NATIONAL SECRITY CONCIL INTELLIGENCE WORKING GROUP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00506R000100020004-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2004
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 10, 1975
• Content Type: MIN

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REVISED
10 June 1975
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL INTELLIGENCE WORKING GROUP
Minutes of the Thi enth Meeting
1400 Hours, Q May 1975
White House Situation Room
Chairman: Lt. Gen. Samuel V. Wilson, D/DCI/IC
Members present: Mr. Leslie H. Brown, Department of State
(representing Mr. George S. Vest, Director,
Bureau of Politico -Military Affairs)
Mr. Robert Ellsworth, Assistant Secretary
of Defense (International Security Affairs)
Mr. Foster Collins, Department of Treasury
(representing Mr. William N. Morell, Special
Assistant to the Secretary on National Security
RADM Robert P. Hilton, JCS (representing
Lt. Gen. John H. Elder, J-5, Plans and Policy)
Mr. Richard Ober, NSC Staff, , Director for
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CIA SALT Support Staff
Others present: Mr. Anthony H. Cordesman, with Mr. Ellsworth
RADM Donald 'Harvey, with RADM Hilton
Captain Gerald N. Dyer, with RADM Hilton
Agenda Item 1: Approval of Minutes
1. The minutes of the 12 March Working Group meeting were
approved.
Agenda Item 2? SALT Briefing
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Intelligence Coordination
gave a presentation on Monitoring a SALT
Agreement, at the TS level. A summary of members' comments
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is being furnished to him and to the NIO for Strategic Programs. The
briefing was in response to a recommendation by Mr. Ellsworth.
General Wilson suggested that future meetings of the Working Group
regularly include high interest presentations.
Agenda Item 3: Old Business
3. General Wilson indicated that the substantive intelligence
Objectives, now in front of the DCI, will be passed back through the
NSCIC Working Group to NSCIC in a few days. He said that his staff
is still developing a paper on the subject of the explicit statement
of uncertainties in intelligence documents. Meanwhile, he considers
it healthy simply to have it known that the Working Group is concerning
itself with this problem. With regard to RADM Hilton's recommenda-
tion for Terms of Reference for the NSCIC Working Group, General
Wilson said his staff would draft and distribute Terms of Reference
for Working Group member comments prior to the next meeting. In
response to interest expressed by Mr. Morell, General Wilson gave
a brief overview of
Agenda Item 4: Mayaguez Briefing
4. General Wilson briefed the Working Group on the role of the
Community in the Mayaguez incident. Essentially no part of the
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Community issued prior warning, though there had been prior
incidents. Moreover the Hydrographic Office of the Defense Mapping
Agency, which is responsible for issuing maritime advisories, is
not linked to the Community. In addition,
delayed in dissemination by various operations centers, partly
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seemed "suspect, " and partly
because of an implicit assumption that the US would not react and
that therefore time was not urgent. NOIWON was not used because
"the button was not luminescent enough. " Basically the operations
and intelligence functions were not in dialogue on this problem.
Perhaps part of the problem also is that some of the operations
officers are too junior. Al: any rate, General Wilson declared,
this problem is not going to happen again "on my watch. " General
Wilson added that he was instituting a practice of NOIWON "once
per watch" and intended to host periodic gatherings of intelligence
officers and operations center personnel.
5. Mr. Brown noted that the operator-analyst dialogue is likely
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to be delayed on because of "classification problems. " He
also expressed some puzzlement as to how consumers could help to
resolve the type of problem posed by the Mayaguez affair. It is
one thing for consumers to say in general terms that this sort of
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problem should not arise; it is quite another thing to expect consumers
to develop the technical means needed to fix the problem aea.
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6. RADM Hilton said that in the Pentagon any
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normally be disseminated to both NMIC and NMCC. He wanted to
ensure that in connection with the Mayaguez the IC Staff had talked
to NMCC. General Wilson assured him that had been done.
7. Mr. Ober said that the Mayaguez post-mortem might be a
useful item to distribute to NSCIC principals for information and
that the best way to do this would be through the NSCIC Working
Group so that they could staff it. General Wilson agreed that it
might, at least in principle. Mr. Ellsworth said that at a minimum
the Working Group should get the final document, and also copies
of the post-mortem on the 1.973 Arab-Israeli war. General Wilson
promised both.
Agenda Item 5: Information Documents
8. There were several comments by members of the Working
Group on papers prepared by the IC Staff, "The DCI's Family of
National Intelligence Guidance Documents, " and "The Intelligence
Community's Major Products, Production Elements and Points of
Contact for Consumers. " Mr. Ellsworth said the "Family" was a
good effort, but he for one would like to know more about who writes,
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who contributes to, and who reviews the documents which comprise
it. General Wilson promised a memorandum to Mr. Ellsworth on
this subject.
9. Both Mr. Ellsworth and Mr. Collins raised the question of
the possible role of the Working Group in formulating these guidance
documents. Mr. Ellsworth commented that if we (consumers) were
not willing to take the time to focus on these opportunities to state
consumer preferences, then we had no right to criticize the
Community's performance later. General Wilson said Mr. Ellsworth's
point was well worth noting.
10. Mr. Ober and Mr. Brown also expressed concern at the
lack of consumer input. Mr. Ober stressed that because the schedule
for drawing up guidance documents, such as the KIQs, kept slipping,
the time allowed for consumers to register their views was need-
lessly abbreviated. Mr. Brown said that more important than the
KIQs, which were often too general, were the end products; consumers
should have some way of reviewing or commenting on the end product
from a qualitative standpoint. General Wilson promised to express
this concern to the DCI or the NIOs. RADM Hilton promised a paper
dealing with the need to relate the guidance documents to the budget
cycle. Mr. Collins noted that Treasury had the opportunity for
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input during the USIB review, although he also noted that he sometimes
had trouble getting Treasury to provide comments.
11. With regard to the "Major Products" paper, both Mr. Ellsworth
and Mr. Brown said it was excellent. Mr. Ellsworth recommended
that it be circulated to users as a finished product and periodically
updated. He advised the adding of a section advising users on the
proper channel for requesting such documents; otherwise too many
consumers would be burdening the producing branches with such
requests. Mr. Brown said he knew over 100 desk officers at State
who ought to have this document. Mr. Collins said he would provide
a page on Treasury products for the revised paper. RADM Hilton
and RADM Harvey raised the possibility of including some NSA
products. General Wilson promised to issue the document as an
IC Staff product.
Agenda Item 6: Perspectives
12. Both Mr. Ellsworth and Mr. Collins tabled written
comments on the draft Perspectives. A package of these comments
will be presented to the NICs to assist them in completing the
revision of the Perspectives.
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Agenda Item 7: Arab-Israeli Package
13. General Wilson gave a brief recapitulation of the "jagged
line" of intelligence estimating during the period February through
April 1975--i. e. , on the rapidly changing assessments of whether
there would be war or no war in the Middle East. Mr. Collins
suggested that too many estimates are given "off-the-cuff. "
Perhaps the problem could be overcome by excluding estimative
judgments from daily intelligence publications and by having more
frequent, fully coordinated interagency estimates. Mr. Ober said
that current publications should make some sort of estimates; too
often, in his view, current articles were no more than a "rehash"
of cables. On this particular problem, Mr. Ober said there probably
should have been a revision of SNIE 30-1-75, "Next Steps in the
Middle East, " disseminated to the same people who got the original
SNIE. Instead, a Memorandum to Holders had been produced which
only went to a few people, and that was unfortunate since the
Memorandum substantially altered the principal judgments of the
SNIE. Mr. Ellsworth tabled comments on the Strategy Reports
for KIQs 36 and 37 (which had been circulated to the Working Group
in advance) and Mr. Ober promised comments on these reports
before the next meeting. Mr. Ellsworth said that he hoped at some
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point to hear a discussion on the draft NIAM on Arab-Israeli military
capabilities, with particular attention to the identified deficiencies in
military analysis.
There was general agreement to convene the Working Group at closer
intervals than the two months' interval between the Twelfth and
Thirteenth meetings. The meeting adjourned at 1600 hours.
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Executive Secretary
NSCIC Working Group
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