MEXICO: THE NEW WAVE OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84S00552R000300020002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 26, 2011
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Directorate of
Intelligence
Mexico:
The New Wave
of Illegal Migration
An Intelligence Assessment
eonfidential
ALA 83-10096
June 1983
Copy 3 3 0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Intelligence
Mexico:
The New Wave
of Illegal Migration
and the National Intelligence Council.
the Office of African and Latin American Analysis. It
was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations
This assessment was prepared by
Division, ALA,
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, Middle American-Caribbean
Confidential
ALA 83-10096
June 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
Mexico:
The New Wave
of Illegal Migration
Key Judgments Economic problems and population pressures are combining to encourage
Information available unprecedented numbers of Mexicans to cross the US border illegally. We
as of 15 June 1983 expect as many as 1.5 million undocumented Mexicans to enter the United
was used in this report.
States during 1983 in search of jobs, compared with an estimated 800,000
to 1.1 million annually in recent years. Most of the new arrivals will return
to Mexico within six months, but some 300,000 probably will remain,
joining the 1.3-2.3 million Mexican illegals that we believe resided in the
United States on a semipermanent basis in 1982. We estimate that
remittances from Mexicans working illegally in the United States will total
$1.5-3.5 billion during 1983.
The severe economic dislocations that are largely responsible for the surge
have intensified a long-term response to the attractions of high US wages
and the problems of poverty in Mexico. Peso devaluations have nearly
tripled the, dollar's purchasing power in Mexico, unemployment is expand-
ing, and real wages at home are falling. In addition, for many years,
Mexicans have earned 10 or more times in the United States what they
could earn at home. This income supplement has maintained or boosted
migrants' living standards in Mexico even as economic conditions deterio-
rated in rural areas and urban job opportunities became scarce.
Survey data continue to indicate that the majority of illegals are from the
rural areas of eight north-central states. Nevertheless, a growing number
of urban Mexicans-primarily from depressed shantytowns ringing larger
cities-are joining the illegal migrant ranks.
Mexican illegal migrants fit primarily into one of two groups: long termers,
who have been in the United States illegally for a year or more, and
repeaters, who make periodic work trips but spend most of each year in
Mexico. According to academic studies, both long termers and repeaters
want to use savings from US earnings to supplement consumption and
eventually provide for upward mobility at home. The repeaters, however,
would be most vulnerable to restrictions on employment opportunities or
tighter controls on the border. Moreover, they account for the bulk of
worker remittances and directly affect Mexican labor market and con-
sumption trends.
Confidential
ALA 83-10096
June 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidennat
We see almost no chance that the current wave of Mexicans coming to the
United States will slow dramatically any time soon. We expect Mexico's
economy to remain depressed for the next two or three years. Even after
the economy recovers in the mid-to-late 1980s, we estimate that the
number of Mexican migrants will remain high because of demographic
pressures and a further widening in the gap between Mexican and US
wages.
Mexican Government officials view illegal migration and continuing access
to the US labor market as critical to the country's economic and social
well-being. Moreover, they believe there is little Washington can do to
fundamentally alter the pattern of Mexican migration. Nevertheless, they
believe that a tightening of controls on migrants as a result of reforming
US immigration laws would complicate bilateral relations.
Confidential iv
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Key Judgments
Dynamics of Illegal Migration
Long-Term Migrants
2
The Benefits and Costs of Migration
2
Factors in the Recent Surge
3
No End in Sight
4
A. Historic Illegal Migration Trends
B. An Approach to Counting Illegals
1. Mexico: Main Source of Illegal Migration
2. Mexico-United States: Border Apprehension
January 1982-May 1983
Mexico: Estimates of Illegal Aliens in the United States
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
Figure 1
Mexico: Main Source States of Illegal Aliens
/IY\ A -44
El Centro>Calif.
56,400 ~j
Chula Vista, Calif.
315,000
Baja \ y
California J,
Norte
Marta, Tex))
1 , 20.2,5A,_,
IT uscori, Ariz.
32,8006h
Jua3rez
B a California
Sur
1;101 "r(i
`J Clf/~ vca i7
Kilometers
United States
Gulf or Mexico
Meiico'
Distrito Federal
Micftoac8n )
Guerrero
Tabasco -
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Roo
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
Mexico:
The New Wave
of Illegal Migration
Dynamics of Illegal Migration
The rising illegal flow of Mexicans to the United
States is an intensification of a long-term response to
the attractions of high US wages and the problems of
poverty and lack of opportunity in Mexico. With
substantially higher wages and the steady demand for
low-cost labor in the United States over the past
century, Mexican workers have developed complex
networks to, provide information on jobs and housing
for illegal immigrants.' This pull from across the
border has been reinforced by the push of relative
deterioration in subsistence agriculture-the tradi-
tional livelihood of most illegals-and the rapid ex-
pansion of the work force. Since 1940 subsistence
farms have benefited substantially less from improved
farming techniques than commercial agricultural op-
erations and this has held down peasants' incomes and
exacerbated income inequalities. Additionally, Mexi-
co's unique ejido system-which gives peasants per-
petual usufruct 2 over a small plot but does not allow
them to sell the land-encourages work trips to the
United States to supplement income.
1942-64, and have a long tradition of migration to the
United States. Farm output per worker in the sending
states is much lower and rural population density is
much higher than in the five other states of northern
Mexico.
Other areas of Mexico are not yet major sources of
illegals. People from southern states have tended to
remain outside the illegal flow because of the distance
to the United States and the traditional culture that
ties the largely Indian population to their villages. In
the central region, Mexico City so far has exerted a
stronger pull than the United States, partly because of
social and cultural reasons.
Still, most illegals travel long distances before cross-
ing the border; the majority of them travel 500 miles
or more before reaching the United States. Tijuana-
the most popular jumpoff point for the United
States-is 1,000 miles from the geographic center of
the sending states. Ciudad Juarez-the second most
popular exit point for illegals-is more than 700 miles
from the residences of most of those who illegally
enter the United States from there.
Survey data continue to indicate that the majority of
illegals are from the rural areas of eight north-central
states. Data gathered in Mexico and the United
States show that most illegals still are landless rural
laborers or ejidatarios, although a growing number of
urban Mexicans-primarily from depressed shanty-
towns ringing larger cities-are beginning to cross the
border. The primary sending states include the six
agricultural states of Mexico's central north and the
two northern border states with the largest popula-
tions-Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon. These states
have large tracts in ejidos, were the source of most of
the participants in the bracero program that provided
temporary work in the United States for Mexicans in
High population growth provides a continuing pool of
illegal immigrants. Although the rate of population
increase has declined somewhat since 1970, the age
cohorts entering the labor force will remain large for
at least the next two decades. We expect the rate of
growth of the labor force to stay at about 4 percent
(excluding immigrants to Mexico from Central Amer-
ica) at least throughout the 1980s.
Characteristics of the Mexican Migrant
Most Mexican illegal immigrants fit into one of two
groups: those who make periodic work trips but spend
most of each year in Mexico and those who have been
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
in the United States illegally for a year or,more.
According to academic studies, members of both
groups want to use savings from US earnings to
supplement consumption and eventually provide for
upward mobility in Mexico. Men with longer continu-
ous experience in the United States tend to earn
higher wages than the temporary migrant; women
earn the least, on average.
Although the majority of Mexican illegals continue to
work in agriculture while in the United States, more
and more are finding their niche in services, industry,
construction, and commerce. Large numbers now
work in restaurants and hotels as dishwashers, kitchen
helpers, busboys, waiters, and clerks. Women largely
find work in hotels, domestic service, or in light
assembly operations.
Repeat Migrants
During recent years, we estimate that almost 1 mil-
lion Mexicans have made annual short-term illegal
work trips to the United States.' Those making these
trips are overwhelmingly young men. Data obtained
from apprehended Mexicans indicate that the average
illegal immigrant is a male in his late teens when
making his first of as many as five to 10 trips. The
average age at initial entry has dropped by several
years over the past decade. At the time of first entry,
the illegal is generally literate, unmarried, and has
had little experience outside of agriculture. Of those
who have made several trips, perhaps half are married
and support four or five dependents. Most migrants
have been recently employed and, considering such
migrating costs as smuggling fees of $300 to $500,
cannot be among the poorest.
Others also make annual trips to the United States. A
sizable, but unknown number are small landowners,
commercial farm laborers, and shopkeepers. They
tend to travel to the United States during slack
periods in their regular occupations or during reces-
sions at home. Recent academic studies indicate that
temporary workers earn $500 to $1,000 monthly, stay
an average of four to six months, and send home
about one-third of their earnings.
' See appendix B, An Approach to Counting Illegals.
Long-Term Migrants
Academic studies indicate that each year 15 to 30
percent of undocumented border-crossers plan to re-
main in the United States for a year or more before
returning home. By mid-1982 we estimate, on the
basis of a recent US Census Bureau study and our
own analysis of illegal migration trends, that 1.3-2.3
million Mexicans were in the United States on a
semipermanent basis. These long-term migrants, on
average, have higher levels of education and in most
cases either bring their families along or plan to send
for them. The study by the US Census Bureau
suggests that 40 percent of semipermanent immi-
grants are female and 20 percent are children under
15 years of age. Although academic studies show that
the majority of these migrants will return to Mexico
within three to 10 years, some-including many of the
children-will stay permanently. Because of the costs
of supporting their families who are in the United
States, members of this group remit a smaller share of
their income to Mexico than do the repeaters.
The economic incentives for migration to the United
States are substantial, but there are also concerns that
act to stem the flow somewhat. Today, the average
rural wage in Mexico is less than one-tenth that
earned by migratory farm workers in the United
States. Urban minimum wages in Mexico, although
about 40 percent above the rural rate, are still only a
fraction of what an illegal immigrant can earn here.
Previous experience in the United States sharply
reduces the psychological cost of migration. Statistics
on those apprehended show that almost all illegal
aliens have been to the United States before or have
close friends or relatives who have made the trip. A
great number of first-time illegal border-crossers had
relatives in the legal bracero program.
Among concerns that inhibit migration, fear of arrest
north of the border or of victimization by smugglers
undoubtedly affects many rural Mexicans. Other,
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
more educated rural Mexicans prefer to migrate to
Mexican cities rather, than go to the United States,
where white-collar jobs demand English-language
capabilities.
Factors in the Recent Surge
The dramatic upturn in illegal migration over the past
months is widely acknowledged in Mexico. Recently,
a Mexican congressional deputy reported to the legis-
lature's Foreign Relations Committee that the flow
had increased considerably and that professionals,
technicians, skilled workers, and craftsmen were now
among the migrants.
In the United States, soaring border apprehensions
attest to the surge. While we recognize that there is
no one-to-one relationship between apprehensions by
the US Border Patrol and the flow of illegals-that is,
the number of different individuals who successfully
cross the border to work in the United States-we
believe there is a close relationship. Apprehensions
increased substantially following Mexico's sharp de-
valuation and financial crisis in August 1982. During
August through December last year, border appre-
hensions were almost 20 percent above the same
period a year earlier. During January through April,
1983, apprehensions soared, up more than 45 percent
above the same period a year earlier. In May, the
Border Patrol apprehended 104,000 border-crossers,
58.2 percent above a year earlier. May's record
apprehensions marked the 10th consecutive time that
border arrests set alltime highs for a given month. If
the flow remains near this level-as* we expect-
border apprehensions in 1983 will total some 1.2
million.
Because of rising border apprehensions, we believe the
flow of illegal migrants will jump to 1.1-1.5 million
for 1983, compared with an estimated 0.9-1.1 million
last year.' Our estimate, based in part on a study of
the population and labor force of sending states, falls
on the low side of the current range of estimates made
by academics and journalists. If history is repeated,
and 15 to 30 percent of these border-crossers stay on
' See appendix B for our methodology of estimating numbers of
illegal migrants.
Figure 2
Mexico-United States: Border Apprehensions,
January 1982-May 1983
.. V
I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I 1 1
-20. J .F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M
1982 1983
in the United States this year, the number of illegal
semipermanent Mexicans will rise to 1.4-2.5 million.
We expect workers' remittances to Mexico to total
$1.5-3.5 billion this year; $1-3 billion from repeaters
and an additional $500 million from semipermanent
migrants.
Several new economic pressures have spurred the
current bulge. Mexico's sharp currency devaluations
substantially raised the peso value of the dollars that
the illegals earn in the United States. Even after
allowing for higher inflation in Mexico since the
devaluations, the dollar today buys nearly three times
as much in Mexico as it did in January of last year.
In addition, recent layoffs, falling real wages,-and
declining living standards are now becoming impor-
tant inducements for looking to the United States to
supplement incomes. Private-sector economists in
Mexico estimate that more than 2 million jobs have
been lost since mid-1982 and that unemployment is
i
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84S00552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
now in the 20- to 30-percent range. At the same time,
underemployment (part-time, low-paying, make-work
jobs)-which in recent years has stood at about 40
percent of the work force-is expected to surpass 50
percent this year. Moreover, Mexican Government
statistics and our calculations show that real wages
fell over 10 percent in 1982 and are likely to fall
another 10 to 20 percent this year. Because of lower
wages and falling imports and production, we esti-
mate personal consumption will fall by 7 to 15 percent
this year.
Problems in the agricultural sector last year added to
the flow of migrants. Production was cut deeply by
poor weather and sharply lower farm prices. Rainfall
was 30 percent below normal last year and 75 percent
below normal during the crucial months of June, July,
August, and September. The fall harvest of corn, the
peasants' principal staple and cash crop, fell 40
percent, while all grains and oilseed production de-
clined 25 percent. As rural incomes plunged over the
course of 1982, farmers' incentives to supplement
incomes outside of farming increased. The concurrent
Mexican industrial recession has also encouraged
peasants to turn to the US labor market.
We see almost no chance that the new wave of
Mexican migration will slow dramatically any time
soon. Because of Mexico's steep economic slide thus
far in 1983, we believe even a mild recovery later this
year would not be enough to slow the exodus. If, on
the other hand, the drop in economic activity were to
become even more pronounced, migration would
speed up.
Moreover, we expect Mexico's economy to stay de-
pressed for the next two to three years. Demographics
will add to the pool of potential migrants. These
factors are likely to keep the flow of migrants above
the "normal trend" over the period.
Even if the economy recovers in the mid-to-late 1980s,
employment in the United States will remain attrac-
tive because the absolute gap between wages in
Mexico and the United States will almost surely
increase through the rest of this century. As a result,
the numbers of Mexican migrants will remain high.
Should there be widespread political instability in
Mexico, a dramatic increase in those crossing the
border would follow.
The US Embassy reports that Mexican policymakers
view large-scale temporary migration as critical to the
country's economic and social well-being. In a nation-
alistic environment, however, government officials
cannot publicly admit the importance of migration as
a safety valve for social pressures or a source of
foreign exchange. Moreover, political considerations
prevent Mexican leaders from officially negotiating
with the United States for continuing access to labor
markets. As a result, we believe Mexican policy will
continue to push for an open border and fair treat-
ment for Mexican workers in the United States.
Mexican officials believe US immigration initiatives
would not fundamentally change cross-border labor
movements, but are concerned that they would sour
other aspects of the bilateral relationship. According
to US Embassy and academic reports, Mexican deci-
sionmakers believe that US immigration reform
would not alter the supply and demand conditions
that undergird migration. Moreover, they believe US
public opposition precludes the paramilitary opera-
tions they see as necessary to seal the border. Accord-
ing to the same sources, Mexican policymakers be-
lieve the growing political influence of
Mexican-Americans will prevent massive deportations
of the long-term illegals on the scale that occurred
during 1929-33 or in 1954.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
Appendix A
Historic Illegal
Migration Trends
Throughout this century, large numbers of Mexicans
have traveled to the United States to supplement their
standards of living. While many have come to stay,
the majority have made temporary work trips of much
less than a year. Even those that stay longer generally
intend to return eventually to Mexico. During the last
70 years, complex migration networks have developed
in response to economic and social trends in Mexico
and the United States. These linkages frequently
involve whole villages targeted to specific temporary
jobs in the United States over extended periods of
time.'
The first great stimulus to illegal migration this
century was the enormous economic dislocation
caused by the violence of the Mexican Revolution and
the Cristero Rebellion in 1910 through 1929. During
this period some 1.4 million Mexicans, or about one-
tenth of the entire population, left Mexico for the
United States. A backlash, caused in large part by the
Great Depression and growing unemployment in the
United States, resulted in the forced repatriation of
400,000 Mexicans during 1929-33.
The current pattern of short-term, work-related mi-
gration received its major impulse during 1942-64
when temporary migration to the United States be-
came an important part of rural life in Mexico as a
result of the bracero program. Initially, civilian job
shortages caused by World War II encouraged Amer-
ican agribusiness to contract for Mexican workers.
Later, as many as 40 percent of the bracero contracts
were for nonfarm jobs. Contracts covering 4.6 million
work trips were issued for agriculture alone during
1942-64. We estimate that on average about 300,000
legal braceros worked each year in the United States.
At the peak of the program, some 450,000 contracts
were issued annually.
During the bracero years, demographic and economic
trends increased the numbers of Mexicans available
and willing to go to the United States. Unprecedented
population growth more than doubled the rural labor
force. At the same time, commercial agriculture
prospered because of mechanization and extensive
irrigation projects, and subsistence agriculture stag-
nated. These trends significantly increased rural un-
deremployment. As rural incomes fell relative to
urban areas, many farm workers emigrated to the
cities. For others, who were more attached to their
land because they coukrnot sell ejido property rights
or because they lacked skills to compete in urban jobs,
the response was temporary migration to agricultural
jobs in the United States to supplement their incomes.
Even at the beginning of the bracero years, large
numbers of Mexicans without legal contracts began
making periodic work trips to the United States. Cost
differences between following the formal labor con-
tracting rules, and simply ignoring them, encouraged
many to enter the United States without papers-
particularly after they had fulfilled legal work con-
tracts once or twice and had made informal personal
arrangements to continue. In reaction to these illegals,
and to growing unemployment in the United States as
US soldiers returned from the Korean war (1950-53),
an augmented Border Patrol deported more than'a
million undocumented braceros in 1954 in its "Opera-
tion Wetback."
The US Congress let the bracero program lapse at the
end of 1964 and for the first time imposed a ceiling on
immigration from the Western Hemisphere to the
United States. Academic studies report, however, that
the end of the bracero program did not greatly reduce
work trips by Mexicans to the United States, but only
made more of them illegal. Despite the increased
Border Patrol budget, we believe that bracero-type
work trips remained at about 300,000 to 400,000 per
year in the mid-1960s. In the late 1960s and early
1970s, border apprehension data and our analysis
indicate that illegal migration rose to 500,000 to
800,000 per year, as higher education and the Viet-
nam war removed large numbers of young American
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Confidel[LSanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Figure 3
Mexico-United States: Border Apprehensions,
1960-83
I~ I I I
0 1960 65 70 75 80 83a
workers from fields and factories: In 1976 high
population pressures and the first Mexican devalua-
tion in 22 years boosted the flow to about 1 million.
The increased flow encouraged the US Congress to
tighten immigration restrictions and boost the border-
enforcement budget. Even so, we estimate illegal
migration has averaged 800,000 to 1.1 million in
recent years.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84S00552R000300020002-4
Contiaential
Appendix B
An Approach to Counting Illegals
Although we know of no accurate method of counting
illegals-either the number that are currently in the
United States or those that come and go each year-
we believe that our own studies and others by US and
Mexican officials and academics can establish a
meaningful order of magnitude and provide some idea
of changes in the flow of illegals.
We have no reliable data on the number of Mexicans
who successfully cross the border each year. However,
we believe Mexican demographic and employment
data-particularly that of the sending states-indi-
cate that the annual flow will most likely not exceed
2 million this year. US and Mexican surveys continue
to show that 50 to 70 percent of all illegals are rural
males from one of the eight sending states. From the
latest census data we calculate the agricultural work
force in the sending area at just less than 2 million.
Academic studies indicate that while a large number
of these workers migrate the share of those who do so
in any one year is almost surely no greater than half.
Moreover, we reason that if more than half of the
rural work force migrated for four to six months
during the year, domestic farm output would fall to
unacceptable levels. Assuming that rural males from
the principal sending states account for just one-half
of all illegals-the lowest current estimate of their
share-the upper bound for the annual flow of all
illegals would be about 2 million.
Similarly, we use border apprehension data to set a
lower bound of 600,000 for the number of illegal
migrants crossing the border this year. A 1978 Mexi-
can Government survey of 25,138 deported Mexicans
indicated that each had been caught and deported-
on average-twice by the US Border Patrol during
the year. If, as we believe, these figures approximate
the current relationship between the number of appre-
hensions and individual migrants caught, apprehen-
sions of 1.2 million by the Border Patrol would indi-
cate a minimum 600,000 illegal migrants coming into
the United States this year.
Mexico: Estimates of Illegal Aliens Millions
in the United States
1980
0.8-1.0
1981
0.8-1.0
1982
0.9-1.1
1983
1.1 - 1.5
Stock
Semipermanent stock illegals (midyear 1983)
1.4 b - 2.5 c
Temporary stock illegals d (average 1983)
0.3 e - 0.5 r
Total average stock of illegal aliens
(average 1983)
1.7-3.0
a Numbers of different individuals who successfully cross the border
and work in the United States regardless of length of stay.
b Extrapolation of US Census estimates of minimum 1 April 1980
illegal Mexican population. See "Estimates of Illegal Aliens From
Mexico Counted in the 1980 United States Census," by Robert
Warren and Jeffery Passel, April 1983, released to the public in mid-
June.
Assumes Warren-Passel study undercounted 60 percent.
d Weighted average of those who come during 1983, despite length
of stay.
e Assumes temporaries stay on average four months.
f Assumes temporaries stay on average six months.
Our own estimate of 1.1-1.5 million illegal migrants
this year falls in the middle of the bounds set by
Mexican demographic data and border apprehensions.
We believe that a large majority of those apprehended
at the border eventually get into the United States,
and that an equal or greater number are able to enter
without observation each year. Current academic and
press estimates of some 2-3 million border-crossers for
the annual flow are at or above our upper bound.
Demographic studies also can be used to set upper and
lower bounds on the stock of Mexicans living here
indefinitely. Our own studies of Mexican population
data set an upper bound of about 2 million for the
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84S00552R000300020002-4
 Confide.. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
semipermanent stock in 1980. The total of rural males
in Mexico between 15 and 64 years was 5.7 million in
1980, and 2 million illegals would be equivalent to
one-third of the rural males in the migration-prone
years or about half of the work force from the eight
primary sending states. A recent study .at the US
Census Bureau' compared immigration statistics with
the 1980 census and found 931,000 illegal Mexicans
in the United States on 1 April 1980. We believe this
sets a minimum. Based on the two limits, we judge
that as of 1 April 1980 the stock of Mexican illegals
was 1-1.6 million.
Considering these trends to mid-1983, we estimate the
semipermanent stock of Mexican illegal aliens at 1.4-
2.5 million. Then, by adding a weighted average of
the temporary migrants, we put the total at an
average of 1.7-3.0 million. Because visa and alien
registration data indicate that there are currently 1.3
million legal Mexican aliens in the United States, we
estimate that the average stock of Mexican aliens-
legal and illegal-in the United States during 1983
will be 3-4.3 million.
' "Estimates of Illegal Aliens From Mexico Counted in the 1980
United States Census" by Robert Warren and Jeffery Passel of the
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26 :
25X1
25X1
CIA- R D P84SO0552 R000300020002-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4
Confidential
Confidential
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/26: CIA-RDP84SO0552R000300020002-4