ALTERNATIVES TO SOVIET GAS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190015-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190015-2
SECRETI 25X1
Alternatives to Soviet Gas
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Middle Eastern Gas
There are vast reserves of natural gas in the Middle East,
especially in Iran and Qatar, which could be developed for
export.
-- Numerous proposals have surfaced recently, all of
which are expensive because of transport costs.
-- Qatar may export LNG in the 1990s and Iran could pipe
gas to Europe by 1990.
-- In,addition to costs, some Europeans have doubts about
political stability in the region and the wisdom of
switching from OPEC oil to OPEC gas.
Iran Turkey Pipeline
Iran is again considering exporting gas to Western Europe.
o Iran has gas reserves equivalent to 65 billion barrels
of oil.
o Iran had earlier planned to export 200,000 b/d oil
equivalent annually to Western Europe through a swap
agreement with the Soviet Union; the revolutionary
regime has since cancelled the deal.
o Iran has now reached an agreement in principle with
Turkey to allow construction of an export pipeline
through Turkey:
-- One proposal calls for a liquefaction plant for gas
shipment through the Mediterranean.
-- Another proposal calls for a pipeline to Italy.
o An Italian firm is preparing a preliminary feasibility
study of the projects--estimated to cost $7 to $10
billion.
o Both the Italians and the West Germans have indicated
an interest in constructing this pipeline.
o The gas is likely to be costly unless subsidized loans
are secured.
o A gas pipeline must traverse difficult terrain and
would take a minimum of 5 years to complete.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190015-2
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o A pipeline would pose some security risks by crossing
several countries.
o Some potential European purchasers may be concerned
about the wisdom of trading dependence on OPEC oil for
dependence on OPEC gas.
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SECRET 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190015-2
 Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01800190015-2
US Role
The US has a number of options to consider to facilitate the
development of alternative gas supplies.
-- project financing
-- encouraging US companies to participate in technology
and project development
-- play a political role in facilitating agreement
between parties, both governmental and commercial.
A conspicuous US role in pushing the alternatives could be
damaging.
-- European gas purchasers would view this as another
effort to undermine the Soviet pipeline.
-- Norway could view US pressure as a justification for
returning to a hawkish pricing role.
Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01800190015-2
SECRET
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Proposed Gas Pipelines from the Persian Gulf
Red
Se
G Proposed LNG liquification facility
O Natural gasfield
Existing pipeline
Proposed pipeline
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Ka
Pe rsian
Gti
Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190015-2