Draft Minutes of the Fifteenth Meeting 1400 Hours, October 22, 1975 White House Situation Room

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00506R000100020002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 22, 1975
• Content Type: MIN

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE WORKING GROUP
Draft Minutes of the Fifteenth Meeting
1400 Hours, October 22, 1975
White House Situation Room
Chairman: Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, Deputy Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
Members present: Mr. James E. Goodby, Department of State
(representing Mr. George S. Vest, Director,
Bureau of Politi co-Military Affairs)
Mr. William N. Morell, Special Assistant to the
Secretary of the Treasury for National Security
Mr. Robert Ellsworth, Assistant Secretary of
Defense (International Security Affairs)
Mr. Richard. Ober, NSC Staff, Director for
Intelligence Coordination
RADM Robert P. Hilton, JCS (representing Lt. Gen.
John H. Elder, J-5, Plans and Policy)
2~~1A n. Samuel V. Wilson, D/DCI/IC
Briefer:
Others present:
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NIO/Middle East
Mr. Charles, C. Floweree, with Mr . Goodby
Mr. Anthony Cordesman, with Mr. Ellsworth
RADM Donald Harvey, with RADM Hilton
with Gen. Wilson
Executive Secretary
Lieutenant General Brent Scow croft opened his first meeting as Chairman of the
NSCIC Working Group with some brief remarks about the importance of the NSCIC
and its*Working Group in expressing and representing the views of intelligence
consumers, particularly in this period of review of the Intelligence Community.
He stated his belief that, no matter what restructuring of the Intelligence Community
and related Executive branch entities, the NSCIC would continue in some form.
*NSC Declassification/Release Instructions on File*
Classified by Brent Scowcroft
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Agenda Item 1: Approval of the Minutes of the July 2 Meeting
The draft minutes were approved.
Mr. Ellsworth stated that the minutes could be more helpful:
? if they were to include:
- positions taken at the meeting by individual members,
- texts of any briefings presented and copies of visual aids used,
status reports on old business which require continued
staffing, and
? if they were circulated within one.week of the meeting.
Mr. Ellsworth also requested that the agenda be distributed two to three weeks
before the meeting.
General Scowcroft added that the minutes should also reflect any tasks which
are outlined at the meeting.
It was generally agreed that these suggestions would be adopted.
Agenda. Item 2:. Arab-Israeli
General Scowcroft introduced the NIO for the Middle East,
who gave a briefing on the Intelligence Community's efforts since the 1973 Arab-
AXje }~ ar to improve its analysis and reporting on the Middle East.
began by saying that when he became the NIO for the Middle East
two years ago, there was a need to develop a solid underpinning of research and
to concentrate on military analysis. The most recent effort in',this area was Na-
tional Intelligence Analytical Memorandum (NIAM) 35/36-2-75: Arab-Israeli
Hostilities published in June 1975. It reflects Community-wide input and is
regarded as the core of the Community's research effort. Ii ha.s been labeled as
very useful by those in contingency planning and has been dr&awn on to provide
input to several National Security Study Memoranda (NSSMs).
The Arab-Israeli Handbook, an analytical reference aid published annually,
provided the statistical input to the NIAM.
Several Special National Intelligence Estimates (SNIEs) have been produced to
focus on and try to come to grips with the problem of "intention". The effort
to solve the "intent" problem has been expanded to include different parts of
the Intelligence Community and the use of new analytical methodologies, par-
ticularly Bayesian analysis.
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In the spring, CIA's Office of Political Research (OPR) published a Research
Study entitled "The Arab World in the 1980s" which looks at the political
environment. In response to a request from Mr. Ellsworth, a companion study
has been started to look at the military balance in the Arab world of the 1980's.
General Scowcroft commented that the practical problem currently facing policy
makers is how to deal with Israeli arms requests. A crucial factor in U.S. response
will be the perception of the military balance in the Middle East over the next 10
years. Therefore, the consumer needs exactly the kind of help such a paper
would provide.
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According to the Alert Memoranda is a difficult mechanism to use
in the area of Middle East reporting because a crisis of one kind or another always
exists and the subject is so well covered in the daily publications.
Mr. Ellsworth complimented the CIA on its' work and encouraged more cooperative
efforts on these problems. He raised the difficulty the consumer has when too
1 I_ blem he
o
t
General. Scowcroft commented that-the Alert Memoranda mechanism should be
used judiciously to ensure that the Intelligence Community has the consumer's
attention when it really wants it.. He suggested that follow-ups to Alert
Memoranda should be issued to "alert" the consumer to relax. General Wilson
agree i, Aga is suggestion.
When concluded his briefing, Mr. Morell commented that while
he could only speak to economics, he believed that the Intelligence Community's
special studies were very helpful. He thought it would be useful to allow consumers
to see terms of reference for or drafts of papers prior to publication, not to lessen
CIA's objectivity, but to give the intelligence producer the benefit of the information
known to the policymaker.
Agenda Item 3: NSCIC Working, Group Terms of Reference
General Scowcroft informed the members that their comments on the draft
Terms of Reference for the Working Group which were distributed last May
had been taken into account in the revised version which was being passed
out to them. He indicated that the Working Group should not adopt the Terms
of Reference until a new charter for NSCIC is available. In the interim, he
suggested that the members review the revised draft. He requested that
after their review the members forward any comments to him.
is pr
many different kinds of reports come to him at once . To so ve
suggested that reports should include the dates of the source material and drafting
,period, and should be related to other products published about the same time. He
~.
~.lso recommended that a summary overview of the Middle East area be presented on
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Agenda Item 4: Status Report on the Intelligence Evaluation Project
General Scowcroft asked Mr. Ober to present the status report on the Intelligence
Evaluation Project.
Mr. Ober recounted that at its July 2 meeting the Working Group had given
tentative approval to a limited pilot study to evaluate current intelligence product
from the consumer's viewpoint. A panel was established, members were selected
and several formal and informal meetings were held. Because of a divergence
of views on the approach to be taken, it was decided to return to the Working
Group before proceeding.
General Wilson had suggested in his March Work Program that a subcommittee
be formed to explore procedures for conducting a consumer evaluation of a
broader span of intelligence products. Mr. Ober's approach as presented in July
was more limited: to conduct a consumer evaluation project focused on a small
number of current intelligence dailies. This project would be a stepping stone
to others covering weeklies, estimative products, specialized reports, etc.
To date, the panel has identified consumers, which of the publications chosen
they receive and a technique for conducting the evaluation. The plan is to survey
the consumers once for general impressions on a given publication and as often
as possible (one or more times per week) for specific comments on a given
article or articles. Because of variations in readership and intelligence handling
within the organizations involved, some briefers will have to be surveyed and
some surveying will have to be done indirectly.
The Working Group must decide whether to go ahead with this approach, return
to General Wilson's March suggestion or consider a more detailed approach
from Defense which would survey the consumer himself as well as an expanded
list of publications.
To Mr. Goodby's question on duration of the project, Mr. Ober replied that
the project should include one month of surveying and six to eight weeks to
analyze the responses and write the final report.
Mr. Ellsworth agreed that a 90--day framework was very desirable. He went
on to say that senior consumers in Defense do not rely on the five dailies. Since
these consumers regard other products as current intelligence, he thought it
important for the survey to find out what the consumer considers current intel-
ligence to be. He reported that Defense is working with JCS on a survey to
get an overview of consumer attitudes on current intelligence followed by an
overview of consumer attitudes on substantive issues. A lot of the work done
by Mr. Ober is being used in this survey. He further suggested that each
organization should tailor the survey to its needs.
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As a "consumer" of the results of this project, General Wilson remarked that
after determining what the consumer wants, feedback on how policy makers
think their particular area is being handled would be most useful. Mr. Ober
gave assurances that such information would be in the final report as a result
of the questionnaire which would focus on specific articles.
Admiral Hilton remarked that he found the survey difficult to complete. He
was assured by Mr. Ober that the lengthy survey was to be administered only
once and that a shorter questionnaire would be used as follow-up .
General Scowcroft stressed that response will be small if participation
in the project becomes a chore. The panel must develop its survey to help
the consumers to answer. Mr. Ober indicated that he hoped the panel member
would be able to work out a dialogue with the consumer or his assistant. This
close communication would aid the consumer.
General Wilson offered to have three or four questions on tear out sheets put
ti in the publications if this would be of value.
}v`" In response to Admiral Hilton's statement that the consumer's briefing must
be evaluated, Mr. Ober stressed. that this evaluation would be a two step
process: evaluation of what goes into the briefing and the consumer's reactions
to it. General Scowcroft and Mr. Ellsworth agreed with this approach.
Mr. Ellsworth said that the concept of a pilot project will not go in Defense,
but rather this must be a very substantial effort from the beginning. The program
should be carefully developed before the project is launched. Defense is prepared
to do this.
Mr. Ober responded that the project he suggested was "pilot" in the sense
that it is an initial effort dealing with a manageable amount of publications.
He suggested that Defense develop a detailed plan which the Working Group
could consider at its next meeting. Mr. Ellsworth agreed.
General Scowcroft said that the Working Group must sign off on a detailed
program outline before the project is launched. He stressed the importance
of such a project which is really key to the Working Group's purpose.
Agenda Item 5: Discussion of "A Guide to the Intelligence Community's
Production Organizations and their Products" and its Distribution
General Wilson stated that this. document was put together and published in
response to a Working Group request last Spring. While suggestions have
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been made since then to make the document more comprehensive, the Intel-
ligence Community Staff wanted to get this one out and in use and then consider
suggestions for changes in the next version.
Mr. Ellsworth indicated that he had already forwarded specific comments to
Mr. Ober and General Wilson.
General Scowcroft called the guide a useful document for consumers.
The members requested the numbers of copies needed for distribution to
consumers within their organizations.
Agenda Item 6: Proposals .for New Business
Before considering proposals for new business, General Scowcroft asked
General Wilson to report on sorr.e old business.
General Wilson said that the Perspectives, Objectives and Key Intelligence
Questions (KIQs) for FY-1976 had recently been approved by USIB and dis-
tributed to NSCIC Principals and Working Group members. Comments from
the Working Group members were considered in drafting the final versions,
although not all suggestions could he accommodated.
On the problem of expressing uncertainties, General Wilson cited a new
NIE 11-3/8-75 on Soviet Forces for Intercontinental Conflict Through the
Mid-1980's which will soon be considered by USIB as reflecting improvements
in this area, particularly concerning technical uncertainties. General Wilson
reported that he has requested that a study be done by CIA's OPR to define
further the expression of uncertainties. He also gave the titles of two articles
on this subject:
? "Words of Estimative Probability" by Sherman Kent from Studies in
Intelligence, and
? Handbook of Bayesian Analysis for Intelligence by CIA/OPR.
Under new business, General Wilson distributed copies of an Intelligence
Community Staff study entitled "A Report on Intelligence Alert Memoranda"
which evaluates how well this mechanism has served the Community and
the high-level consumer.
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General Wilson then brought two recent publications to the members' attention:
? CIA's Research Study - Chinese Politics and the Sino-Soviet-US Triangle,
and
DIA's Analytical Memorandum - Soviet Support for Wars of Liberation
He indicated that the authors were ready to brief the group or respond to any
questions or comments.
Mr. Ellsworth requested that a bibliography of NIEs, SNIEs and NIAMs be
prepared by the next meeting. General Wilson said it would be done,
Mr. Ellsworth complimented the IC Staff on its use of the DKIQs in developing
the KIQs. He indicated that he would like to have a study done on the KIQ
process including the cost-effectiveness of the system and would send a
letter to General Scowcroft detailing this request.
Mr. Morell suggested that, in light of suggestions from the Murphy and
Rockefeller Commissions and the Congress, the Working Group consider
what its priority objectives should be.
General Scowcroft said that was a good idea and indicat
6 %A ed that a good place to
start would be the product evaluation project which was discussed today.
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Executive Secretary
NSCIC Working Group
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