GRAIN SHIPMENTS TO THE SOVIET UNION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001800080013-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2007
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: January 19, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved I-orRe' e
MEMORANDUM FOR:
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 Approved For FJ?IeEas f 2CJD7102N2,t: CIA-RTPM4 OQQ4PRR0A8000$OQ1 ~-6
ES/MI # 96
19 January 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
SUBJECT : Meetings
Type of Meeting ? "A Meeting" Requested attendance by Admiral
Inman.
Date Tuesday 19 January
Time . 3:30-4:30
Place Room 7219, Deputy's Conference-Room
State Department
Chaired By Ambassador Stoessel
Principal Only? Yes
Subject/Agenda Grain Shipments to the Soviet Union
When to Expect Papers: None to be distributed beforehand:
Time Info Received : 0935. 19 January from Sheila Lopez-.at State.
Distribution: Chris
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 Approved FQr Rel!! fIj 22 R001800080013-6
Grain Shipments to the USSR
Talking Points
o We expect the USSR to import a record
45 million tons of grain in the marketing
ending 30 June 1982.
o They have already purchased or have commit-
ments for 39 million tons.
o Soviet grain needs this year exceed their
ability to import by at least 10 million
tons.
o Soviet import requirements will remain high
even if they are able to restore growth in
grain production.
o Now and in the future, Moscow can obtain
most of its grain needs from non-US sources
if they choose -- but probably not in the
mix of wheat and coarse grains they have
preferred in the past.
o Since Warsaw declared martial.. law on 13 December,
grain prices generally have drifted lower,
following the trend of the last year and reflecting
the abundance of grain in the international market.
o Of the 12.5 million tons already purchased from the
United States, 6.2 million tons have already been
shipped.
o To hurt the Soviets an embargo would have to
include all or most major exporters.
o During the 1980 embargo, other grain exporters
failed to cooperate with the US and chances
of imposing an effective embargo now seem remote.
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2007/03/22 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001800080013-6
CONFIDENTIAL
USSR: Grain Imports, July 1981 - June 1982
Total
of which:
US
Argentina
EC2
Australia
Eastern Europe
Other
1 Estimated.
Sales and
Projected CotmnTnttme is Shippedl
To date July-December
Total
18.0 - 12.5
8.0 8.0
12.5 12.5
3.0 2.8
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
1.3 .9
2 includes wheat flour and grain equivalent of mixed feed.
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 Approved For Release 2007/03/22 : CIA-RDP84B00049RO01800080013-6
USSR: Grain. Imports, by Source
50
MILLION TONS
30 H
20-
a Preliminary
b Estimates.
&P Other
= Argentina
L:] Australia
= Canada
United States