LETTER TO ROBERT J. WINCHESTER FROM RICHARD F. KAUFMAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00148R000500990007-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 24, 2008
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 2, 1982
• Content Type: LETTER

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December 2, 1982
Assistant Legislative Counsel
Office of the Director of
Central Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
.Attached are the questions that Senator Pro~nire
stated he would like Chairman Rowen to answer for the
Record of the December 1, 1982, briefing.
Sincerely,
G'K4adF.k~S,.,.
Richard F. Kaufman
General Counsel and
Assistant Director
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WRITTEN QUESTIONS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD
BY SENATOR WILLIAM PROXMIRE
1. What were the annual total and per capita rates of grain pro-
duction in the Soviet Union in the years preceding the revolu-
tion and other representative prerevolutionary periods?
2. Provide a table showing annual total and per capita grain pro-
duction since 1950.
3. i~at is your estimate of the crop losses in the past four
years due to poor weather conditions?
4. By what .annual rates did consumption grow in the period 1971-
1981 and how do these rates compare with the growth of invest-
ment?
5. Did the Soviets decide to cut back on consumption or civilian
investment in order to accommodate the defense increases of
the 1970's, and what conclusions do you draw about that
decision?
6. mat conclusion do you draw from the fact that in the current
five-year plan investment is scheduled to grow more slowly
than consumption and why do you believe consumption may not
grow or may even decline?
7. h4~at values do you project for Soviet- exports of oil and has
to the West for 1985?
8. ~ at was the volume of oil exports to the West in each of the
years 1980, 1981, and 1982?
9. What were the monthly volumes of oil exports to the West in
1982 and the prices per barrel received in each month?
10. Provide a table showing the trend of consumption relative to
oil production from 1980 to the present.
11.. Several years ago, the OECD countries agreed to maintain cer-
tain minimum interest rates in credit transactions with the
USSR. Describe the original and current levels of interest
rates established under this agreement and the record of
compliance.
12. What is the estimate of annual coal production over the next
five years?
13. Describe the magnitudes and exact locations of the new chromite
and manganese deposits coming on stream in Kazakhistan and
Georgia, when production will begin, and what the capacities
will be. Describe any other major new mineral deposits coming
on stream.
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14. Discuss the Baykal-Amur Mainline railroad project, its size,
costs, and purpose, the extent to which it will open up Siberian
resources to greater development, and its present status.
15. One of the most difficult things to measure is the productivity
of capital. There is no good measure of it in our awn economy,
yet you claim to be able to measure it for the Soviets. Discuss
the methodology for measuring capital productivity and the level
of confidence you place on this measure.
16. Can you break dawn for 1980, 1981, and 1982 the estimated amount
of Soviet subsidies to Eastern Europe, the amounts the Soviets
say they are providing, aad the amounts of direct hard currency
assistance given to Poland?
17. Provide a detailed summary of the current dollar cost and ruble
host estimates of Soviet defense activities.'
18. List the annual rates of change of Soviet defense activities,
in both dollar and ruble terms, for the period 1970-1982.
19. Compare the uses and limitations of the direct-cost, building-
block methodology for measuring Soviet defense activities and
the indirect or residual approach employing official Soviet
statistics used by William T. Lee and others.
20. What margins of error do you assign to the direct costing and
residual methodologies? Explain your response. _
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