CCCT HIGH TECHNOLOGY STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001102620002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 9, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

The attached memo describes the Cabinet Council
high technology study. It was prepared in early
November and is now being revamped in preparation for
a meeting next week of the Cabinet Council on
Commerce and Trade.
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CCCT High Technology Study
c,_P?;, cc: Outline of the background, objectives, scope, and
c,i,~,nration of the proposed CCCT high technology study.
'?.S. }:ich technology inc?ust-ries contrihutc significantly and
c?. s ~ ,~ ;, ly to j. S. e; ?no. t rerforrr, once and to growth in
coonc.;'I?. It is conservatively
esti:..: Lr.. t'. .t ~~ porcc It ci the C'o: estiC production Of high
technolocv,' industries was exported in 1.go^0. Moreover, high
technology industries provide critical support to our national
defense.
}9any foreign governments recognize he importance of high technology
.ndustries to their plans for econo;.iic growth and to their. natic^ ~?
sc?cur: -1 . ;,,:cordingly, tney have s->uaht to foster development o.'
such industries by interferring witn the operation of normal market
forces to ensure special treatment of high technology industries
through preferential tax policies and intervention in capital
markets. Foreign trade any' investment policies have also been
adjusted to accommodate these efforts.
There is growing concern that "'.S. high technology industries will
be at an unfair competitive disadvantage as a result of these
policies and that they may suffer substantial injury and loss of
international markets over the next several years.
To better understand the competitivee position an" probable future
.ourse of these industries we propose that the CCC'r direct a study
on the outlook for U.S. high technology industries in the world
conomy.
"'he following outlines the objcctiscope, and organization of
the study.
'c determine the + .
mainta"ri a leading position in the face or increasingly strong
foreign competition.
Ii. OBJECTIVES
"o identifv the probable economic and national security consequence
from ar.v projected loss of pree:cin'~rice in the high technology .area.
TO walla"" possible U. S. r.C~'.'er nrnont policy responses i f the study
resui t: in conclusions that c,,nc 0: more high technology Indus-,r ies
:aces a significant threat.
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III. SCOPE
The study will be an assessment of the ability of key U.S. high
technology industries to maintain competitive viability in the
current and projected int^rnational economic environment. The core
of the analysis i 1 l he a comparison of the technological. state of
th^ a:t .>_twCCn U.S. industries and their foreign competitors, an
asst ss ent of the importance of high technology industries to
overall U.S. economic performance, and the effect of macroeconomic
and technological factors and government policies on the future
competitive viability of the U.S. high technology industries.
The industries studied would be chosen on the basis of their
significance to the economy as a whole, the advanced state of the
tech.nolog' '^;volved, ,nd their importance to our national security.
These industries will include semiconductors, aerospace, computers,
telecommunications, industrial control systems, robotics, and other
appropriate industry segments.
The technological origin of the industries will be studied, with
particular emphasis on the role of government intervention. The
government/high technology sector relationship will be analyzed both
generally and as it applies to specific industries in Japan,
Germany, the United States and other key countries. Factors to he
studied will. include government financial support, including R&D
funding, the effect of regulation and tax policies on performance,
the influence of antitrust policies, and the government role in
regulating market access. The study will also compare formal and
informal trade barriers, implementation of the MTN codes, the effect
of foreign subsidization on third market penetration, and U.S.
export disincentives.
The study will also cover industry structures and trends, including
capital formation, costs, strengths, and profitability, the degree
of integration and concentration of industries, and R&D programs.
The U.S. labor situation in high technology industries will be
compared to those abroad. The study will look at future influence
,.,f key skills in the labor force, labor force motivation,
comparative productivity, and management techniques.
The study will draw conclusions on the consequences to our national
security and to the U.S. economy as a whole from any projected loss
of cor' etitiveness in key high technology areas. The extent to
which '.s. militar,: procurement may become dependent upon foreign
scurc?'s for critical su; ic?.s and technology is an area of
particular concern. Surge capacity of U.S. industry, industrial
r.ohilization, and diversion of technology will also be covered.
If t`.e stud de terrines that orie or more segments of our high
ir'Ct' l '^t l: Ia'~ al i(:nl lic,-~nt threati possible U.S. pol icy
will he evaluates.
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I V. STUD' OI:CANI zATIO:'
The study will be organized to ensure quality results, speed of
como;?etion, and ease of gaining acceptance by the CCCT. These
criteria can best be: met by assembling a small working group (3 to 5
persons) of the highest caliber experts on high technology
industries and the economy chosen from amor;_I the various agencies
wi Lh n the U.S. Govern:,ent. The staff of the working group will be
from their a;cncies to work ful.1 time on the project.
The working group will take its mandate from the CCCT and report
directly to it. Central staff direction will be provided by a
single person designated by the CCCT, with proven expertise in the
area and the ability to devote almost full time to the project.
hg::ncies with interest and responsibility in the areas covered by
the study will be asked to participate by making available to the
working group, as needed, their data, resources, analyses of issues
and full cooperation. These agencies will be requested to appoint a
cont,ict person who can coordinate assistance from the agency to the
working group. The staff director may convene interagency groups to
provide guidance on policy issues affecting the study. The report
will be circulated in draft form to each member of the CCCT for
comment prior to its formal presentation to the CCCT. The study
will be completed within 120 days after its coiim ncement.
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