Expected Major Requirements for New or Different Intelligence to the Near - to Mid-Term Future

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00506R000100050021-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 30, 2001
• Sequence Number: 21
• Content Type: REPORT

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CONSUMER NEEDS. DIA DECLASSIFICATION/RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS ON FILE
Action project
Expected Major, Requirements for New or Different
Intelligence in the Near- to Mid-Term Future
This study will seek to identify anticipated changes in the
political/ economic /milita:ry situation throughout the world over
the next five. years. which are likely to be of such increased signi-
ficance in the determination of U. S. foreign and security policy
that they will have a major impact on the intelligence needs of
senior-level intelligence consumers. The study will attempt to
identify political, economic and military developments which are
considered likely to be so important to the United States as to
markedly affect the priority attaching to the related intelligence.
Such identification would.provide basis for the necessary planning
actions within the intelligence community.
Whether the United States will have need for increasing
amounts, and perhaps new types,. of economic, financial and
commercial intelligence as support for policy determination and
international negotiations will be an important area of investigation.
Another will be inquiry as to whether new and perhaps different types
of political/military confrontations can be expected in areas where
policy interests of the U. S, , USSR and PRC overlap importantly.
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Since this,
.project is intended to provide guidance for the
intelligence community from its major consumers, it is considered
the study should be conducted, at the policy-making level of the
government.
The Chairman, NSCIC Working 'Group will request the
Chairman of the NSCIC to designate the director of this project and
will suggest that the project leader should determine the composi-
tion of his group,
Upon completion of the guidance study, it is expected that a
follow-on study effort will be established within the intelligence
community to assess the capabilities of intelligence production
organizations to respond to the projected changes in the intelligence
needs of U. S. policy makers and to prepare appropriate recom.
1
mendations for consideration by the DCI.
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CONSUMER NEEDS
Action project
Review of the Supplement to DCID 1/2, "U.S.
Intelligence Objectives and Priorities"
The DCI will forward a copy of the new DCID 1/2 and its
Supplement, "U. S. Intelligence Objectives and Priorities", to
each member of the NSCIC with a request for comments indicating
the extent to which the list of objectives and their assigned
priorities, by country, properly reflect his consumer needs. It
is expected that each member of the NSCIC Working Group who
does not represent an intelligence organization will be responsible
for preparation of the response from his NSCIC principal.
The D/DCI/NIPE will assemble and analyze the responses
and submit appropriate. comments and -recommendations for NSCIC
Working Group can-si&iration.
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CONSUMER NEEDS
Action project
Survey of Consumer Reaction to Intelligence Products
This study will use questionnaires to survey consumer reactions
to the present scope, quality, timeliness and usefulness of designated
U. S. intelligence products, and to identify any specific areas of
dissatisfaction on which corrective action is indicated.
The questionnaire will be developed and the survey conducted
by a task group, chairman of which will be' designated by the D/DCI/
NIPE, with -representation from all NSCIC Working Group agencies.
Results of the survey will be submitted to the NSCIC Working
Group for consideration, and for the preparation of recommendations
to the NSCIC as appropriate.:,
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PRODUCT EVALUATION'
'Action project
Review of the NIE-11 Series
This study will i"evi.ew the responsiveness of the present
NIE-11 series to the needs of high level consumers in order to
provide guidance to the intelligence community for the 'NIE-11
publications to be prepared during calendar year 1972. Specific
consideration will be given to;
NIE-11-3 Soviet Strategic Defense
NIE-11-8 ? Soviet Forces for Intercontinental Attack
NIE-11-10 Uses of Soviet Military Power in Distant
Areas
NIE-1.1=14 Warsaw Pact Forces for Operations in Eurasia
In response to requests from the National Security Council staff, the
Office of National Estimates during 1971 markedly changed the format
and content of these NIE-11 products,. one result of which was that the
:documents became much more voluminous.
A feedback from top level
consumers would provide valuable guidance for all analysts involved
in the production of the NIE-11 documents.
The study will be conducted by an ad hoc task group under the
chairmanship of the Chief, NSC Net Assessment Group.
Results of the review will be submitted to the NSCIC Working
Group for its consideration,,
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PRODUCT EVALUATION
Action Project
Intelligence Support for SALT Negotiations
This study will evaluate the manner and effectiveness with which
intelligence is responding to the needs of U. S. policy makers and
negotiators involved in the SALT negotiations. This will involve a
review of the intelligence needs which have been expressed to intelli-
gence agencies and the channels used, the types of intelligence
products involved and the channels by which responses have been
provided,.: and the adequacy of intelligence inputs both to expressed
needs and to any anticipated needs on which intelligence responded
on an initiative basis. Part of the problem will be to determine
whether lessons learned and techniques and methodologies applied
in the provision of intelligence for the SALT negotiations can apply
to intelligence support for future international negotiations in other
subject areas.
The study will be conducted by an ad hoc task group under the
chairmanship of the Chief, NSC Net Assessment Group.
Results of the review will bo.submitted to the NSCIC Working
Group for its cons1diration..
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PRODUCT EVALUATION
Action project
Case Study of U. S. Intelligence Reaction to a Political-
Military Crisis;: The India/Pakistan Conflict of 1971
This study will examine lessons to be learned from the output
of U. S. intelligence relating to the India/Pakistan crisis as it
evolved in 1971 and the responsiveness of this intelligence to the
needs of U. S. policy makers. Facets of the problem to be investigated
include: How intelligence needs wer.e expressed and what they were;
the extent to which unexpressed needs were anticipated; key U. S.
decisions which were involved; the availability of intelligence bearing
on U. S. alternatives, and subject areas in.which intelligence was
adequate or inadequate. Overall, the study.will assess the value of
the intelligence product in providing useful warning of the situation
and effective support for the management of U. S. decisions and
actions during these. situations. The intelligence product will be
analyzed to determine the, extent to which it was timely, complete,
understandable and credible. Since this will be an ex-post-facto
examination, the objective will be to derive lessons which are
.considered applicable to future periods of international tension.
The study will. be conducted by an ad hoc task group under the
chairmanship of the Chief, NSC Net Assessment Group.
Results of the review will be submitted to the NSCIC Working
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Group for its consideration.
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PRODUCT EVALUATION
Action project
Evaluation Foram for Intelligence Products
This project will involve the development and use of an
evaluation form which intelligence producers would forward to
NSCIC members along with their copies of each major product--
e. g. , NIEs, SNIEs, intelligence annexes to NSSMs and important
Intelligence Memoranda-..to solicit the NSCIC member's views as
to the adequacy of the product for his needs. The feedback comments
would be reviewed by the D/DCI/NIPS and forwarded to appropriate
.production elements of the intelligence community. It is expected
that in some instances, when problems dealt with in the intelligence
paper are under active policy consideration, prompt receipt of the
evaluation responses will enable amendment of the intelligence product
in time to enhance its impact on policy considerations.
The evaluation form will be reviewed and perhaps given a trial
test by the NSCIC Working Group. The form will be developed by an
ad hoc task group, chairrnan of which will be designated by the
D/DCI/NIPZ,,.
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PRODUCTION IMPROVEMENT
Action project
Resources Devoted to Production by the U. S.
Intelligence Com.munit
This study will assertible an information base, including data
from the Consolidated Intelligence Resources Information System
(CIRIS) as to the resources: being allocated to production by producing
activity and target, and. will develop a description of the production
effort of each major intelligence organization, including a. bibliography
of products. The: study will provide a common statistical frame of
reference, identifying production elements of the intelligence
community and. indicating their levels of effort in geographic and
topical terms. It is expected this study will provide a common base
for further, more detailed studies of particular elements of the
production process, and for future NSCIC discussions of the
"producer world".
The D/DCI/NIPE will be responsible for conduct of this study
and for.its' presentation, along with such recommendations for further
actions as are appropriate.
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PRODUCTION IMPROVEMENT
Action project
Survey of the Intelligence Analyst Situation
This study will survey the strength and composition of the
analyst force involved in intelligence production. Grade levels,
experience levels, work environments, opportunities for advance-
ment, means for eliminating "dead wood", analyst techniques and
methodologies, the availability of computer support, and adequacy
of analyst guidance. will be- among the aspects examined. It is
intended that this study respond to the charge in the President's
memorandum of 5 November 1971 that "a determined effort be made
to upgrade analyst personnel and analysis methods" and that "more
rewarding careers for intelligence analysts, including the opportu-
nity to reach high salary levels while remaining analysts, should be
considered".
The study will be conducted by an ad hoc task group, chairman
of which will be designated, by the D/DCI/NIPE, with representation
from all NSCIC Working Group agencies.
Recommendations. resulting from the study will be submitted -
to the NSCIC Working Group for consideration.
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PRODUCTION IMPROVEMENT
Action project
Research and Development Relating to Intelligence
Production
This project will assess the requirement for and the feasibility
of a research and development program specifically focused on efforts
to upgrade analytical methodologies, It will respond to the comment
in the President's memorandum of 5 November 1971 that "It seems
desirable. . that a determiirned effort be made to upgrade analysis
personnel and analysis methods". The study will survey recent and
current R&D efforts applicable to the intelligence function, and will
investigate the potentialities of a research program which addresses
analytical methods and techniques, related training, and machine
applications.
The study will be conducted by an ad hoc group, the chairman
of which will be designated by the D/DCI/NIPE, with representation
from all primary production organizations of the intelligence community. '
l-t~rec>nn niic1,~I;~.c-n~ retulting from the study will be eubrnitted to
the DCI and, as appropriate, provided to the NSCIC Working Group
for its consideration.
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PRODUCTION IMPROVEMENT
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Action project
Intelligence Support for U. S. International
Economic, Financial and Commercial Policies
This study will examine the analyst resource and production
capabilities available to support what are expected to be increasing
high-level consumer needs for intelligence support for the establish-
ment of national policies relating to international economic, financial
and commercial developments. Data will be required on inputs such
as (1) the source of need statements, (2) the sources of data, (3)
data base organization, (4), availability of analyst personnel and
the suitability of their talents for the changing problem areas, (5)
both machine and manual analytical aids, (6) present production loads,
(7) priority criteria, and (8) consumer relationships.
The study will be conducted by an ad hoc task ,group, chairman
of which will be designated by the D/DCI/NIPE, with membership
from the involved. production components.
Recommendations resulting from the study will be submitted,
as appropriate, to the DCI and to the NSCIC Working Group for its
consideration.
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PRODUCTION IMPROVEMENT
Action project
China as an Intelligence Research and Production Target
This study will examine the extent to which the intelligence
community is focusing attention on development of an improved
understanding of the People's Republic of China in anticipation of
increased consumer interest in China. The study would be a survey
of the analyst resources and production capabilities which U. S.
intelligence is devoting to developing a base for improved under-
standing of the decision making process and of the economic and
political, as well as military, factors affecting basic elements of
China's policy.
The study will be conducted by a task group, chairman of
which will be designated by the D/DCI/NIPE, with representation
from all NSCIC Working Group agencies.
Recommendations relating to future product improvement
will be submitted to the ' NSCIC Working Group for consideration.
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NSCIC WORKING GROUP AGENDA SUGGESTIONS
Report on consumer statements of needs -'commentary.
Proposed work program for NSCIC to sanction.
Agenda Outline
Description of consumer/producer interface, problems, attempts
lt0-~
r,+ "' G1 carried out by producers).
d
vz Work Program Items
(Should have preface -including statement of NSCIC goals, role of working
group in assisting, proposed style of work, etc..)
/-P 5~
2;7 ?pr Itemneme:
V~bS @- Study of how current system works, how needs are opr anicated
25X1A9
and perceived. Efforts to do a better job - ~. What
are the problems? What needs to be done to improve the situation?
Study of implications of changing political-military situation for
intelligence needs of top level consumers.
Major area; may be:
. Economic, financial, commercial
Increased political-military crises in areas of Soviet-U. S. overlap.
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-- Product evaluation
(Promote general structure of types of estimates, policy process
areas, etc.)
NSSM case status
Political-Military crisis - U. S. direct involvement - India/Pak
Economic, financial, commercial
(What is really needed - what decisions, what negotiations, etc. )
SALT negotiations - intelligence support
-- Survey of producers past and current efforts to improve product,
including evaluation of those efforts.
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VW NUPF
Following are my thoughts on tha what kind of agenda Mr. Tweedy
should propose for the next NSCIC Working Group meeting;
1. We have not yet devised a way of eliciting tho~.aghtful comment
from the consumers of what is (or may be) wrong with the intelligence
product. Unless such comment is received, via the questionnaire
method, or via Marshall and Kissinger, we will have to work on
ways of improving the product out of the heads of people in the
intelligence community itself.
2. There are three approaches to doing the latter as conducted
under your aegis. These are:
A. Invite the community to conduct a skull session on self-
improvement. While this might not sound promising, it
conceivably could be done by persuading the DCI to ask
the USIB membership to offer their opinions on what is
wrong with the national intelligence product. One might
in this way come up with some ideas for improvement which
could then be studied by your group for recommendations
to the DCI.
B. Follow Wally's ideas about undertaking an analysis of
the production process with the twin hopes that we can:
1) come up with some flaws in the way things are being
done; and 2) persuade the producers to change their
ways accordingly,, I am quite skeptical about this idea
bearing fruit in the foreseeable future and certainly not
in the near future. In particular, I see no hose that
we can devise a Comphehensi ve Product Improvement Program
that we can talk about intelligently at the next
NSCIC Working Group meeting.
C. We can ourselves (your group) try to describe systematically
what we think is wrong with the intelligence product with
the purpose of presenting these notions to the Working Group
for their concurrence. If the Working Group agrees that
., ti, .,r al
our impressions are rorrec+ we would ha
e
ve
Approvel is e 9) QYi' Ad Oeffi% ms rahel.
U9 , c s auld help
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smoke out their ideas on what is wrong.
3. I recommend approach C -- a Working Group "think session"
on intelligence product; shortcomings. Following are my ideas
as a starter for what should be said:
Intelligence is too crisis oriented and suffers, consequent
from being too shallow. The solution is to divert more
analytical effort to exposing long-term trdnds.
Intelligence does not look backward sufficiently to
properly interpret where we are now. There should be
retrospective papers (perhaps estimates) on such broad
topics as:
The evolution of world communism since VdII.
The effectiveness of US Soviet and Chinese
military and exonomic aid programs.
The role of nationalism worldwide t as a
deterrent to international ideologies.
-- Intelligence should make more and better alternative
projections of world problems such as:
Kkt What would happen if there were a Sino-Soviet
war.
What wo.ild happen if the US reduced its NATO
contingent.
What would happen if the Soviets established
a military presence in India.
What would hapr)en if much of Latin America
went the way of Chile.
What world happen if the US withdrew from
competition with China and the USSR in Africa.
Intelligence should follow thDough with military contingenc3
estimates covering the contingencJres the US buys military
forces for:
What would a strategic nuclear exchange with the
USSR be like?
What would a NATO-Warsaw Pact war be like?
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21 January 1972
The attached is my first draft of option for considera-
tion at Monday's meeting. As you will note it includes most
of the approaches in my earlier papers integrated into a
single and complete program paper which Mr. Tweedy can send
to NSCIC WG members as being the Agenda item for the next
NSCIC WG Meeting.
mim
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21 January 1972
SUBJECT: Suggested Initial Program Outline for NSCIC WG
A. NSCIC has set up the NSCIC WG to submit a "work program" or plan
of action for the on going deliberation of NSCIC in support of its mission as stated
in the 5 Nov. 1971 Presidential
B. NSCIC WG has conducted its initial meeting and discussed various aspects
of the problem.
C. As a result, the Chairman NSCIC WG is submitting the following initial
plan of action. 4a +h,Q ws cie r,,iq..
II. Discussion
There are three key elements to the NSCIC WG area of consideration:
A. Consumer Need
The problem here can be simply stated as one of improving the communication
of consumer needs to the intelligence community and the feedback expression of how
intelligence sees consumer needs. The problem can further be divided into the generalized
and specific statement of need and the degree of correlation between them.
a. The primary statement of generalized need is an output of the In-
telligence Community manifest in DCID 1/2 "National Objectives and Priorities."
b. At a higher level of aggregation the Intelligence Community has been
experimenting with a method and model in which both consumer and intelligence
views of needs may be registered and statistically compared with respect to concensus
and variance. e.g., DIA's Project ALPHA.
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The primary purpose of generalized need statement is to provide in-
telligence with overall guidance as to consumer's views of the relative value of
those needs across the entire spectrum of geopdolitical and topical concerns to
which intelligence must relate its operations and resources.
A2. Specific Needs
Dr. Kissenger asked each Department to prepare a statement of what
it's departmental requirements are. A review of the inputs and the request by
Chairman NSCIC makes it evident that greater definition of the problem is required
to make such an input meaningful and useable.
On the generalized requirement level, DCID 1/2 represents such a
statement. On the level of specific Departmental Requirements, the current
system of expression is to?complex to provide for a useful input for further NSCIC
14
exploitation. (See Annex A, "The Intelligence Requirements Process at State.")
It is recognized that some common system of consumer requirements
should be established which identifies specific needs and relates them to specific
consumers in terms of variables relating to time, geopolitical and topical area, and
the specific intelligence producer's tasked to respond. The purpose of such a system
would be to supply intelligence management with explicit information and analysis
as to the demands upon the community production function and managements
ability to meet them. This information can also be a basic input to an overall intel-
ligence management information system.
The Presidential Directive states that the Net Assessment Group of the
WSC Staff is responsible for reviewing and evaluating all intelligence products.
This is a new function and requires the selection of an initial product area
and development of both the study organization and study approach and methods.
Specific product evaluation also includes the explicit request for product since the
product can only be meaningfully evaluated in terms of what was requested.
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Finally, the method of feeding back the actual product evaluation to the
producer and the follow-up action which' results is an essential part of this subject
if the loop is to be a closed one.
131. Initial Product Selection
Since the NSCIC is geared to the level of intelligence inputs to the
National Security Study Memorandum, this appears to be the most profitable
initial point to start the explicit process of "product evaluation".
B2. A Product Evaluation Program
Once the initial approach and techniques have been worked out by the
NSCIC WG and the head of the NSC Staff Net Assessment Group, a Product
Evaluation program can be designed and extended to cover selected NSSMS, HIES,
and other products at the national level.
C. Production Improvement
The selection of a stariting point in developing the comprehensive Product
Improvement Program, called for in the President's Directive requires a frame of
reference and an initial point of departure. The President's memorandum alluded to
five specific instances where improvement appeared called for in the intelligence
production function:
(1) "that resources devoted to analysis and production should increase."
(2) "that a determined effort be made to upgrade analysis personnel."
(3) Se.. (2) "and analysis methods."
(4) "more rewarding careers for intelligence analysts."
(5) "including the opportunity to reach high salary levels while remaining
analysts."
It is apparent that the scope of the above mentioned instances requires
the comprehensive study program called for in order to determine the explicit
conditions associated with the above mentioned instances and the resultant recom-
mendations and implementing actions which would be required.
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Ill. The Suggested Initial Program
A. Consumer Need
1. NSCIC (WG) Project I DCID 1/2 Review & Approval
USIB has recently approved DCID 1/2 "National Intelligence Objectives
and Priorities." It is recommended that the NSCIC WG members who have not
reviewed this before do so, and consider our sending it (and briefing) to NSCIC
for their review, comment, and approval. This would serve the purpose of having
NSCIC approval of the Intelligence Community view of consumer objectives and
priorities as amended (if occasioned) by NSCIC. (See Annex B "NSCIC 1/2,
National Intelligence Objectives and Priorities.").
Project - WG-1 Action
1. Review by NSCIC WG.
2. Submission to NSCIC
3. DCI memo to Intelligence Community regarding NSCIC Action.
2. NSCIC (WG) Project II: Project ALPHA Experimental Study
DIA Project "ALPHA" is both a method and a model in which individual
views are registered as to the relative value of needs within a specific geopolitical
and topical (substantive) matrix. The statistical summations of multiple inputs
results in views of consensus and variance. Defense consumers plan to participate
in a Project "ALPHA" exercize on January 27, 1972, (See Annex C, "Preliminary
Information for Intelligence Users Panel, ALPHA Exercize Pretest."
Phase I of NSCIC Project I I will extend the ALPHA exercize to "Non-
Defense Consumers Group". This data will be analyzed along with the Defense
Data and the study submitted to NSCIC WG.
Phase 11 will extend the ALPHA exercize to a Community Wide In-
telligence Manager and Producer Group. This data will be analyzed compared to
the Phase I results and the study submitted to NSCIC WG.
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Phase I I I will be the preparation of the findings by NSCIC WG for
NSCIC. Review and Comment.
Project WG-2: Action
1. Phases I & II: DOD with DCI/NIPE Support.
2. Phase III: NSCIC WG Chairman.
3. NSCIC (WG) Project I I I - Specific Needs Study
This project would set up an ad hoc Working Group of key consumers
and intelligence producers to investigate the practicality of setting up a common
and standard system of identifying specific consumer requests for intelligence
products. The ad hoc study group terms of reference would be written by the
Group and submitted to NSCIC WG for approval prior to study initiation.
Project NSCIC WG - I I I Action:
1. Chairman NSCIC WI;
B. Product Evaluation
1. NSCIC (WG) Proiect: IV: Initial Product Evaluation
As a result of a survey conducted by the Chairman NSCIC WG and the
Director, NSC Staff Net Assessments Group of the NSSM's with major input de-
mands upon the Intelligence Production Community, it was decided to select the
Intelligence Input to NSSM - 69 "IUS Nuclear Policy in Asia" as the subject of the
first NAG Product Evaluation. In addition to offering several advantages because
of the subject and the nature of the two explicit intelligence papers prepared for
the NSSM Group, it will also allow for a possible concurrent product evaluation of
selected Series 13 National Intelligence Estimates.
The Product Evaluation will be prepared by an Ad Hoc Group under the
chairmanship of the Director NAG.
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The Director NAG will be responsible for selection of Ad Hoc group
membership, Study Terms of Reference, Study Methodology and the submission
of the study to NSCIC WG for review and consideration of an NSCIC action
preparation.
NSCIC (WG) Project IV Action
Director, NAG/NSCS
Production Improvement
The Product Improvement projects are designed to provide a base for
the evolvement of a comprehensive product improvement program. They are also
designed to provide the NSCIC (WG) with some basic information and data about
the Intelligence Production function which may be used by NSCIC.
1. NSCIC WG Project: VI: DIAGNOSTIC STUDY of the Community
Production Effort.
This study will provide a common statistical frame of reference
explicitly identifying community production units and showing their relative
efforts in terms of geopolitical and topical subjects. Thus, it will in fact provide
a common base for future NSCIC discussions of the Producer world.
NSCIC Project VI Action:
Chairman, WG (NIPE/Staff)
2. NSCIC WG Project: VII:
The production related factors in the Presidential directive mentioned
(see above Product Discussion: Improvement p. 3) covers the entire production
function in terms of institution, product types, and geopolitical & topical orientation.
Thus, the proposed study will take a discrete part of the producer's
world which deals with a discrete geo-political/topical subject and submit it to
analysis concentrating on those areas emphasized in the Presidents Directive.
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The subject of the Proposed Study will be "The Soviet Ballistic
Missile Program."
The Study will be divided into two parts which will be done concurrently.
Part I will be an explicit analysis of the Production process in key community
production organizations which are primarily concerned with the subject. Specific
data would be gathered on inputs by source, data base organization (automated and
manual files), analysis personnel (all qualitative aspects), analytical aids (machine
and manual) analyst-file relationship, output preparation, production load factors,
(periodic and non-periodic), priority criteria, and consumer relationship, if any.
Input and output measurements would be looked for or attempted. The objective
of Part I will be to analyze the current production capability and those variables
of input and output which essentially relate to the analyst and his work environment
in order to recommend appropriate actions.
Part II of the study will be done concurrently with Part I. Part I I will
be designed to deal with analysis of the subject area product itself and the analytical
methods and techniques used. Part 11 will also be designed to look at the subject
itself over time as expressed in various modes of output.
Study Organization
Part I and Part I I will each be set up under a Project Leader and an
Ad Hoc Study Group. When required, community production activities will be
tasked to provide inputs or subject to survey by the study teams.
NSCIC WG Project VII Action..
Part I : Chairman NSCIC WG
Part II: Director, NAGJNSCS
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 25X1 A9
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W W.
'3UBJLCT: NSCID V,,ORKING GROUP AGENDA
The purpose of the (suggested) agenda for this meeting is to bring
such items to the Working Group for consideration which will result in
an initial "work program" or plan of action for NSCIC consideration.
The agenda attempts to cope with both the consumbe need and product
evaluation areas as an initial concern. It also attempts to include
recent suggestions by the WG members.
Consumer Need
The agenda items related to consumer needs cover both general and
specific need statements.
The primary purpose of the general need or objectives statement is to
provide intelligence with overall gauidance as to the consumers view of the
relative value of his needs across the entire geopolitical and topical
spectrum. Such guidance is used by Intelligence managers as an input to
planning, programming and evaluation, e.g., DCID 1/2.
The primary purpose of specific consumer need recording is to have a
specific record of who wants what and when. The analysis of this record
on both a current and periodic basis can serve to indicate need change
characteristics. B current need asshssment technique can also result
in valuable feedback queries to the consumer and a better consumer requirement.l>
item 1
USIB has recently approved DCID 1/2
National Intelligence Objectives
and Priorities." it is recortmended that the NSCIC VG members who have not
reviewed this before do soI to NSCIC for heir review,
comment, and approval. This would serve the purpose of having consumer
approval of the Intelligence Community view of consumer objectives and priorities.
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DIA Project "ALPHA" is both a method and a model in which individual views
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are registered as to the relative value of needs within a specific geopolitical
and topical (substantive) matrix. The statistical summations of multiple
inputs results in ec Sens` vi and variance. Defense consumers plan to
participate in a Project "ALPHA" exercize on January 27, 1972.
Should we set up an exersize for non-Defense consumers and join
this data? The resulting data would provide us with both a consensus
and ooW evidence of variance between Defense and non-Defense consumer
views if such exists.
If we do this, we can present the results to NSCIC for their review
and comment. Finally, we might also consider setting up an ALPHA for key
intelligence producers and possibly other intelligence seniors. The results
of this could be analyzed in comparison to the consumer result and differences
noted.
Item 3
Does the NSCIC Working Group wish to set up a program to record and
review selected consumer requests (e.g. NSC and Treasury Department) over
the coming year? The purpose of such a program would be
ate to provide current awareness of requests
b) to experiment with a query feedback system to consumers 1?~
c) to provide a pilot program for a consumer-wide effort, if
this experience proves worthwhile.
d) to provide an explicit aggregation of consumer need expressions
which can be analytically compared to the "judgemental" projections found
in the DCID and ALPHA modes.
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jJ A query feedback system to consumers would take the form of further
questions related to the re:auirementI such as problems associated with the
need, depth of analysis required) and specifies with respect to data detail,
format, and the handling of uncertainty.
Product Evaluation
The Net Assessment Group of the NSC Staff is responsible for
reviewing and evaluating all intelligence products. The NSCIC Working
Group, I am sure, wishes to do everything it can to assist Mr. Marshall
in setting up a program to effect this review and evaluation. Whatever
Mr. Marshall does in Product Evaluation, it is clear that this will be
the initial stimulus to the development of a comprehensive effort in kJax
intelligence product improvement called for in the President's directive.
However, before we can go any further in this area, it seems apparent
that we must hear from Mr. Marshall, which is Item 4 on our agenda.
Item 4
For example, does Mr. Marshall desire to conduct an e--qt post facto
product evaluation with respect to selected NSSM's and NIE6 completed in
the past year or so?
With respect to the future, does Mr. Marshall desire to establish
a list of scheduled products and undertake an on-going product evaluation
program with timely feedback so that intelligence inputs may be changed?
(This could be tied to Item 3 and the query feedback related to the original
requirement statement.)
Considering the size of the effort, how does Mr. Marshall 'WO7-
ha: vv-aq'
.the NSCIC Working Group in organizing consumer product evaluations.
Finally, how does Mr. Marshall view his role in the follow-up
activitSAY~~nitl~as%1 / aAg$`~Q~Q~@Qfl~~~~ 1 a7r
group of evaluations?
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Ex Post Facto Crises Analysis
I am distributing a copy of a memorandum sent to me by Dr. Hall
which proposes that the Working Group undertake a study of a past
crisis which answers a number of specific questions.
Item
Since Dr. Hall's memorandum is quite short, I suggest that we
read it and have a brief discussion and your immediate views. I suppose
we can call this area "event evaluation." It may well be that you will
desire to carry this item over to the next agenda, particularly with
respect to the "how" and "who" if you decide that we should undertake
this task.
Finally, I suggest that if the Working Group is capable of
responding to all of the items in this agenda, I believe we may
have an initial plan of action for NSCIC consideration.
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AGENDA TOPICS
1. NSCIC Working Group be briefed on DCID so everybody knows what
is in it and what the DCI is trying to do. This in preparation
for briefing by Thomas of NSCIC on DCID.
2. NSCIC Worki.:lg Group develop questionnaire for NSCIC members to
state their ideas on shortcomings and weak points in the
intelligence product. Covers reactions to estimates, timeliness,
adequ.cy by subject, by area, depth of coverage, amounts available,
etc.
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QUESTIONNAIRE; ON INADEQUACIES IN INTELLIGENCE
PRODUCT
1. Introduction: In con!iection with his responsibilities as
outlined in the revised NSCTDs and in response to the Presidential
directive of 15 November? the Director of Central Intelligence
desires that a survey of intelligence users be made to uncover
areas mi where improvements should be made in the substantive
intelligence product.
.666BRINgly, your candid opinions are sought
on the intelligence products which you receive. Specific questions
are asked and space is provided for any comments you might wish to
make. Our intent is to discover areas of dissatisfaction and
from there to seek ways of improving the usefulness of he
primary
intelligence product to you and the other/decision/ makers in the
security and foreign affairs echelons of the Government.
2. QUESTIONNAIRE you*
or are regularly available to
A. Products received. Check which products you personally receive.
-- President's Daily Brief
-- Current Intelligence Bulletin
National Estimates
CIA Mamm Intelligence Memoranda
Intelligence Annexes to NSSM's
Defense Intelligence Bulletin
NSA SIGINT Review
CIA Weekly
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B. User made of product
Publication Aids in Decision Making Background No Real Use
C. Opinions on product
importa;?t
Publication OK Lacks Depth Info not Timely Info not
D. Suggestions for Impfovement of Existing Products
Publication
E. Subject Coverage
-- Are the substantive areas in which you have an interest
adequately covered? Indicate where there are shortcomings.
(Include matrix with boxes blank)
Are there other subjects which you would like to see
covered.
-- Are there other countries which you would like to see
q coveered.
pprgpeciii" elEVi"q 99/C ftCal R~Pr. gagRR000100050021-7
G. Suggestions for new products (Solicit ideas for new production
re f f r%r + c'