FY 1982 INDOCHINESE REFUGEE ADMISSIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001203090016-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: September 1, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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COPIES TO:
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S/S-S
TN.A
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RF
RF:HEB
SUBJECT:
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
SS
September 1, 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. RICHARD V. ALLEN
THE WHITE HOUSE
FY 1982 Indochinese Refugee Admissions
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f);4, L.
C
The FY 1982 refugee admissions consult.t ions with the
Senate and House Judiciary Committees will be tavin; place in
late September. An early Presidential decision is needed on
the admissions levels at which we will consult, since the law
requires our best efforts to forward the consultation document
to the Congress two weeks before the hearings. The only really
contentious issue this year is the admissions figure for
Indochinese refugaes. -he Department of State believes that
foreign policy and humanitarian imperatives in Southeast Asia
require a minimum admissions authorityy of 120,000, while HHS
contends that domestic costs and absorbability for refugee
resettlement dictate a maximum of 96,000. %e believe that a
cost reduction strategy rather than a lowerino of the admission
numbers is appropriate.
..he essential foreign policy considerations on which the
120,000 minimum level is based are outlined in the attached
paper prepared by the Bureau of East Asian Affairs and the
Bureau for Refugee Programs.
f
L. Paul Bremer III C/_1
- Executive Secretary mo
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Attachments:
1. FY 1982 Admissions Authority for
Asian Refugees
2. Admissions Authority Options for
FY 1982
State Dept. review completed
Drafted by: S/R:d e1ey:paw
8/27I1H
Cleared by: EA:JHfioldridae
VD ._7Upnrrcl l ul
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FY 1982 Admissions Authority for Asian Refugees
Asian refugee admissions levels support the important
,foreign policy goals of:
-- avoiding the mass exodus crisis of the summer of 1979,
and
-- maintaining the principle of first asylum in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
.The Department of State has concluded that the minimum FY
1982 admissions level required for a reasonable assurance of
obtaining these goals is 120,000. This level considers that:
-- The FY 1981 admissions ceiling is 168,000, and the
budget level for FY 1982 is 144,000. ASEPLN countries are very
familiar with these figures. The figures are also known to
potential. refugees. A precipituously reduced admissions
ceiling could signal to them a lurch in U.S. refugee policy and5
could provoke another large, dangerous, and unnecessary refugee
exodus.
-- While actual FY 1981 admissions will be about 125,000,
it has been ASEANT consciousness of the'much higher admissions
ceiling, to which the U.S. could have resorted if needed, that
has maintained first asylum through FY 1981 despite ASEAN
concerns over the crescendoing refugee debate in the U.S.
-- Rate of reduction of refugee camp population is a key
ingredient in first asylum. OMB notes that a 13% reduction '
maintained first asylum in 1981; given our earlier assumptions
for voluntary repatriation, and other third country
resettlement programs, OMB has calculated that a 13% camp
population reduction in FY 1982 would require a maximum of only
108,000 admissions. We cannot agree with the assumptions
underlining OMB's calculations. It should be noted in
particular that both State's and OMB's assumptions included a
projected 13,000 for voluntary repatriation in FY 1982. Given
the absence of progress to date, very little voluntary
repatriation may actually occur. If little or none occurs, our
proposed 120,000 ceiling would reduce camp populations by no
more than 7% -- one-half the rate required to maintain first
asylum in FY 1981 and only marginally capable of sustaining it
in FY 1982. The risk in dropping the level further to 108,000
is clearly too great to be adopted.
-- The 120,000 level, marginal and prudently risky as it
is, is still a ceiling and not a quota. As we have done in FY
1981, State will continue a highly disciplined admissions
program and utilize the admissions authority in FY 1982 only to
the extent we judge necessary to maintain ASEAN first asylum,
cohesion, and support.
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With respect to the HHS proposed level of 96,000, it must
be noted that this number is derived purely from domestic
budgetary and absorbability concerns. The FY 1982 HHS budget
would have allowed 144,000 Asian admissions -- at a projected
welfare dependency rate of 49%. Present experience of nearly
70% dependency leads to the 96,000 ceiling.
Accepting the HHS level places our admission levels and
important foreign policy objectives hostage to our inability to
deal with unexpectedly high resettlement costs.
A preferable way to deal with the problem would be to flag
the potential funding gap for the President -- and subsequently
for the Congress -- but note concurrently the need to implement
a strategy for reducing the dependency rate. A cost reduction
strategy is now being developed with HHS. Additionally, we
have already agreed to review admission levels with HHS and
Justice during the course of FY 82, and can thereby propose
responsible adjustments to these levels which may be required
by joint domestic and foreign policy considerations.
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EXPLA::A=DRY .4021 i;S
A: These figures represent the actual camp population as
of October 1, 1930 (Col. A), an3 our best estimate of
what the camp population will be on 10/01/31 (Cols. B
D).
B: While total land and boat arrivals in FY-81 are
expected to amount to 127,000, we expect that a larger
Orderly Departure Program, plus slight aujustnents in
the arrival rates of other groups of refugees, will
raise FY 1932 arrivals to 139,000. This estimate
includes 72,000 boat people from Vietnam (whic:i is
reflected in the SRAP minimum estinate), another 3,030
Vietnamese land refugees, 32,000 lowland Lao arrivals,
8,000 highland Lao (Hmong) refugees, and 12,000 new
Khmer arrivals. In addition, our estimate includes
12,000 persons who gill leave Vietnam through the OD?.
C. These figures represent actual FY-31 resettlements to
tne U.S., plus our resettlement rates under the t,:rae
options under review.
D. Third country resettlements, despite 'J_4:-ICR initiatives
to resettle refugees in Suriname and Belize, will
decrease in FY 1932. Unf'Drtunately, the amount of the
decrease is-directly related to reductions in the rata
of resettlement to the U.S.; i.e. the more we cut our
rate, the more France, Canada, and Australia will
reduce their programs. The figures in columns 3 - D
reflect this situation.
E. While tnere 'has
repatriation prc
about 13,000 ref
Kampuchea or Lac
Optimistic View;
increase to the
ca-m_) populations
not been a significant voluntary
gram in FY 1981, we are hopeful tnat
ugees will voluntarily repatriate to
s in FY 1982. However, this is en
snouli voluntary repatriation not
levels expected, the end of FY 1932
will be that mucu higher.
F. The end of year 1932 refugee population based on t',-,e
foregoing assumptions.
G. The actual difference for FY 1931, and the projected
difference for FY 1982, between the beginning of year
and end-of-year refugee populations.
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H. The percentage reduction in the refugee population
during the fiscal year. This calculation includes the
effects of voluntary repatriation programs. Even so,
the only U.S. admissions option that approaches the FY
1981 offtake rate is Option 1. Even here, the rate of
population reduction in FY 1982 is less tnan that
experienced in FY 1981. In fact, Option 3 woul-i only
hold the refugee population constant in FY 1932.
I. If there is not a significant voluntary repatriation
program in FY 1982, the rate of population decrease
will be much lower than that experienced in FY 1981.
In fact, Option C would actually lead to a 5 percent
net increase in the refugee camp population. This
would almost certainly trigger severe actions by the
first asylum nations.
Document No. 0770E
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FOR FY 82 I srL:tt ri o
FACtORS
NODE
FY 81 m mm
OPTION 1
OPrLON 2
TJT Il)
cool.
120,000 resettlements
108,000 resettlements
to the U.S.
to the U.S.
,; Begin Refugee Populations
A
346,000
299,000
299,000
Total Arrivals (inclu)es ODP)
11
127,000
139,000
139,000
To U.S.
C
125,000
120,000
108,000
To Third Countries
T)
49,000
40,000
35,000
To Voluntary Repatriation
E
0
13,000
13,000
Net Refugee Population end of FY
F
2')9,000
265,000
282,000
Net Refix1ee Population Reduction
G
47,000
34,000
17,000
t Reduction in Population with
II
13%
1L%
6%
voluntary repatriation
i
$ Reduction in Population without
1
136
7'6
2`k
voluntary repatriation
r" lk,c'm(,nt No. 07701:
OPTION 3
Cal. D
96,000 resettlements
to the U.S.
299,000
139,000
96,000
30,000
13,000
29'), 000
0
0
i
5% increase in
camp pepulatinns
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