ANALYSES OF CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001203070014-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 7, 2007
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: August 27, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
7d2
~~` ~'~' -
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NOTE FOR THE DIRECTOR
Attached for your signature is a
memorandum to Richard Allen responding
to his request for analyses on China.
We have already begun the effort to
define Taiwan's defense needs and will
soon begin the analyses of the internal
situation in China.
We expect these studies do be complete
cc: C/NIC
D/NFAC
Distribution
1 each - DCI
DDCI
ER
NIO/EA Crhono
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Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
 CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R001203070014-9
NCS REVIEW COMPLETED
2 7 AUG 1981
rhEMORANDUM FOR: Richard V. Allen
Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
SUBJECT : Analyses of China
1. I am in receipt of your memorandum of
?4 August on the above subject. Drafting is already
underway on an analytical effort to define Taiwan's
Oefense needs in the 1980s, with reference also to
the political impact of a range of decision on
E."th Taiwan and the Mainland.
2. We expect to undertake an additional
analyses of the internal situation in China,
f,articularly with respect to Deng's vulnerability
-n the US connection. This study would include a
-'iscussion of the role of the Chinese military in
Mainland politics.
3. We expect to complete both studies by
November 1981.
William J. Casey
Distribution
1 each - Addressee
DCI
DDCI
ER
NIO/EA Chrono
NIO/EA File
NFAC Registry
._ Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049R001203070014-9
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Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
 i "1 l3\I -11 Il I\I I I Il I
Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 24, 1981
NCS REVIEW
iCOMPLETED FOR THE HONORABLE WILLIAM J. CASEY
Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Analyses of China (U)
4902
MAC
DOD has already requested a Community analytical effort
to define Taiwan's defense needs in the 1980s. This
would include an analysis of the threat to Taiwan and
the various ways to deal with this threat. I understand
that this effort is to be concluded by 1 November 1981.
We would also welcome any departmental studies of this
important subject. (C)
In addition to the paper requested by DOD, I would like
to ask for an additional paper to prepare us for critical
decisions to be made by the end of this year. (U)
It would be useful to have an updated analysis of Deng's
vulnerability on the U.S. connection. How stable is
Deng's leadership, what is the nature and strength of
threats to him, and how would these affect the reaction
to various levels of arms sales to Taiwan? (C)
It would also be useful to include in this study an
analysis of the role of the Chinese military, including
its influence on Deng and his policies. (C)
I would also like to have this second paper by 1 November 1981. (U)
Richard V. Allen
Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
cc: Secretary Haig
Secretary Weinberger
CONFIDENTIAL
Review Aug-18, 1987
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
 Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9
Approved For Release 2007/09/07: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO1203070014-9