous as possible. Cfln, r A Aff-1, ,,I-1. Dinet..m.n while the American MX's were im- mobilized in their capsules by pin- e enemy would fire perhaps 11 R.V.'s at a time, spaced to detonate far enough apart to avoid fratricide, , P pie - A scenario w ch ptogs by Cbarlea waver tant when there were plans tor mov- ing MX missiles among a large num- ber of protective shelters in a "shell game" or "race track." In a simple densely packed MX field, P.L.U. Is a moot question.. However, in the future the United St Ate* may wish to add De- ceptive Basing to the MX field by add- ing extra capsules among which the 100 missiles could be moved. In that case it will be most desireable to pre- serve location uncertainty. Launch on Warning, or Launch Under Attack - If confidence in the workability of dense pack or other de- fenses erodes, some thinkers have dis- cussed firing United States missiles before incoming enemy missiles strike the capsules. One fear, among many, about L:O.W. or L.U.A. Is that an enemy might first knock out the space satellites that carry sensors, which are designed. to give the warn- ing that Soviet missiles have been launched. Such an event is sometimes described as Warning by Loss of Warning. Dust Defense - A theoretical de- tense of a missile field in which the United States would bury some nu- clear warheads in a missile field and north of it and detonate them when sensors gave notice that enemy war- heads were incoming. The columns of dirt, dust and debris raised by these explosions might destroy or deflect the enemy R.V.'s. It is widely as- sumed, however, that Congress and the President might be reluctant to embrace a defense that involved the deliberate detonation of American thermonuclear devices on American soil. A Pentagon document recently conceded that a problem with some nuclear plans, such as dust defense, were that they maybe: Counter Intuitive - The Pentagon paper did not define counter intuitive. However, insiders say the phrase means that to ordinary folks the Idea sounds crazy. achieve simultaneous explosion of in- coming R.V.'s. One such possibility would be to slow the high re-entry speeds of R.V.'s (as much as 23,000 feet per second, or almost 10 times the speed of a rifle bullet) with para- chutes or retro rockets so that all the incoming R.V.'s landed gently on the field and could be exploded simulta- neously by remote control. Deep Penetrator, or Earth Penetra- tor - And. at would be con- ted so as to be able to plunge deep Into the earth without exploding (or being destroyed by the high energy of impact) until other penetra- tors had done the same and all could be exploded. P.L.U. - "Preservation of location uncin y. F.L.U. was very impor- Pindown - An untested but appar- ently plausible nuclear tactic in which one side would explode a timed series of nuclear warheads at very high alti- tudes above a missile field. Because e "boost stages" or rocket portions o1 missiles attempting to fly out through the pindown woud probably be destroyed by X-ray energy, the President would have to delay launch- ing United States ICBM's until the pin- down ended. Soft La down - One way for an at- c er to defeat fratricide would be to Charles Mohr