RAMIFICATIONS OF PLANNED US NAVAL EXERCISE IN THE GULF OF SIDRA,(SANITIZED)1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001503630013-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2007
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: August 10, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/03/14 :CIA-RDP84B00049R001503630013-5
Approved For Release 2007/03/14 :CIA-RDP84B00049R001503630013-5
 Approved For Release
IIv~TERAGFNCi iii2~LLIGE~G?a ':~5,~..,..::_'.~='
14 e-~iFy,.~t 1981
I2AMIFrCATIGNS OF PLA?T:v~D US >~~~~4~AL I;;?;~RCI5F IN TiiE
GULF Or SIDRA, 1.941
503630013-5 25X1
This assessment was prepared at the recruest of
the Di.~ector of Central Irtelliger~ce under the
auspice:a of the Natior_al Sntell~_~~~r_ce Of~'icer for
Near East and South Asia. Contributions Frere pro-
w? ded l~v the Bureau of Irtellicencc C:nd R::searc ~,
Department of State; tho De fer?se i~]telli crrce
Aceracy; the National Security Aea*ZCy; ~_rnVt`~e
intellic-~?nce organizations of tt=.~ ?'~rrny, Air Force,
Na?,ry, an.c I.1 sine Corps -` has b on caordirated
at the w~~rkirg level.
SU~iP..FcY COP;CT,US70:~'S
-- The Li.~:yazi ^ov;~rn.~nent .s lik alv tc: vier t?~e exercise as
a eonsNirac_- directed affairs t it. The ~ossib~_lity of a
hostil~~ tac~,._tc~Fl reactian re.~z;ltin-s in .a C~;i_~ri7 sn- ~_s real.
Even ~?:w gout. ,4~.c:1~1 a s~._rraish ~~:.he uib~'~u: Co~~~::Y~^~-~~-
i .a.a__t"i a. t. Z'clV
view tae pen: vr~~~ion of its clair;lad .CZ cni~,~
the United ;~ because of the current sofT,: oil market,
== ~',l-es , Italy, and Greece could readily obtain
alternate s;:.;~.;.zces of high-ctualit crude.
Italian companies operatin in Lib a Sc:ne US and
experience short-term supp~ Y ~ however, might
For its Y Problems if der__ed L~.byan oil.
part, Tripoli's substantial cushion of S1 billion
in foreigts alone could finar_;~n r
imports . _ more t.ian a.ie 25X1
year of
Nationalization. Qadh~." t c:_ .;;_d also cCz-ry c:~~tt his
oft-repeated threat to natic . .1.,
interests of US companies o:-? - the rema, ~?zng ='tYuity
believe, however, that suG~-:- :' g ir_ Libya.. Wei ao r_ot
Although prone to _ `-?'~-_.reme respo~:se likely.
of the early 1970spreC-pitc~-? ~~ctior_s, sincE: i.he _.::cesses
Qadliafi ~s ~argely kept `Zis :,._zcs oz"f
the petroleum inuustry, regarding it both as lis ~:11arantee
of international influence ~.nd as r
the welfare society t~ ~ his source ~:,~ ; i:iids for
cent. Despite the closinYlaflfkthe p s peopl"e '-arc:.ly au.~.es-
11 lYC1CJII-
ington, Libya has continued to treatotl e oil ~~~:om~l zniE(S~) r:-, jo.,
as potential allies than as tools of JS - ro
Qadhafi's response was to inter: or expeloLS~'~~ Y`' however,
personnel from tree county ~il company
production capability would dec?~,n a few mon~.:is Libya's oil
.the order of 700,000 to 1.2 million b/d~~ `"o a level on
25X1
Harassment of US ~'' The most likely Libyan reaction
to a US exercises that rltizens,
some de ree of esuited in a militarl? incicent wc~a~_-? b
g hvera~_1 U't:-US
co11 ~. " : on in t.Y~.e e:;erc1 Ce .
-- Frar? ___. was been mare supportive . ~: Ca~t;~ Uavi d than
othc;: :st European states but ,..~..~~d r_ut undc-rsta.~t.i
why t - -_ington would cho~:~se to c:::r,:~"~lic;.te an ~.lread.y~
' voles ~___. _..~~ Micidl~ East si-:;uation. ~=:ittez~rard would
be di~,~~leased at ITS diss`eaard fo~~ his ?.mentions
to attempt to improve relations with Libya. Any
incident--with ar ~~~ithout cansulatior_---,could set
back efforts to coardinafe US and French hTorth
African policy.
-- Italy would worry morE:.=:^out the safetj- of Italians
in Libya and of Libya-.:- ..nd Americans _. 1 Italy than
about the im_~r~ediate e- -_:.-amic effects o:_ an eil boycott.
-- _Greece would also be - r;cerned far thc~ ~af_ety of
Greek workers in Li.~." ~_. Opposi.tien le_.:?er Papar_dreau
might use tha US act ~cn---aIld Libyan r~:~,_ .ion to
it--as amrau::ition in his electoral car .-?=ic-n against
close Greek ties to the United. estates.
Arab t~'orl.d
Reaction Y~y and within other Arab and. I:~lam- .: >i:ates to
any exercise:-related incident wi 11 lar~saly cepen": ox~ whet3.er
expanded. ho.:;tilities ensue and an the ~~r~~:~:.;istin J or eni:atiar~
of particular iaaticrs toward the Qa:ihafi ~-~~gir. _ ~t p.rapaa:?~ ~a
to be es c,. ;11 stridznt ~ ~- ~~? .~.~ t:re L'..-_,. _:i
P - Y in ~ n effort ...o _s
States, Ec~r? ~, and Israel whip aligning the ~:;p, ws_th t~~__.
Arab states . In addition, Moscow will use t.h~.~ eszr.:nle a W L:S
"aggressic;:~ ~.o exacerbate an~i-~'~-~aricun '- ~ -~-- _'
?. G. '.:1 _'_i..~ ilk Y'r `'.~jt~?-...
Europe. ;r.: , .~=~iiate Soviet military re action, i~owever, ~i s
?likely to :;, ycw--key and limited to surveil ~ ance by the US~~