TALKING POINTS FOR THE DDCI

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001800080006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2007
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: January 27, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tab A Agenda and Backup Papers 1- 0 1C
(!JM 6?W"25X1
)
~sAP ?'r c H~
Tab B Polish Update ( ~ o CAA L7 " Y
Tab C Recent Reporting on Poland
Tab D Other Areas of Concern
Tv-6 F, Po,4es 1 ?- Ia., w~ 4 c
kL, I C ( I ---- 2 IA4
SVl,erv- 4 Lk S S &
&re.,"
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 27 January 1982
As, of 14 00
TTAL1IWG POINTS FOR THE DDCJ
Jaruzelski facednumerous difficulties -that.threaten -his
cur rent: firm hold on the reins of power. The situation -in the
country remains unstable as the party leadership, appears divided,
Solidarity tries to organize. resistance, the economy slides,. and
the popular mood-=sours.
Archbishop-Glemp has recently expressed: apprehension
that- the current--stal.-emate will--lead to popular unrest and
violence. ---
A close adviser to Jaruzelski, has publicly admitted
that there is-.a danger of spontaneous protests against price
hikes and that the economy is deter iorat inch -because of
-Westerrr-sanctions. -
i
In h
s speech _on_ Monday, Jaruzelski failed-__~o chart-a-.- clear
(course out of t-he-
current contro phas
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still =aekeying
Concerns about control will prompt the government to
- -keep basic martial law restrictions in effect beyond--spring
----and to sue=whatever-force is necessary to stipp.r. es a -- _
resistance,despite Jaruzelski's ambiguous r.o)oi ses on
_ Monday
Solidarity continues efforts to organize resistance-.--- A
National Underg-.round-Committee consisting of 18- Solid r,i-ty
leaders from the Warsaw--region evidently has been set -upi=as--the
l
of
nuc
eus
an eventual nationwide infrastructurel. -
-- Short-sporadic strikes are occurring that show the
initial__shock-of=martial law is wearing of E!._
--- Archbishop Glemp--visited Walesa last Sunday and-found
him in :good spirits:--The Primate also talked. with senior
Solidarity off-ici-als in a camp and descr-ibe!d them as=more
----- determined than. ever not to !negoti.ate before they are
unconditionally, freed.
Moderate-s=and--Hardliners apparentl=y--are
for primacy in the leadership.
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-- Archbishop Clemp, and other senior Church officials
travel to Rome next--week to discuss the situation.
Despiti a-this public criticism of martial law;-Archbishop
Glc tp seems - to view- Jaruzelski as a moderate and may-be
inclined td-be-more _supportive of the General.
The Church appears divided on supporting ;taruzelski,
however, and-cannot-:go too far in any event without-risking
its- cr.edibi.lity. .A-.member of Glemp'.s delegation to Rome is
reportedly a hardline Bishop who may take issue with Glemp's
app 'oach o_.
The economy continues to struggle because of worker malaise,
bad weather.. and raw material shortages exacerbated by Western
.ancti.ons.
-- Delay in formulating policy may only dee
en th
p
e economic
slide.
-- Consumers face massive price hikes in early February and
continuing-low-meat rations,. --
_ On the debt, Warsaw is talkli g today with barn ers -art 'paying
its interest by mid-February so that the 1981 pr?i ~fte debt
rescheduling agreement can be signed later in the' month.
The--Poles-have not even begun to tackle their-11982 debt
er-v-ice of $10--bill-i-on;-- Western governments-in midzwJanuary
suspehded__IC82 debt relief discussions.
The Polish economy is feeling some of the effects of Western
sanctions and will feel them even more in coming weeks.-
Credit.cutoffs will make it harder for Warsaw to import
industrial materials and to service its debt.
-- Continued suspension of grain credits will intensify
-f-udder shortages.---Some distress slaughtering of poultry may
have__already- started because. of lack of. U:3?-corn.
mixed--opinion among Poles on US s.anctions.-
Many Poles-welcome US condemnation of martial. law;--and some
__ contacts have-praised-the sanctions. --Both--Archbishop- Glemp
and thePope-,_ however-, fear that privation' induced
b
th
_y
e
-cutoff __of__Leed
gra ns could contribute ta. public unrest and
possibly .v _o ence
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-- The reg.i.urae has comola ned bi tterl.; about the :>anetionc,
and .i s iryi nq t.o blameCth&m for many economi i l l s to
d i scr red i t the US with the populace and to rir ive a wedge
he1wen the US and the Allies.
The Wp-sir Europeans are movinq slowly toward restricting some
ecuriomic relationships with Poland and the Soviet: Union, but they
are not likely to grove much- further unless, the :, i tuat ion
:;igniticantly. deteriorates.
The allies believe that maintaining economic relations
can have a restraining influence on the Soviet:.
--- They generally believe that economic sanctions hurt more
those applying them.
They believe that strong sanctions might actually-work
aclain:t: their goal of encouraging some Polish reform.
West European trade with the East is substantially
larger and more important to individual Allied countr-ies
than is US trade with the East.
The West Europeans often cite continued US grain exports to
the Soviets as evidence that the US is also prot6cting its---
important. economic interests.
-- Most probably would-participate in a grain embargo as
they did in the Afghanistan case, but would st i.l.?. bea
,reluctant to take other measures.
The-Allies-generally-would oppose-any trigger.-i--ng of Polish
defau.l.t. --:They believe that the Western has maximized its
leverage .thrQuq.b-the _pr_esent_ "wa it-and-_aec" poster. e_ .-abau_t--
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