MINUTES OF THE 132ND NFIB MEETING, 27 SEPTEMBER 1983, 1500-1555 HOURS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00441R000100020048-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2014
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: October 7, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/06/04: CIA-RDP84B00441R000100020048-6
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NFIB-M-132
MEMORANDUM FOR NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD PRINCIPALS
FROM: Robert E. Eisenhaur
Deputy Executive Secretary, NFIB
SUBJECT: Minutes of the 132nd NFIB Meeting,
27 September 1983, 1500-1555 Hours
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Summary of Decisions
The Director of Central Intelligence, with the concurrence of
NFIB principals, approved Conflicts in the Horn of Africa (SNIE
76-81) (NFIB-13.1/192, 21 September 1983).
The Director of Central Intelligence, with the concurrence of
NFIB principals, approved Prospects for Reducing Heroin Supplies to
the US (NIE 8-2-83). He directed, however, that the Key Judgments
section be revised prior to publication to reflect changes discussed
at the meeting.
Minutes of Meeting:
1. Conflicts in the Horn of Africa (SNIE 76-81)
The Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council, Mr. Herbert
Meyer, introduced the newly appointed Nb O for Africa, Mr. Monty
Rogers, to present this estimate for consideration by the Board.
Mr. Meyer noted that this topic had not been updated since 1981.
Mr. Rogers briefly described the key points of this estimate.
He said the most dramatic changes over the past two years in the
Horn area have been the political and economic deterioration of
pro-Western governments in the region, and still growing US
involvement in support of these governments. He cited in particular
that US military and economic aid to Sudan- Somalia, and Kenya has
tripled since 1981; and that Soviet support to Ethiopia remains
substantial and is accompanied by a sizable Cuban military force.
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Mr. Rogers also noted Libya's increased involvement in the region,
and that perennial conflicts in the Horn are not close to a
solution. He called attention to Soviet objectives in the Horn and
said that to sustain themselves, countries in this region need each
other. He also noted historical enmity toward the Soviets by
black-African moderate states.
Chairman William
concluded discussion b approving the estimate
. Casey
2. Prospects for Reducing Heroin Supplies to the US (NIE 8-2-83)
The Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council, Mr. Herbert
Meyer, introduced the Deputy Director, NIC Analytic Group,
to present this estimate for consideration by the Board.25xi
said this is the second estimate produced on the
narcotics problem, and he noted that Community coordination was
particularly effective. He cited DEA's preparation of the
estimate's second section (Political-Economic Obstacles to Supply
Disruption Efforts) and inputs elsewhere in the estimate by State
and DDI officers. In highlighting key judgments of the estimate,
said that the US will be hard pressed to contain or
reduce the amount of heroin imported into the US. said
that no one can predict what the upper ceiling in the heroin flow
might be; that supply reduction programs are important indicators
regarding the depth of US concern and should not be cut back; and
that we are gaining closer cooperation with European
governments--joint intelligence and law enforcement action--agaiki
networks that are supplying both continents.
In the extensive discussion that followed, the Chairman observed
that conspicuously absent from the estimate, including the Key
Judgment section, is any mention of other means for cracking down on
the flow of heroin.
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SECRET NFIB-M-132
The Chairman directed that the Key Judgments section of the
estimate be revised as agreed before publishing.
Other Business
The Chairman called attention to two fast-track estimates under
way: Prospects for Lebanon (SNIE 36.4-83) and Prospects for an
Abrupt Interruption of Persian Gulf Oil Exports (SNIE 34/36.2-83).
(Titles are tentative.)
Regarding SNIE 36.4-83 in particular, the Chairman said that
Judge Clark and the President want collective views prevailing in
the intelligence Community on the situation in Lebanon. Terms of
Reference were reviewed and discussed briefly by Board principals.
Regarding SNIE 34/36.2-83, review of the Terms of Reference
prompted a brief discussion. Mr. Meyer said this estimate had been
requested by the Secretary of Energy. Mr. Gates suggested that to
be as helpful as possible, this estimate should include appropriate
Precision, e.g., potential oil flow losses under each scenario and
the broader economic implications of each.
The Chairman
1555 hours.
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concluded discussion and adjourned the meeting at
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Robert E. Eisenhaur
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SECRET NFIB-M-132
THOSE PARTICIPATING
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Mr. William J. Casey, Chairman
Mr. Robert M. Gates, Deputy Director of Intelligence, Central
Intelligence Agency
Mr. Hugh Montgomery, Director of Intelligence and Research,
Department of State
Major General Schuyler Bissell, U.S. Air Force, Acting for Director,
Defense Intelligence Agency
Lieutenant General Lincoln D. Faurer, U.S. Air Force, Director,
National Security Agency
Mr. Jimmie D. Hill, Acting for Under Secretary of the Air Force
Mr. Arthur W. Long, Acting for Special Assistant to the Secretary
(National Security), Department of Treasury
Mr. Phillip A. Parker, Acting for Assistant Director, Intelligence
Division, Federal Bureau of Investigation
Mr. James W. Rawers, Acting for Department of Energy Representative
Brigadier General Harry E. Soyster, U.S. Army, Acting for Assistant
Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army
Mr. Clarke Magruder, Acting for Director of Naval Intelligence,
Department of the Navy
Brigadier General Paul H. Martin, U.S. Air Force, Acting for
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air
Force
'2olonel Jack Dozza, U.S. Marine Corps, Acting for Director of
Intelligence, U.S. Marine Corps
THOSE ATTENDING
iss Eloise R. Page, Deputy Director, Intelligence Community staff
Herbert E. Meyer, Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Monty Rogers, NIO for Africa
Depu Director, NIC Analytic Group
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/06/04: CIA-RDP84B00441R000100020048-6