POLAND: UPDATING MEASURES - - THE FRG

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
C
Document Page Count: 
7
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
October 19, 2006
Sequence Number: 
9
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 5, 1982
Content Type: 
CABLE
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1.pdf374.26 KB
Body: 
C 09/28/ C. FRP: ? , , , ,6, ,8 ACTION: NONE _ INFO: FILE,_RF? CI/FL, CMASS-E. ORES/ARO, EPS/EG-2, EUR-3. D/FBTS-2, TAD/CAS-3. MASS/EC. NICAG/MFA. NICAG/NWE, NI0/PE. NIO/USSR. NIO/WE,_QALAIME/LA?.OALAIMIL..D/OCR-1. ODPH+H, ODPN-N, ODP1j-U,_.OER-3,_OGI/EC/IF. OGI/EC/IT? OGI/IIPI. OGI/R/AT, OIA/ERRS. OIA/LFMEA. QNESA/MILe_OOE/EE/R?_pOE/EEEG-3#_nOE/EEPO-3. OOE/EI/P, OOE/GB. DOE/WE. OPA/II. OSA/CS/CA. QSA/CS/CF. OSA/CS/EN, OSA/CS/EP. OSA/CS/X. c1RA/EA/G.'OSA/PA, OSA/PA/F? OSA/PA/S, OSA/SE. 0 ? OSA/$E/I,.O$RITEe.OSW91TTCe.P$ANFAC,Et,PO1,E-E,.PPB/LCEV. R. SE43e.. 0 ? 82 7755040 SCO PAGE 001. .._.__._......-..-.TORS 05?145Z_JAN_@2 t 00 RUEAIIB ZNY CCCCC ZOC STATE ZZH UTS5748 00 RUEHC DE RUFHOL #0153/01 0051711 ZNY CCCCC ZZH 0 051706Z JAN 82 FM AMEMBASSY BONN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE-WASHDG'IMMEDIATE 2964 INFO RUFHUU/NATO COLLECTIVE RUMJPG/AMEMBASSY BEIJINr. 0584 RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3809 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO-6448 RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 6720 ST C 0 N F I D E N T I A 1 BONN 00153 COMBINED SECTION EXDIS E.0..12065: RDS-3 01-05-2001 (WOESSNFR. WILLIAM M.) OR-M TAGS: PL. GE SUBJECT: POLAND: UPDATING MEASURES THE FRG i REFS: (A) BONN 61 (NOTAL). t8) 81 BONN 25319 (NOTAL) (C) 81 BONN 25338 (NOTAL) (D) BONN 60 (NOTAI) (E) STATE 218 ? 1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT). 2. SUMMARY !-NO. CONC1r1J$TONS 0 State Dept. review completed Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R(~)130319 V a a 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S ? Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 410 0 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 0 STATE 0 82 7755040 SCO PAGE 002 NC 7755040 - ?-??---.TOR: 05Z1452.JAN_~' .. .._. SINCE OUR LAST. APPRAISALS (REFTELS) AT THE END OF DECEMBER FRG ATTITUDES . TOWARD THE POLISH CRISIS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AND SHIFTrI) ONLY_SLIGHTLY TOWARD POSITIONS MORE FAVORABLE TO.OURS.._ FOREIGN MINISTER GFNSCHER HAS, FOR EXAMPLE. PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE SOVIET RESPONSI- BILITY FOR WHAT HAPPENS. IN POLAND AND HAS EMPHASIZED THE COMMONALITY-OF WESTERN AND U.S. OBJECTIVES. AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRG HAS PURSUED AN.ACTIVE POLICY (THE ._ RAKOWSKI VISIT. CHANCELLOR SCHMIDT'S LETTERS TO BREZHNFV AND JARUZELSKT._AND EC CONSENSUS-BUILDING) WHICH IT CAN PORTRAY AS CONSTRIJCTTVF AND-POSITIVE AND WHICH IT TENDS- TO USE AS A BOLSTER FOR CONTINUING TO ESCHEW A.POLICY f1F SANCTIONS. PUBLIC AND MEDIA CONTROVERSY OVER THE SANCTIONS ISSUE AND THE FRG ROLE VIS-A-VIS THE U.S. CONTINUES. BUT THE SENSF OF CAUTION STILL PREVAILS.. FOREIGN MINISTER GENSCHER HAS GONE PUBLIC WITH HIS CALI ' FOR "SIGNALS".FROM THE POLISH REGIME IN RESPONSE TO HIS "THREE EXPECTATIONS": -- RELEASE OF THE INTERNEES._TERMINATION OF.-MARTIAL LAW! AND RESUMPTION: OF DIALOGUE WITH THE CHURCH AND SOLIDARITY. THESE "EXPECTATIONS" ARF ROOTED IN THE BUNDESTAG RESOLII- TION OF DECEMBER-JO. WHICH FRG OFFICIALS ARE CITING AS THE BASIS OF POLICY. 3. WE DOUBT THAT-BONN WILL SOON ALTER ITS POLICY SIGNIFICANTLY. BUT IT_MSY COME UNDER PRESSURE TO DO SO IF THE POLISH REGIME FAILS TO OBLIGE WITH THE DESIRED SIGNALS. OUR APPROACH-FOR NOO SHOULD (AS OUTLINED IN REFS A AND B ) OF TO TNSIST,THAT THE-FRG NOT CONTRAVENF OR CONTRADICT OUR BROADER EFFORTS AT COMPELLING THE POLISH REGIME TO HOLD TO ITS PROMISES. WE COULD ALSO STRESS THE COMPLEMENTARTTY OF-OUR STICK AND BONN'S CARROT APPROACH AND THF_NFED,FOR CLOSE COORDINATION IF EITHER IS TO BE EFFFCTIVE. FINALLY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE JANUARY 4 EC MINISTERIAL IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT-BONN WILL ENCOUNTER UNBEARABLE CRITICISM FROM ITS EC #1LIES, WE SHOULD TRY TO CAPI- TALIZE ON ANY OPPORTUNITIES THAT MIGHT ARISE TO.BUILD SUPPORT FOR TOUGHFR POSITIONS-AMONG BONN'S EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN HOPES THEY CAN BRING THE GERMANS ALONG. END SUMMARY. 10 9 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 0 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 82 7755040 SCO PAGE 003 .... - .T4Rt_052145Z-JAN 82 NC 7755040 Alp 4. PUBLIC POSTURE - -------------- AS NOTED REFTELS, THE OFFICIAL FRG PUBLIC e05TURE ON POLAND HAS BEEN ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DECLARATORY TN NATURE. BASED ON THE EVIDENT ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER t MEASURES WOULD BE COUNTFRPRODUCTIVE WITHIN-POLAND AND AT THE SAME TIME HARMFm. TO FRG POLITICAL AND FCONOMIC_, INTERESTS. IN RECENT DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME OFFICIAL MOVEMENT AWAY FROM GOVFRNMENT PRESS SPOKESMAN BECKER'S DECEMBER 30 STATEMENT (THAT THE FRG "DOES NOT SHARE THE VIEW" THAT THE USSR INSTIGATED MARTIAL LAW IN POLAND); IN BRUSSELS ON JANUARY 4, FOREIGN MINISTER GENSCHER DECLARED THAT "THE-SOVIET UNION BEARS A RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FVENTS IN POLAND." C NEWSPAPERS BELONGING TO_THE CONSERVATIVE SPRINGER CHAIN (DIE WELT, WELT AM SOWNTAG, STLD, ETC.), AS WELL AS THE c INDEPENDENT, PRESTIGIOUS FRANKFURTER ALLGEMFINE 2EITUNr? O HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY rRITICAL OF WHAT THEY PERCEIVE TO BE AN EXCESSIVELY CAUTIOUS IF NOT_COMPLIANT ATTITUDF ON THE PART OF.THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT. THE ELECTRONIC T PARTIES NMEN C _ MEDIA AND NEWSPAPERS CLOSE TO THE GOVER HAVE FOLLOWED THE LINE ESPOUSED BY THE SPD/FDP COALITION. 6. CRITICISM OF THE U.S. DECISIONS REGARDING SANCTIONS AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION AND POLAND IS USUALLY COUPLED WITH REFERENCES TO "A MORAL-DOUBLE STANDARD" BEING APPLIED BY THE U.S. IN DEALING WITH VIOLATIONS OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE SOVIET UNION AND POLAND, ON THE ONE HAND. AND WITH TURKEY. CHILE. - SOUTH AFRICA, CENTRAL AMERICA, ON THE OTHER. MEDIA CRITICAL OF THE U.S. POSITION ALSO SUPPORT THE FRG GOVERNMFNT'S ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESENT POLISH SITUATION AS A PURELY POLISH AFFAIR (THE "LAST CONFIDENTIAL I 4 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 c Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 c I CONFIDENTIAL STATE ? NC 7755040 .._:TQRt.45Z195Z.JAN.82 .._... i ?????????-?.?-?-?????-??????????.???????????????.??-?????-??-?-?--?-???????rd POLISH CARD" BEING PLAYED OUT TO AVERT.SOVIET INTER- VENTION), THAT JARUZELS91 IS A POLISH PATRIOT COMMITTED TO THE CONTINUATION OF-THE REFORM AND RENEWAL PROCESS. AND THAT HE NEEDS ALL THE HELP HE CAN GET IF HE IS TO SUCCEED. ? 7. OTHERS (E.G. 'SPIEGFL" PUBLISHER_RUDOLF..AUGSTEIN'S EDITORIAL IN THE JANUARY-4 ISSUE OF THAT MAGAZINE) POINT TO ROOSEVELT AS BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR "HANDING OVER POLAND" TO THE SOVTETS AT YALTAI-THEY MAINTAIN THAT A ROLL-BACK POLICY NOW WOULD BE TANTAMOUNT TO COURTING OPEN CONFLICT._ THE "MALTA" ARGUMENT IS LIKELY- TO BE USED MORE FREQUENTLY TN_THE FUTURE IN DEFENDING THE FRG POSITION ON "NOT ROCKING THE BOAT." 8. ALL THIS T$-INTERLARDED WITH REFLECTIONS ABOUT THE HISTORICAL INEFFICIENCY. OF SANCTIONS. BUT ONE GETS THE FEELING THAT MANY OF THFSE_COMMENTS ARE SO AGGRESSIVELY DEFENSIVE OF THE FRG POSITION-BECAUSE THERE MAY BE A PERHAPS SUBCONSCIOUS-RFCOGNITION THAT THE GERMAN PEOPLF AT LARGE ARE NOT_COMFORTABLE WITH THE VARIOUS FORMS OF. RATIONALIZATION.THEY ARF BEING OFFERED BY THEIR,GOVERN- MENT. (COMMENT: MEDIA QUOTES SUPPORTING THIS ASSESSMFNT OF THE PUBLIC-MOOD HAVF BEEN ANQ ARE BEING-TRANSMITTED VIA DAILY USICA BONN MEDIA REACTION'REPORTING. END COMMENT) ? 9. ATTITUDE TOWARDS OUR-MEASURES AGAINST PQLANQ AND THE ? SOVIET..UNION THE U.S. REQUEST FOR.PARALLEL STEPS BY THE ALLIES COMPARABLE TO U.S. ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION AND POLAND HAS CREATED A STORM. OF DEBATE IN GERMANY. AS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL-REACTION OF THE FRG - WITH BOTH THE REMNANTS OF DETENTE.AND CONSIDERABIF ECONOMIC INTERESTS POTENTIALLY AT RISK ? WAS NEGATIVE. ECONOMIC MINISTER LAMBRDORFF WAS PERHAPS THE SHARPEST CONFIDENTIAL 0 a 0 :3 30 0 0 0 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 is 82 7755040 SCO PAGE 004 - Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 ! C) CONFIDENTIAL - 82 7755040 SCO PAGE 005. NC 7755040 CRITIC WHEN IN A NEWSPAPER INTERVIEW HE QUESTIONED THE MOTIVES BEHIND.IJ.S._SANCTIONS. HE ARGLED THAT U.S.. BY ALLOWING.ITS GRAIN SALES TOGO FORWARD, WAS EXEMPTING ITS MOST IMPORTANT TRADE ITEMS FROM- RESTRIC-TIONS. WHILE URGING EUROPEANS TO TAKE RESTRICTIVE MEASURES AGAINST THEIR.. MOST IMPORTANT TRADE ITEMS. THE FAMILIAR THEME, HEARD AFTER_AFGHANISTAN,.THAT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ARE_AN INPRECISE AND. INEFFECTIVE POLITICAL TOOL WAS RESTATED BY FRG OFFICIALS AND GERMAN INDUSTRY SPOKESMFN SUCH AS.WOLFF VON AMERONGEN. REPRESENTATIVES OF GERMAN INDUSTRIES THAT WOULD BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ECONOMIC SANCTIONS T SUCH AS FIRMS INVOLVED IN THE y9TBERIAN PIPELINE w WERE ALSO QUICK TO PROTEST THE U.S. MEASURES. 10. NEVERTHELESS, THE GEBMAN.REACTION TO THE SANCTIONS POLICY IS EMBRYONIC, ANO THE FRG IS STILL. IN THE EARLY STAGES OF ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPLI- CATIONS OF PARALLELLING U.S. SANCTIONS WHILE CLOSELY WATCHING THE REACTIONS_OF ITS-EC PARTNERS. SEVERAL EXCELLENT EDITORIALS IN THE FRANKFURTER ALLGEMFINE ZEITUNG AND HANDELSBLATT. JOURNALS HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL IN GERMAN BUSINESS CIRr.iES. HAVE RIGHTLY FOCUSED. ON THE SANCTIONS ISSUE AS A KEY TEST-OF GERMAN RELATIONSHIP TO THE ALLIANCE AND HAVE CRITICIZED. PRESENTLY TIMID FRG STANCE. PRELIMINARY. EMBASSY CONTACTS WITH-INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVES EVINCES A GREATER DEGREE OF UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORT FOR SANCTIONS MEASURES THAN IS EVIDENT IN OFFICIAL PRONOUNCEMENTS TO DATE. 0 11. DIVERGENCES llniLt Int. LuU/Lzu urruo! i Lurv OAS rncvtu I ACL.I L.r VL. L' STRONG VERBAL FIRE-ON THE SCHMIDT/GENSCHER.GOVERNMENT,. ANU SEVERAL OPPOSITION. POLITICIANS (NOTABLY ALOIS MERTFS AND NORBERT BLUEM) HAVF,STRESSED MOSCOW'S ROLE TN THE POLISH EVENTS, THF_OPPOSITION_HAS NOT TAKEN A POSITION. i. OF EXPLICIT SUPPORT FOR A POLICY OF SANCTIONS. AND THERF t Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 Qi C, Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 t STATE NC7755040 82 7755040 SCO _ PAGE 006. 11 IS NO INDICATION IT PLANS TO DO Sp. -INSTEAD. THE CDU/CSU HAS STRESSED THE JOI'NT_GOVERNMENT-OPPOSITION BUNDESTAG RESOLUTION ON-POLAND OF DECEMBER-18 (@1 BONN 25097). .WHICH DOES NOT GO BEYOND URGING THAT THE GOVERNMENT "SUSPEND" GOVERNMENT ECnNQMTC_ASSISTANCE TO-POLAND AS LONG AS THE "MEASURE OF SUPPRESSION" CONTINUES. 12. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF PRESSURE FOR A TOUGH STAND ON POLAND IS THE?pOWERFUL GERMAN LABO? FEDERATION- (DGE3). YET. IT IS-SO FAR FOLLOWING THE CAUTIOUS OUTLOOK OF THE POLITICAL-FCONOMTC ESTABLISHMENT FOR REASONS OUTLINED IN REF D. C STEPS WE SHOULD_TAKF._ ? w w w .. w. w w-.- w w w w w w WE DO NOT FORESEE SIGNTFICANT_CHANGE IN FRG CAUTION- OVER THE NEXT. WEEK OR an, PARTICULARLY IF THE SITUATION IN POLAND CONTINUES A STOW RFTURN TO "NORMAL." CONTINUED . FAILURE OF THE_POLISH RFGIME TO PROVIDE CONVINCING SIGNALS OF AN INTENTION TO RETURN TO THE PRE-DECEMBER 11 REFORM COURSE COULD PRODUCE PRESSURES ON THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FOR TOUGHER ACTION, BUT IT IS PROBABLY TOO EARLY FOR THAT NOW. 13. IF THE POLISH REGIME DOES NOT SOON PRODUCE THE "SIGNALS" GENSCHER WANTS. THEN WE COULD BEGIN TO 'PRESS THE FRG ON THIS POINT. -40DITIONALLY,-WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ALFRT To POTENTIAL. PRESSURE THAT-MIGHT BE BROUGHT TO BEAR UPON THE FRG BY ITS LESS PATIENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS. WE SHOULD ALSQ TAKE CARE TO REASSURE THE FRG THAT FIRM ACTION.AGAINST THE POLISH-REGIME OR THE SOVIET UNION NEED NOT JEOPARDIZE RESOLUTION OF SUCH CRITICAL EAST-WEST ISSUES AS..ARMS CONTROL.- AT THE LEAST. WE SHOULD INSIST THAT THE FRG RESPECT THE NEED FOR COMPLEMENTARITY OF ACTIONS IF WE ARE TO OBTAIN OUR SHARED. OBJECTIVE OF PERSUADING-THE-POLISH REGIME TO STOP ITS REPRESSION AND THAT. ACCORDINGLY. THE FRG SHOULD NOT UNDERMINE OUR ACTIONS IF IT CANNOT JOIN THEM. Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 CONFIDENTIAL 0 I 0 - . ' . - . . . . . . . . I Y q t v or, + 7 r 4 _ Y .... V c wwwwww.www.wwww.-.wwwwww.wwwwww.wwwww..wwwwwwww..w.wwwwwww.w.wwwww.w.www.www~ Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 CONFIDENTIAL STATE 82 7755040 SCO , PAGE 007. NC-7755040 .. '.....TOR>;.0521p5Z.JAN.02 ..._..._.___._.._.. ._ .. 14. AS THE DEBATE ON PANCTIONS DEVELOPS IN GERMANY. _ WE WOULD ALSO ADVISE U.4..OFFICIALS TO KEEP-THE FOLLOW- ING POINTS IN MIND IN THEIR PUBLIC STATEMENTS! -? THE GERMANS WILL BALK AT AN OPEN ENDED COMMITMENT TO SANCTIONS. WE.SHOUID STRESS BOTH THE.IMITED_NATURE OF THE SANCTIONS AND THE OBJECTIVES WE WISH TO ACHIEVE THEREBY. ?? WE SHOULD ATTEMPT-TO DEFUSE-THE ARGUMENT THAT THE U.S. IS ASKING MORE OF THE FRG THAN IT IS WILLING TO DO ITSELF BY OUANTIFYINC IN $0 FAR AS POSSIBLE THE ECONOMIC SACRIFICE THE,U.S. 18-ASSUMING THROUGH SANC- TIONS. IN COMPARING U.S. AND FRG TRADE WITH THE _ SOVIETS. THE BASE YEAR THAT SHOULD BE CHOSEN IS PRE- AFGHANISTAN 1979 (WHEN.U.S. AND FRG EXPORTS TO USSR WERE ABOUT EQUAL) RATHER THAN 1981. -- WE SHOULD.STRFSS U.S. CONSULTATIONS. BOTH BILATER- ALLY AND WITHIN NATO. SOME OTHERWISE SYMPATHETIC GERMAN INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVES HAVE OBSERVED THAT U.S. CALLS TO JOIN IN SANCTIONS SHOULD NOT APPEAR AS A DIKTAT: FINALLY 4040 WE SHOULD.CONCENTRATE ON OTHER EUROPEANS FIRST. THIS WILL.AVOID THE CRITICISM_THAT.I$_E.SPECIALLY_.UNCOM- FORTABLE TO-THE PRESENT COALITION THAT THE U.S. TREATS THE FRG AS ITS EUROPEAN VASSAL. AND IT MIGHT MAKE THE FRG MORE CONSCIOUS OF THE DANGER OF ISOLATION WITHIN EUROPE. WOESSNER END OF MESSAGE CONFIDENTIAL E Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190009-1 '3