EGYPT: MUBARAK AND THE USSR (SANITIZED)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
4
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 16, 2007
Sequence Number: 
41
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 7, 1982
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4.pdf193.84 KB
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Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01002410041-4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM 7 January 1982 Egypt: Mubarak and the USSR Summary . Egyptian President I-losni Mubarak is quietly altering the tone of Cairo's relations with Moscow and has largely abandoned President Sadat's harsh anti-Soviet rhetoric. Mubarak shares Sadat's deep concern about Soviet intentions in the Middle East, however, and a dramatic improvement in relations is unlikely. Th' memorandum was prepared by of the Office 25X1 is of Near East/South Asia Analysis. It was reques ed by the National Security Council. Information as of 7 January 1982 was used in preparation of this paper. Comments and questions are 25X1 welcome and should be addressed to Director, Near East/South Asia Analysis NESA M;`82-100080 Copy l- of Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01002410041-4 Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4 Mubarak's Attitude Mubarak has avoided the vitriolic attacks on the Soviets that were common under Sadat. In recent speeches Mubarak has stressed Egypt's nonaligned status and has offered to "put the residue of the past behind" in his country's relations with the superpowers. Mubarak has also abandoned harsh polemics against the Soviet Union's Arab allies, including Libya and Syria, as part of his campaign to ease Egypt's isolation in the Arab Shortly before his death Sadat accused Soviet diplomats of interfering in Egyptian internal affairs and stimulating unrest between the country's Coptic Christian and Muslim communities. The Soviet Ambassador and several diplomats were expelled. Mubarak has dropped these allegations, freed the Egyptians implicated in the affair, and completed arrangements to reduce the Soviet presence. These allow 95 Soviet Embassy officials to work in Egypt. Soviet media, shipping, and airline officials assigned to Egypt bring the total Soviet presence to about 135. Egyptian Interest Groups and the USSR S-everal important: constituencies inside Egypt are probably encouraging Mubarak to improve the atmosphere in Soviet-Egyptian relations. Many diplomats in the Foreign Ministry have long been uneasy over Egypt's poor relations with the USSR and its close ties to the United States, an imbalance they believe damages Cairo's credentials as a nonaligned state. Some of these officials began their careers under President Nasir and probably recall with pride Egypt's status during that era as a major player in Third World politics. Others simply believe that Sadat's pro-US policies have isolated Egypt from much of the Third World and unnecessarily involved Egypt in Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4 f 25X1 25X1 It I I 25X1 I Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4 superpower tensios, Foreign Affairs Key officials For have Ion Butrus Ghal.i and like Minister of St' Moscow. believed Mubarak's S Late for Sadat went too far in a writer n ntUsama There are agonizing welcome improvedrobably also some to Soviet pea ties with military officers w ord pons and the Soviets a of-. would arms inventor spare parts. ary 90s y is composed of SovietA large percentage aof access and it is badly equipment Egte ad The ded ong delivery schedulesfor need of replacement in the incentive or Some US equipment or r arsenal. Egypt to maintain its Soviet-Origin ePair. oviet-Originde an Finally, many t with y Egyptian opposition leaders the Soviets. All three le a eaders balanced cooler relations favor improved awith the United State Parties. Unionist approach pps to the Soviets. States and attends Ping, which has The National Pro a more Sovie-sponsored ties to the ille gressive Khalid Muhyi- tal-d' conferences gal Communist Socialist xn has visited in the USSR Party. So.lial tLabor Party has P~oscow often. The and NPUG leader Y Organization, aties with the Afro-Asian larger sponsored. by Nasir in the 1960sSo IVorld oPeOples et Third These o ganization Egyptian foreign parties h country eign Policy, but eve no direct 's intellectual elite they influence influence on expressed by Foreign Ministe. They share thehsamexs ntiof the Egypt`s nonaligned credentials officials sentiments Outlook who want to refurbish A dramatis change under Ndrarak, ge in E9YPtian- nder Like Sadat Soviet ties Policies in the Middle ' he is deeply not likely years training as an East. Mubarakply suspicious of seveowI'S and appears- Air Force Pilot in Sov' , spent e=~era_ Communism and come away Russian with-a iet militar s stro Y academies in general. aversion for Nonetheless, continued Egyptian-Soviet relations quiet changes Withdrawal from S. are likely in the tone of Sinai i amba Aft ssador n April er the Israeli to Moscow to fill the Mub posair tak a since Janaur 1980 y choose to send ionmthatt has s been new een vacant Mubarak ma hold y a llso an interna give more attention zonal conference to the Soviet on the Middl prOP?sal e Mubarak' Easy- robtem. s advi sers have Ic)nr the Peace process. counseled S?me o involving the Soviets in Approved For Release 2007/07/16 : CIA-RDP84BOO049RO01 25X1 25X1 25X1 I 125X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 I Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01002410041-4 Egyptian officials are increasingly pessimistic prospects for a breakthrough in the drawn outpin I sr tl autonomy negotiations. Even before Sadat s deathEypt wseli beginning to consider other negotiating , rcpt ces autonomy talks after the Israeli withdawal formats s April andhadhe expressed vague interest in the Soviet proposal. The Egyptis almost certainly would prefer an alternative to the Soviet plan such as Saudi Crown Prince Fahd's ei ht- oint u PCa seems willing to listen to Soviet suggcs o prOpOSa?- but Cairo Approved For Release 2007/07/16: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01002410041-4