STATE OF ABM IIM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001102780002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 12, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 21, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01102780002-6
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 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R001102780002-6 3/82
National Intelligence Council
SP - 147/82
21 September 1982
Copy____
2
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director for Central Intelligence
THROUGH: Chairman, National Intelligence Council/.
FROM: National Intelligence Officer for Strategic Programs
SUBJECT: Status of ABM IIM
1. The NSC Staff has indicated its concern that the ABM IIM be delivered
to them as soon as possible, for their use in the ABM Treaty review and in the
decisions regarding MX. F-~
2. On Friday, September 17, I submitted to the NFIB Representatives a
revised version of our summary volume, based on the initial coordination
meetings. (Copies were also provided to the Acting DCI, Acting Chairman NIC,
and the DDI.) We will begin coordination meetings on this version on Tuesday,
September 21. I have a number of problem areas I hope to fix during this
week. A short key judgments based on the summary is being drafted. I am
confident that we will be ready for an NFIB meeting on this volume by
October 6; I will try to be ready sooner. It will be very difficult to be
ready for the NFIB meeting of 28 September. u
3. I would like to point out that following completion of the ABM IIM a
more narrowly focused estimate may be required, addressing Soviet and foreign
reactions to a US decision to defend MX with ABMs. The estimate could be a
SNIE or a less formal interagency paper. Like the SNIE on reactions to US
strategic force modernization done last year, the estimate would be based on
the specific planning proposals under consideration by the Administration,
such as defenses within the ABM Treaty limits and defense options requiring
revision of the Treaty. We treat this issue only in general terms in the ABM
IIM, as is appropriate for its scope. You might want to sound out Clark,
Shultz, and Weinberger on whether they foresee such an estimate as necessary
for the Administration's deliberations on the US ABM deployment issue. If
they do, we would need to have the requirement soonest including the details
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 WOFI EwrIAL
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01102780002-6
SP - 147/82
SUBJECT: Status of ABM JIM
4. I am not anxious to do such an estimate, because of my heavy workload
and the workload on CIA production offices, but if it is of major importance
to key consumers, we will have to find away to produce it. I should note,
however, that preparing such an estimate would likely interfere with
preparation of NIE 11-3/8-82 on Soviet strategic forces and possibly with the
NIE on monitoring limitations on Soviet strate
gic forces, requiring that we
slip their scheduled completion dates.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01102780002-6
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01102780002-6
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01102780002-6