ESTIMATED SOVIET DEFENSE SPENDING IN RUBLES: RECENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001102670014-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: December 1, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP84B00049R001102670014-5
Estimated Soviet Defense Spending in Rubles:
Recent Trends and Prospects
Certird Intelligence Age"
P attonal F-ign A.iac&,mevlr Center
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Key Judgments
Total Defense Spending
Our estimates of the ruble cost of Soviet defense activities during the
period 1970-76 indicate that:
? Soviet spending for defense, defined to correspond to US budgetary .
accounts and measured in constant 1970 prices, has been growing at
an average annual rate of 4 to 5 percent, from 40-45 billion rubles in
1970 to 52-57 billion rubles in 1976.
? Defined more broadly, as Soviet practice might require, defense
spending grew from 45-50 billion rubles in 1970 to 57-62 billion
rubles in 1976.
Composition and Allocation
Ruble estimates provide insight into the resource composition of the
Soviet defense effort and the trends in resource allocations among the
branches of service. Analysis based on the narrower definition of defense-for
which the estimates are more detailed and precise,--indicates that-.
r 'L, .- e_.... .... ..., dL-ti n"I ciz re-
mained fairly constant during the 19"r0-76 period. About half of total
spending went for investment, about 30 percent for operating
expenditures, and about 20 percent for RDT&E.
? The Soviet Navy and Cround Forces received roughly constant
shares of investment and operating spending during the period.
Spending for the Strategic Rocket Forces and the Air Forces
displayed cyclical behavior, and the Air Defense Forces' share of
investment and operating expenditures decreased by about one.-fifth.
 Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01 I
Economic Impact.
The defense effort has had a substantial impact on the Soviet onomy:
? During the. 1970-76 period, defense spending consumed an almost
constant share of Soviet GNP-1 I to I2 percent or 12 to 13.percept,
depending on how defe,ise spending is defined.
? Defense production consumed about one-third of the final. product
of machine-building and metalworking, the branch of industry than
produces investment goods as well as military hardware.
Prospects
?. .
The average annual growth rate of 4 to 5 percent implied y the e
estimates exceeds the average annual rate at which we expect t Sovi t
economy to grow in the years ahead. Econometric projections are t t Sovjgt
GNP will grow at about 4 percent a year through 1980, but that gr wth will
fall off 'thereafter-probably to about 3 to 3.5 percent. Yet, the ro;ected.
economic slowdown notwithstanding, Soviet spending for defense i likely
continue to grow at roughly its current rate into the 1980s, whethe or no
SALT II agreement is concluded.
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