TALKING POINTS ON MIDDLE EAST/LEBANON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001403410004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 17, 2007
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: August 4, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/17: CIA-RDP84B00049R001403410004-0
SECREl
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
DDI 6382-82
4 August 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
A/NIO/NESA
SUBJECT: Talking Points on Middle East/Lebanon
1. As expected Israel is using "salami" tactics to slice off sections
of Beirut, increase the pressure on Arafat and, if necessary, prepare the
ground for a final assault. The next step may be a drive to cut off the
southern suburbs (mostly slums) from the commercial heart of the city.
2. -Should the Irsaelis encounter weakening PLO resistance, they may
escalate their drive into a final offensive. Reaction to a major attack
would include:
-- The Syrians would face a serious dilemma; Assad would
lose considerable credibility if he did nothing to save the PLO
but risks being driven out of the Bekaa valley and all of
Lebanon if he provokes the Israelis. Damascus probably will
feel compelled to make a symbolic military response. Most
likely the Syrians will try to limit ground clashes to Beirut
and make a token show of support with their air force. There
is some risk, however, that the situation will develop into a
larger Syrian-Israeli clash.
-- The Soviets are not likely to risk any military move, such as
attempting to evacuate the Palestinians, that could mean a
clash with the Israelis. We expect continued Soviet naval
patrols and increased surveillance if the US expands its naval
operations in the area. PLO leaders may seek refuge in the
Soviet embassy.
-- The UN Security Council would almost certainly consider a tough
resolution. It would probably call for mandatory sanctions
against Israel.
-- A spate of terrorist incidents would occur, including bombings
or attacks on US and Israeli officials and installations by
 Approved For Release 2007/04/17: CIA-RDP84B00049R001403410004-0
SECRET
Palestinians or their sympathizers. Moderate Arab states could
also be targets. Demonstrations, perhaps violent, are likely
at US embassies, particularly in Muslim countries.
-- Moderate Arab states would be under pressure to show their
anger with the US. Egypt, moreover, might recall its
ambassador from Tel Aviv.
Approved For Release 2007/04/17: CIA-RDP84B00049R001403410004-0