GROWING TERRORIST DANGER FOR AMERICANS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001403550013-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 13, 2008
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: December 23, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

the Americas and the Near East over the next few months.
State Dept. review compieteaj
National Foreign Assessment Center
23 December 1981
Growing Terrorist Danger for Americans
Key Judgements
The kidnapping of General Dozier by the Red Brigades along
with other recent international terrorist incidents portend
increased security threats--particularly to Americans--in Europe,
remain at large.
--Terrorist groups are increasingly planning attacks against
Americans: Dozier was the first American the Brigades have
attacked; American installations in Guatemala appear under
significant and imminent threat; and, Libyan-directed assassins
attacks against US nationals.
--If anti-US operations produce positive results, terrorist
groups that share the Brigades anti-ITS orientation--such as the
Red Army Faction in West Germanv--w ill be encnuraged to attempt
further incentive to attack Americans.
--The extradition from the United States to Israel of Ahu
Eain, a Palestinian terrorist, has provided radical Palestinians
increasingly have used mass-casualty producing car bombs
bombing operations, and in the Near East where terrorist
Innocent American passers-by--even if not deliberately
attacked--appear at some risk in the United Kinqdom, to which the
Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) again has extended its
Issues
This memorandum was prepared for the Interdepartmental Group on
Terrorism by of the International Terrorism
Center, NFAC and contains information received by noon,
23 December 1981. Questions or comments should be directed to
the Chief, International Terrorism Center, Office of Global
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The actions of some terrorist groups may influence future
behavior of other groups, but we see no evidence of a central
coordinating authority. To some extent, the RAF and the Red
Brigades share similar strategic objectives, but such issues as
NATO nuclear weapons deployments are not at the forefront of PIRA
or Palestinian concerns.
The Libyan threat to senior US officials and the Abu Fain
extradition case are not issues being stressed by West Furooean
terrorist groups. Both the Libvan campaign and Palestinian anger
over Abu Eain could involve the use of radical Palestinian groups
against US interests, especialJ.v in the Middle Fast.
The US i.s facing terrorist threats from several quarters
which, although unconnected, will challenge the US ability to
react to widely dispersed and potentially serious international
terrorist attacks.
The Dozier Kidnapping: Others to Follow?
The outcome of the Dozier kidnapping by the Red Brigades is
likely to determine whether the Brigades, or other terrorist
groups that oppose NATO policies such as the Red Army Faction
(RAF) in West Germany, attack US officials in the near term. The
first Brigades communique on the Dozier kidnapping and earlier
published materials suggest the Brigades are trying to tap anti-
military, anti-nuclear sentiment in Italy and West Europe. They
hope to embarrass NATO and the US and to erode the Italian
government's policies on the Alliance and nuclear weapons
deployment. By prolonging the kidnapping, the Brigades seek
maximum public attention.
The communique calls for a coordinated or cooperative effort
between the Brigades, and other terrorist groups, specifically
the RAF, PIRA and ETA Basques in Spain. We believe RAP
operatives already have begun target selection and surveillance,
and preparations for operations against US targets in West
Germany. If the Dozier operation seems to be achieving positive
results for the Brigades,'the RAF is more likely to accelerate
its preparations for an attack against an American official or
installation in order to advance anti-US objectives both groups
The Irish Republican Army and ETA Basques are less likely to
target Americans at this time. Most US officials in Spain are
located outside normal ETA operational areas. Anti-NATO feeling
in Spain is not high.
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Although anti-NATO, the PIRA values support from certain
segments of American society and would risk categorical.
condemnation in the US should it attack American targets. There
remains a threat of indiscriminate PIRA hombinq in the London
area, which could produce victims amonq American passers-bv. The
PIRA launched a bomhing campaign in the United Kinqdom this fall,
and in the past, has attempted hombi.ngs in Enaland dur_ina the
holiday season. Stringent security has limited the effectiveness
of such campaigns, but British authorities apnarentiv have stil.i
not uncovered a cache of over. 500 pounds of explosives believed
hidden somewhere in the London area for use in a future bombing
campaign.
The Abu Eain Extradition Case
The US extradition to Israel on 13 December of accused
Palestinian terrorist Ziyad Abu Eain, after a two-year battle in
US courts, has heightened anti-US sentiment in the Near East and
the threat to the well-being of Americans there and elsewhere.
US Embassies in the region have been warned during the past two
years that US interests would be attacked if Eain were extradited
to Israel.
His extradition comes at a time of increased tensions in the
Near East over Israeli de facto annexation of the Golan Heights,
the stalemated Palestinian autonomy talks and reinforcement of
military positions along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Even
moderate Arabs point to the refusal of US courts to extradite
PIRA terrorists to the UK as evidence of a US double-standard on
the question of extradition.
At this juncture, we have no direct evidence of Palestinian
terrorist plans to attack US interests. The maior Palestinian
organizations have not attacked Americans since the early ?Os.
We treat with reserve retorts of such Palestinian intentions
Nevertheless, the PLO has
called for "decisive reprisals" aaai nst- t-hp TTS _
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Ankara have increased security measures. Even if the first wave
of anti-American feeling subsides without terrorist attacks,
passions will again rise when the Israelis try. Abu Eain. A
conviction and long sentence would almost certainly spark
reprisals against US interests. The Israelis have yet
announced a trial date.
US Embassies in Beirut, Kuwait, Damascus an
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The Libyan Threat
We continue to believe the Libyan-directed threats against
US officials are serious. Qadhafi has the assets to attempt such
a mission, a long record of suonort .for international terrorism,
and has attempted to assassinate foreign leaders in the east
including Sadat and Habre of Char?.
Most Libyan attempts against world leaders have been
thwarted in the planning or operational phase before the attack
could take place. In many instances, tight security around the
intended victim has persuaded Libyan-directed assassins to call
off the attempt. Nonetheless, the Libyan campaign against US
officials is without predecent, and the potential effectiveness
of security, and other deterrant measures is hard to gauge.
Other Terrorist Threats
Mass-casualty producing car bombs have been used to some
extent by the PIRA in the United Kingdom, but such attacks are
mainly centered in the Near East. Statistically, there have been
twice as many car bombings by international terrorist groups
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this year as durinq the same ner.iod in lg80, and resultant
casualties in 1981. will. he higher_ than for any year since 1?r,8.
Most of the recent, serious car homhinas have taken place in
Beirut and Syria, where there are relatively light concentrations
of Americans. Unless US interests are directly targetted, the
threat from car bombings to Americans in the United Kingdom and
the Near East seems incidental and remote.
New Dangers in Europe
Ifl (Armenian
terrorists have worked operationally with radical Palestinian
terrorists in Europe, a more ominous terrorist threat would
obtain in West Europe. The Palestinians have a well-developed
support infrastructure in Europe, and the Armenian Secret Army
for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) is among the most capable
and dangerous terrorist organizations in the world.
Americans could become targets of this potentially Hower. ful
combination if the Palestinians, in reaction to the Ahu Fain
case, expand their target list to include US nationals and
solicit Armenian cooperation
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