DRAFT ESTIMATE ON US-JAPANESE ECONOMIC RELATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001700250003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2007
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 29, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-R DP84B00049R0017},25
X82-12788
29 October 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Draft Estimate on US-Japanese Economic Relations
1. I have asked that the draft estimate on US-Japanese economic
relations be worked on to treat with greater depth the impact of the yen-
dollar ratio on the course of the trade balance, both historically (i.e.,
the adverse movement of their currency in reducing the trade deficit) and
prospective)
2. At lunch today Secretary Shultz advanced the interesting idea that
what may be happening now to US currency and trade, particularly in relation-
ships with Japan, is a Swiss phenomena in which it is not the interest
differential or the trade balance which is the controlling influence but
an increase in the value psychologically attached to security and the security
attributed to the dollar. He suggested that would be amenable to having some
of our analysts come over to State and engage in an exploratory discussion
of this and other aspects of the Japanese-US trade and currency relationships.
3. Also, he said that he had the feeling that nowhere in government was
the world financial crisis being addressed in an overall .nd comprehensive
way but only in terms of what particular countries might do in tightening
up and pulling in their horns. He said we could only count on growth to make
it possible to carry the level of debt which has been created and that all
we're preaching as a remedy is austerity and that austerity is not particular
conducive to needed growth.
4. Will you try to have this concept and the possible non-inflationary
ways of stimulating growth addressed. We might have a discussion around
midweek next week and perhaps if the ideas we can generate are sufficiently
concrete they can be introduced into a dialogue with Shultz
cc: NIO/Economics
SECRET
Aonroved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-R DP84B00049R001700250003-9
 Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-RDP84B00049R001700250003-9
Contents
Tab B
Tab C
Tab D
Tab E
OGI Study: National Strategies and the Global
Economy
Tab F EUR Draft Study: Medium-Term Economic Prospects--
Industrialized Countries
Separate Folders
1. Treasury Study: Implications of International Debt Servicing
Problems
Memo: International Financial Issues
OGI: International Financial Situation Report #1
OGI
Memo: Implications of.the LDC,Debt Problem
Study: Financially Troubled Borrowers
Financial Tssues.
Memo: US-Japanese Economic Relations and Global
Approved For Release 2007/04%27 C;IA-R DP84B00049R001700250003-9'