EGYPT: MUBARAK AND THE USSR (SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001002410041-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 16, 2007
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: January 7, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM
7 January 1982
Egypt: Mubarak and the USSR
Summary
. Egyptian President I-losni Mubarak is quietly altering the
tone of Cairo's relations with Moscow and has largely
abandoned President Sadat's harsh anti-Soviet rhetoric.
Mubarak shares Sadat's deep concern about Soviet intentions
in the Middle East, however, and a dramatic improvement in
relations is unlikely.
Th' memorandum was prepared by of the Office 25X1
is
of Near East/South Asia Analysis. It was reques ed by the
National Security Council. Information as of 7 January 1982 was
used in preparation of this paper. Comments and questions are 25X1
welcome and should be addressed to Director, Near East/South Asia
Analysis
NESA M;`82-100080 Copy l- of
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Mubarak's Attitude
Mubarak has avoided the vitriolic attacks on the Soviets
that were common under Sadat. In recent speeches Mubarak has
stressed Egypt's nonaligned status and has offered to "put the
residue of the past behind" in his country's relations with the
superpowers. Mubarak has also abandoned harsh polemics against
the Soviet Union's Arab allies, including Libya and Syria, as
part of his campaign to ease Egypt's isolation in the Arab
Shortly before his death Sadat accused Soviet diplomats of
interfering in Egyptian internal affairs and stimulating unrest
between the country's Coptic Christian and Muslim communities.
The Soviet Ambassador and several diplomats were expelled.
Mubarak has dropped these allegations, freed the Egyptians
implicated in the affair, and completed arrangements to reduce
the Soviet presence. These allow 95 Soviet Embassy officials to
work in Egypt. Soviet media, shipping, and airline officials
assigned to Egypt bring the total Soviet presence to about 135.
Egyptian Interest Groups and the USSR
S-everal important: constituencies inside Egypt are probably
encouraging Mubarak to improve the atmosphere in Soviet-Egyptian relations. Many diplomats in the Foreign Ministry have long been
uneasy over Egypt's poor relations with the USSR and its close
ties to the United States, an imbalance they believe damages
Cairo's credentials as a nonaligned state.
Some of these officials began their careers under President
Nasir and probably recall with pride Egypt's status during that
era as a major player in Third World politics. Others simply
believe that Sadat's pro-US policies have isolated Egypt from
much of the Third World and unnecessarily involved Egypt in
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superpower tensios,
Foreign Affairs Key officials
For have Ion Butrus Ghal.i and like Minister of St'
Moscow. believed Mubarak's S Late for
Sadat went too far in a writer
n ntUsama
There are agonizing
welcome improvedrobably also some
to Soviet pea ties with
military officers w ord pons and the Soviets a of-. would
arms inventor spare parts.
ary 90s y is composed of SovietA large percentage aof access
and it is badly equipment Egte
ad
The ded ong delivery schedulesfor need of replacement in the
incentive or Some US equipment or r
arsenal. Egypt to maintain its Soviet-Origin ePair.
oviet-Originde an
Finally, many
t with y Egyptian opposition leaders
the Soviets. All three le a eaders
balanced cooler relations favor improved
awith the United State Parties.
Unionist approach pps to the Soviets. States and
attends Ping, which has The National Pro a more
Sovie-sponsored ties to the ille gressive
Khalid Muhyi- tal-d' conferences gal Communist
Socialist xn has visited in the USSR Party.
So.lial tLabor Party has P~oscow often. The and NPUG leader
Y Organization, aties with the Afro-Asian larger
sponsored. by Nasir in the 1960sSo IVorld oPeOples
et Third
These o ganization
Egyptian foreign parties h
country eign Policy, but eve no direct
's intellectual
elite they influence influence on
expressed by Foreign Ministe. They share thehsamexs ntiof the
Egypt`s nonaligned credentials officials sentiments
Outlook who want to refurbish
A dramatis change
under Ndrarak, ge in E9YPtian-
nder Like Sadat Soviet ties
Policies
in the Middle ' he is deeply not likely
years training as an East. Mubarakply suspicious of seveowI'S
and appears- Air Force Pilot in Sov' , spent e=~era_
Communism and come away Russian with-a iet militar
s stro Y academies
in general. aversion for
Nonetheless, continued
Egyptian-Soviet relations quiet changes
Withdrawal from S. are likely in the tone of
Sinai i
amba
Aft
ssador
n April
er the Israeli
to Moscow to fill the Mub posair tak a
since Janaur 1980 y choose to send
ionmthatt has s been new
een vacant
Mubarak ma
hold y a llso
an interna give more attention
zonal conference to the Soviet
on the Middl
prOP?sal
e
Mubarak' Easy- robtem.
s advi
sers have Ic)nr
the Peace process. counseled S?me o
involving the Soviets in
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Egyptian officials are increasingly pessimistic prospects for a breakthrough in the drawn outpin I sr tl
autonomy negotiations. Even before Sadat s deathEypt wseli
beginning to consider other negotiating , rcpt ces
autonomy talks after the Israeli withdawal formats s April andhadhe
expressed vague interest in the Soviet proposal. The Egyptis
almost certainly would prefer an alternative to the Soviet plan
such as Saudi Crown Prince Fahd's ei ht- oint u PCa
seems willing to listen to Soviet suggcs o prOpOSa?- but Cairo
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